Bath & Ne Somerset - 20% Price Drop

[FunkyGibbon]

There are strong indications of significant price drops in my area of Bath. prices now appear to be approximately 20% off their peak achieved about 6 months ago. This is a non-scientific survey based on prices in local estate agent's windows.

[The Masked Tulip]

Bath must have been amongst the first places to see a boom in property prices - all those city traders with their weekend homes. I remember a work colleague telling me that prices had begun to soar in Bath well before I had cottoned on to any UK housing boom other than in Cardiff.

[vicster]

What are people's thoughts now, in late Feb?

A couple of friends have been trying to shift their homes recently and have had very few viewings and no offers. Mind, they've not dropped their asking price. I noted a property the other day down to £145 from £150 which was apparently being sold by an estate agent employee - not sure what to read in that.

I would like to buy soon, but I'm scared off by the thought of huge drops coming our way soon. House prices shot up so fast, a crash is inevitable, n'est pas?

[FunkyGibbon]

It's happening!

In my street of very similar 1930s semis, last summer, I definitely know that one that was advertised for £260,000 sold for just under £250,000.

Now today, I've just seen an almost identical one for sale at £214,950!

(See House for sale in Bath at £214,950)

Asking prices;

260,000-215,000=45,000 - a reduction of 17.3%

Actual Sales prices

249,000-209,000 = 40,000 - a reduction of 16%

[Spirit]

Here in the Mendips there are lots more properties for sale this month, but not many selling. I havent noticed significant reductions yet - just houses coming back on to the market (at the same price they didnt sell for at the end of last year!)

[vicster]

Gibbon - that's good news. Don't know if you've noticed, but there are a fair few places that have been on the market for months and months. One of my friends has dropped the asking on hers by almost 10%, but still nobody's biting despite it being in a good area and in good nick. She's had hardly any viewings. Others in worse areas are just sitting there, from what I can see - I just cannot imagine what would posess someone to buy some of them unless the price dropped by a good 40% or the buyers were barking. If prices in nicer areas fall a bit, there will be no incentive to buy these places at all - I wouldn't be surprised if these over-priced council shacks, with views on the mounted police officers (you know where I mean) just collapse.

We're sitting tight. I just can't see prices for the kind of thing we're after (low-end, 2-bed with a garden, prolly ex-council but no police horses, please) rising over the next 12 months. I'm not expecting any dramatic drops, but a good 20% off the asking seems in order for the kind of place we're after and if homes like the ones on your street, further up the foodchain are falling in value, hopefully there'll be a knock-on effect in coming months.

[Hobo]

want to purchase 2 bed, garden blah blah in bath, cant help but notice same old trash on the market for past 6 months or so.

would like to take advantage of the apparent slow down but feeling pressured to buy when something half decent appears on the market, attracting like bees around a honeypot.......!

so far resisted temptation to buy but still feel that bath has a problem with shortage of affordable (215k) NICE houses.

my predicament........

1. do i get tempted in and buy a house i really want, bidding against others, at top end of budget and pay asking price (despite knowing as a virtual cash-buyer i am in a 'strong position')

2. or should i be content with knocking off £20k for a property that has a lot of 'comprimises' or

3. should i wait for the big CRASH?

anyone watching the bath market who has any view on this?

until tomorrow, i'll just keep moving on. woof.

[The Masked Tulip]

IMPO Bath is very over-priced and has a long way to fall.

[vicster]

IMPO Bath is very over-priced and has a long way to fall.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I agree that Bath prices will fall, but I'm not so sure that they will crash as such. Its a special case (and no, I am not an EA!) in that it is a very nice place to live and people are prepared to pay a lot to live here. I, for example, am prepared to pay a far higher propotion of my income to live here than I would normally - the surroundings are beautiful, the schools are very good (certainly compared to Bristol), there are brilliant parks, the bars and restaurants are pretty good. For now I'm biding my time in a crappy flat (not one of the desirable Georgian numbers) because I'd rather stay here in Bath than ship out to the satellite towns.

There is a desperate shortage of social housing - just about all the houses have been bought so there is extra pressure on families that might otherwise have stayed put, happy with their relatively low HA rents, to stretch themselves and get out of flats and onto the property ladder. Private rents in the city are also high - mortgage payments are still higher, but the extra monthly payments are, in some peoples' eyes, worth the pain of being forced to move on a landlord's whim (and families are less likely to find a LL willing to take them, anyway) losing another deposit. I have little experience of private landlords and their agents elsewhere, but here many are pretty unscrupulous imo.

Having said that, there are a number of houses, just about affordable to us, that have been on the market for months and months. Most are in areas I wouldn't live in (and I'm already living in a less illustrious area, so when I say that it means something!). Several have changed agents and dropped the asking price in that time. There is a lot of overvaluing - and I get the impression talking to people I know who are trying to sell that Bath is being slow to wake up and smell the proverbial coffee. This applies to certain agents as much as to vendors.

Sorry, didn't mean this to be so long! In a nutshell - I see prices falling a good 20% but not much more. If I had the maximum we can raise to hand right this minute, I wouldn't buy. But I would in six months as Bath finally cottons on. This won't be the bottom, but then I'm prepared to lose 15% and enjoy an extra year or so in a house as opposed to the pokey hole we're in now.

Edited May 9, 2005 by vicster

[The Masked Tulip]

I worked in Bath for 6 months and, yes, it is very pleasant there. I used to know some City types who commuted from Bath each day to London. Back in 2000 they got heavily into BTL in Bath - either they have made a killing and sold out or... Only time will tell.

[dinamo]

I agree that Bath prices will fall, but I'm not so sure that they will crash as such.  Its a special case (and no, I am not an EA!) in that it is a very nice place to live and people are prepared to pay a lot to live here.  I, for example, am prepared to pay a far higher propotion of my income to live here than I would normally - the surroundings are beautiful, the schools are very good (certainly compared to Bristol), there are brilliant parks, the bars and restaurants are pretty good.  For now I'm biding my time in a crappy flat (not one of the desirable Georgian numbers) because I'd rather stay here in Bath than ship out to the satellite towns.

There is a desperate shortage of social housing - just about all the houses have been bought so there is extra pressure on families that might otherwise have stayed put, happy with their relatively low HA rents, to stretch themselves and get out of flats and onto the property ladder.  Private rents in the city are also high - mortgage payments are still higher, but the extra monthly payments are, in some peoples' eyes, worth the pain of being forced to move on a landlord's whim (and families are less likely to find a LL willing to take them, anyway) losing another deposit.  I have little experience of private landlords and their agents elsewhere, but here many are pretty unscrupulous imo.

Having said that, there are a number of houses, just about affordable to us, that have been on the market for months and months.  Most are in areas I wouldn't live in (and I'm already living in a less illustrious area, so when I say that it means something!).  Several have changed agents and dropped the asking price in that time.  There is a lot of overvaluing - and I get the impression talking to people I know who are trying to sell that Bath is being slow to wake up and smell the proverbial coffee.  This applies to certain agents as much as to vendors.

Sorry, didn't mean this to be so long!  In a nutshell - I see prices falling a good 20% but not much more.  If I had the maximum we can raise to hand right this minute, I wouldn't buy.  But I would in six months as Bath finally cottons on.  This won't be the bottom, but then I'm prepared to lose 15% and enjoy an extra year or so in a house as opposed to the pokey hole we're in now.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Bath is a p1ssbowl, inhabited by nasty drugged-up locals, faux hippy types and idiots from London who revel in the cliquey social circuit. Prices were hit just as hard there as anywhere else last time. Do yourself a favour and move to a proper city with a semblance of reality and culture (i.e. Bristol)

[Guest boredwaiting]

anyone watching the bath market who has any view on this?

until tomorrow, i'll just keep moving on. woof.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I have been watching the bath market for over two years. Unfortunately i have not see big drops in prices yet. A lot of people say that Bath didn't lose much value in their homes in the last crash (i have no way of knowing if this is true).

I have kept my eye on the combe down area and certainly prices are not dropping but houses are not shifting at all, i have noticed a lot of houses with for sale signs staying up for ages, then coming down only to be replaced by another estate agents later (also some say sold then back on for sale again - not sure what that is all about, but the one major EA in Bath is complete scum, i looked at buying a couple of years ago, i would have paid 170k on a house that needed work, the ea said someone offered 185k, if i matched it it would be mine as i am a first time buyer. I said no, i felt like they were pushing me too much, and it stayed on the market for another 4 months!?!?!? Then sold for 178k)

This one makes me laugh, it's in Odd Down, pretty grimey area - litter everywhere and kids on all the corners. This is a small small house (ex-council)

http://www.andrewsonline.co.uk/buyers/prop...ls.asp?id=12118

These are supposed to be houses for young couples with a small kid i guess.

This one has been here for almost a year

http://www.andrewsonline.co.uk/buyers/prop...ils.asp?id=9239

There was another one on stonehouse for 260k but i have not seen it for a while and net prices show that the houses sold down there for 205k - if it's the same one (there was only two on sale that I saw with this ea) that was a big drop.

Damn scary the tools we have available to us at the moment. I have some other examples but it can be a bit boring..

Edited May 11, 2005 by boredwaiting

[vicster]

the one major EA in Bath is complete scum

Assuming we're talking about the same one, I couldn't agree more. I'd be interested to know exactly how many houses they've shifted in the past six months or so. They seem to be appealing to vendors by quoting high prices, and then sitting on their arses. I don't know how they're getting away with it.

And Dinamo...

idiots from London who revel in the cliquey social circuit

You're right about them, but most of us don't have much to do with 'em. I'm very fond of Bristol - I studied there and still visit it quite often - it's 15 minutes away on the train. Bristol is certainly more vibrant, but in general the schools are poor compared to Bath. And there are plenty of the other sorts you describe in Bristol too, don't forget.

[wazzuck]

The thing about Bath is that the centre is pretty much going to hold out; mainly held up by Londoners moving out of London with large equities from their homes up there.

I have lived around the area all my life bar 12 years up in London, and to be honest I am sick of the place. Dodgy council, awful and ******** planning department, buildings going up in the centre that are more suited in Swindon. A general feeling exists here of discontent with beggars, drunks and not to mention seagulls of all things.

I am now looking to sell up my central flat, move to London then rent and wait for a crash then buy a place there. Hopefully this will happen before my rental outgoings outdo any loss of buying right away and taking a hit on drop of value.

The thing is who knows when the darn prices with ever drop.

I really cant see Bath holding its current value for long outside of the centre.

[vicster]

I did this - it might be a load of rubbish, but it might also be interesting...

The data is from spreadsheets I found here: http://www.hbosplc.com/economy/historicaldataspreadsheet.asp

Not sure what to make of it. Any thoughts - on the market rather than my Excel/Word skills or lack of?

I was trying to find out what happened to Bath property prices during the last crash but didn't really find much. Does anyone have any clearer/earlier data?

BathAndUK.doc

BathAndUK.doc

Edited May 12, 2005 by vicster

[BufferBear Bitcoin Bull]

It looks as if Bath has a long way to fall!

[Guest boredwaiting]

It looks as if Bath has a long way to fall!

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

You're making the assumption that it is going to fall. I really really hope that it does but I won't be holding my breath on that one.

[vicster]

Boredwaiting and others in the environs...

What do you reckon is going to happen with these? I'm guessing that having three very similar houses, all coming on the market with a few days of each other and each within a stone's throw of the other, will put a downwards pressure on the price. Any thoughts?

House One

House Two

House Three

Edited May 12, 2005 by vicster

[BufferBear Bitcoin Bull]

You're making the assumption that it is going to fall. I really really hope that it does but I won't be holding my breath on that one.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I suggest you look at the historical data from Halifax/Nationwide for your chosen area or Vicster's data, which illustrates the situation perfectly. If London can fall, and it is, anywhere can fall. I thought we had passed the debate as to whether prices would fall or not and moved onto how much they will fall by.

Edited May 13, 2005 by Buffer Bear

[BufferBear Bitcoin Bull]

Boredwaiting and others in the environs...

What do you reckon is going to happen with these?  I'm guessing that having three very similar houses, all coming on the market with a few days of each other and each within a stone's throw of the other, will put a downwards pressure on the price.  Any thoughts?

House One

House Two

House Three

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Supply increasing + demand falling= downward pressure in order to achieve a sale.

http://www.sequencehome.co.uk/properties.a...4&Go.x=9&Go.y=8

I think the same concept has already been applied here! I think we can guess what happens to the higher priced properties and the 3 priced the same........They will have to be further reduced to secure a sale. Afterall, it is a buyer's market .

Edited May 13, 2005 by Buffer Bear

[Guest boredwaiting]

Boredwaiting and others in the environs...

What do you reckon is going to happen with these?  I'm guessing that having three very similar houses, all coming on the market with a few days of each other and each within a stone's throw of the other, will put a downwards pressure on the price.  Any thoughts?

House One

House Two

House Three

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Competition is exactly what we want, but with equity falling in london the smart people get out and buy a house somewhere else. somewhere nice with good schools and a nice environment (i think north of the river in bath is fantastic). Thanks for the link on those houses I will watch that. Bath may have its own micro climate for these bubbles.

Batheaston is a desirable area. I would live there or even a bit further out in box. It has very easy access to the M4 and the university (a major employer in bath). And of course is only 30 min stroll into town along a very very nice canal... So far all the houses i have seen have been getting there asking prices (even these council houses). I am watching a couple at the moment and will post here when/if they sell to see what is going on (i will create web page to keep track of everything right now).

With regards to demand and competition i saw a hell of a lot of for sale/ to rent signs in old field park last year, so many in fact that i thought it would make the news in a big way, almost a third of the houses on some streets with signs. It never made the news and places like coronation avenue (street in question) have not dropped in prices, I was very dissapointed and hence now a bit skeptical.

Anyway, it's great to speak to people who are in my neck of the woods and in the same situation. I am originally from London and i do believe that bad things will happen there for sure.

[vicster]

Be sure to post the URL of that web page, won't you!

The house that Gibbon originally posted is still on the market:

http://www.andrewsonline.co.uk/buyers/prop...ls.asp?id=11055

To be fair he only posted it on April 9th I suppose.

[FTBagain]

Hi all,

This is my first post to hpc, so I'll just introduce myself first if that is OK. I'm looking to rejoin the house market after about 10yrs renting. Got married last year and myself and my wife are very keen to have a place of our own. I am also very keen not to get stung as we are at an age that means we need to consider our retirement (still got a long way to go, but mortgages hang around your neck for a long time too!). We have been looking to move in the Bath area for about a year now (currently in rented) but, well you know all about the prices in Bath!

As a techie kind of chap I have been collecting data on houses in the Bath area on a daily basis for nearly 8 months now and some interesting trends are developing. I have been monitoring the numbers of houses for sale in £50k price bands in the BA1 post code on Rightmove. During the spring bounce there was a surge in the number of houses coming on the market in the first quarter of this year. The number of houses under £300k, went up from about 80 to just under 120 and the rise was very steap indeed (I know £300k is a lot of money more than we can afford! but if the market does drop 45%, well , also if the top end falls first then it will push the rest down). It has levelled out somewhat but we have also noted that quite a few seem to be coming back on to the market. No FTB means chains are failing, perhaps!

I also noted today that the numbers of houses at the very expensive end of the market £500k area (dream) have just doubled or there abouts. Could be the smart money is bailing out?

All these extra houses means lots more competition, oh goody!

I have long thought that if this years spring bounce does not hold then the market will crash shortly afterwards, although I have not shouted about this because of lasts years dip / recovery! The news is generally bad this time hopefully come June / July the crash will be reported as such as I think it is already here.

If anyone is interested I'll post some charts next time.

FTBagain

PS wish I had kept my nice 2 bed flat that I bought at the bottom of the last crash :angry: .

[vicster]

Hi FTBagain. Please do post those graphs.

[FTBagain]

Hi FTBagain.  Please do post those graphs. 

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

vicster

I attach the main chart, the others I have need a bit of work to understand them (never thought anyone else would be that interested! so no labels etc).

The chart shows the number of houses in BA1 for less than £200k - £300k in £50k steps, plus one at <£200k for BA1 + 1 mile around. The great thing is that they are all rising, indeed they rose alot today, but it is too early to say if this is the begining of the post 'spring bounce' increase of numbers. The other thing is that there was a leveling off of the numbers during the bounce period, not a drop that you would expect if the market was accelerating. Which suggests that the market has stagnated, all be it at a higher level of activity than at previous months, an analysis supported by the big VI. This means I am probably looking at the same data they are, shame they are such poor data analysists (a point that really offends me :angry: !) otherwise they would look back at historical data and start brushing up their CV's!

As I said in my first post I believe that once the bounce is over there will be very little left to support the market. I am beginning to think that this might well be the beginning of the final phase! but I ain't shouting about it just yet!

Enjoy the graph.

(I hope I have posted it correctly, shout if it don't work. It is in Word.)

FTBagain

House_Numbers_in_BA1.doc

House_Numbers_in_BA1.doc