Rightmove Admit To Falling Prices!

[coolaftershave]

http://business.timesonline.co.uk/

Click on the daily graphic... graph showing house price falling!! source: Rightmove!!!! OMG!

Please tell me I am not seeing things.

[Casual Observer]

http://business.timesonline.co.uk/

Click on the daily graphic... graph showing house price falling!! source: Rightmove!!!! OMG!

Please tell me I am not seeing things.

Everyone thinks they're lying VIs until they tell a story you want to hear!

[Realistbear]

http://business.timesonline.co.uk/

Click on the daily graphic... graph showing house price falling!! source: Rightmove!!!! OMG!

Please tell me I am not seeing things.

The graphic will send shivers of fear down the backs of those who bought into the bubble in the last 3 years. I have not seen such doom and gloom in the papers since the Great Crash. Its baaaaaaack.

House price surge tailing off, says Persimmon

By Liz Chong and Gary Duncan

CONCERNS that Britain’s house price “mini-boom” is running out of steam were fuelled yesterday as Persimmon, the country’s biggest housebuilder,

sounded a warning that prices will not rise

much further this year.

When the builders turn bear the market has already turned. Its going to be interesting as the winter begins to set in.

Edited August 23, 2006 by Realistbear

[Long Gone John]

Now that sentiment is turning wouldn't it be in Rightmoves/EA's best interest to start telling us things are going sour to induce panic selling; there's a lot of money to be made from huge volume's of sales at lower comissions.

[OzzMosiz]

Everyone thinks they're lying VIs until they tell a story you want to hear!

They are they manipulate the figures to fit in. But the falls are so massive, they can no longer fudge the figures

to show positive growth. This must mean prices are REALLY FALLING HARD!

[Europa]

I have not seen such doom and gloom in the papers since the Great Crash. Its baaaaaaack.

House price surge tailing off, says Persimmon

By Liz Chong and Gary Duncan

CONCERNS that Britain’s house price “mini-boom” is running out of steam were fuelled yesterday as Persimmon, the country’s biggest housebuilder,

sounded a warning that prices will not rise

much further this year.

Are we reading the same article?

Persimmon said that prices will not rise much further; they didn't say prices will collapse, that bricks will turn to dust, nor that a plague of pestilence will descend on our land.

Reduced growth; that's all. Relax.

[Realistbear]

Are we reading the same article?

Persimmon said that prices will not rise much further; they didn't say prices will collapse, that bricks will turn to dust, nor that a plague of pestilence will descend on our land.

Reduced growth; that's all. Relax.

As Persimmon’s buyers tend to be owner-occupiers, Mr White said that the company would be most affected when workers began to worry about job security following a series of rate rises

.

As recession deepens jobs are lost. The recent trend in job losses does not spell good news for houses. *

______________________

*

[coolaftershave]

[Europa]

As Persimmon’s buyers tend to be owner-occupiers, Mr White said that the company would be most affected when workers began to worry about job security following a series of rate rises

.

As recession deepens jobs are lost. The recent trend in job losses does not spell good news for houses. *

______________________

*

And off you go again...

"As recession deepens" - we're not in a recession; we are continuing to see growth

"The recent trend in job losses" - The number of people in employment has reached a record level.

[Realistbear]

Looks a bit like what happened in the Great Crash (1989-96), and the Big Drop (1980's crash) and even the Large Slide (late 70's crash). IMO, Great Crash 2 will be a lot steeper on the downside, almost vertical for 6 months levelling off to about 60 degrees for awhile before resuming a more sustainable 30% slide for a couple of years.

Just the thought of it...................... And what is so great is that we all know its going to happen because there never has been a time when there hasn't been a business cycle where prices that went up come back down again. The nemsis to HPI is wages and HPI is so out of line with earnings that the correction must be sharp, long and very painful.

And off you go again...

"As recession deepens" - we're not in a recession; we are continuing to see growth

"The recent trend in job losses" - The number of people in employment has reached a record level.

Recessions start out ever so slowly in the beginning. Unemployment rises (ONS confirms more people on the dole and more out of work--job creation for immigrants will not prevent a full blown employment crash). "Growth" is now one fifth the rate of the Eurozone and slowing as factory gate production figures demonstrate. Gordon's spending spree may be forcing the economy to grow on the back of consumer borrowing but it will be very shortlived. The US is moving into recession also and if they catch a cold........................:

For example, most of the evidence from the domestic economy does not support the view that we need a rise in interest rates at this time.

Consumer confidence is low and consumer expenditure sluggish. Unemployment is rising, wage inflation is benign and yet profit margins are being eroded

- because of increases in National Insurance contributions, pension contributions and the rising costs of dealing with red tape and bureaucracy).

Consequently, company investment is low and falling and this is a prime reason why UK productivity is lacklustre.

In addition equity prices are falling and the sterling exchange rate is rising. Even the Bank's own report acknowledges that domestically generated inflationary pressures at the moment are low and falling.

Despite a growing economy and rising tax receipts the

Government's budget deficit is over 3% of GDP

. As a consequence the broad measure of money supply

(M4) is rising sharply at nearly 15% per annum.

The trade deficit, at £132bn is staggeringly large

compared with our European competitors (and represents 7.5% of GDP) and even when we add in the surplus on financial services the deficit on the current account is still 3% of GDP.

The warning signs are well understood - large deficits on the budget and on the current account together with excessive monetary expansion are a recipe for financial disaster. They inevitably lead to a rise in interest rates which then 'crowds out' the private sector.

http://icwales.icnetwork.co.uk/0300busines...#story_continue

And off you go again...

"As recession deepens" - we're not in a recession; we are continuing to see growth

"The recent trend in job losses" - The number of people in employment has reached a record level.

http://www.statistics.gov.uk/cci/nugget.asp?id=12

The trend in the employment rate is broadly flat

while the trend in the

unemployment rate continues to increase

. The number of people claiming Jobseeker's Allowance benefit and the number of job vacancies have both increased. Growth in average earnings, both excluding and including bonuses, has increased.

The employment rate for people of working age was 74.6 per cent for the three months ending in June 2006,

down

0.1 over the quarter and

down

0.2 over the year.

The unemployment rate was 5.5 per cent,

up

0.3 over the quarter and

up

0.7 over the year. The number of unemployed people

increased

by 92,000 over the quarter and by 243,000 over the year, to reach 1.68 million.

While there may be more jobs--these are being filled by the 467,312 Polish and other immigrants who are willing to pick fruit, wait on tables etc. Our core industries are losing jobs as the ONS stats show. IMO, we are overdue a recession and the hangover from Gordon's Miracle Economy of HPI-MEW will be nasty.

[make my day]

Looks a bit like what happened in the Great Crash (1989-96), and the Big Drop (1980's crash) and even the Large Slide (late 70's crash). IMO, Great Crash 2 will be a lot steeper on the downside, almost vertical for 6 months levelling off to about 60 degrees for awhile before resuming a more sustainable 30% slide for a couple of years.

Just the thought of it...................... And what is so great is that we all know its going to happen because there never has been a time when there hasn't been a business cycle where prices that went up come back down again. The nemsis to HPI is wages and HPI is so out of line with earnings that the correction must be sharp, long and very painful.

Quite agree. However do not underestimate our friend Gordy who must be feverishly pulling the levers of influence in the background to perpetuate the party. The current situation is very similar to this time last year - we could all hear the creaks and groans as the avalanche was about to drop - when Presto! Gordy dropped interest rates which kept the carousel spinning. I hope that this time his hands are more firmly pinned back, but he is an ambitious old school soviet style politician and will stop at nothing to get to no 10 - and 36% of the voters in this country agree with him.

[Realistbear]

Quite agree. However do not underestimate our friend Gordy who must be feverishly pulling the levers of influence in the background to perpetuate the party. The current situation is very similar to this time last year - we could all hear the creaks and groans as the avalanche was about to drop - when Presto! Gordy dropped interest rates which kept the carousel spinning. I hope that this time his hands are more firmly pinned back, but he is an ambitious old school soviet style politician and will stop at nothing to get to no 10 - and 36% of the voters in this country agree with him.

Haven't heard much from Gordy these past week weeks. I can imagine him buried in his office at No. 11 wearing his kilt with a bottle of GlenMorangie on the desk as he feverishly punches out numbers on several calculators with reams of paper on the floor containing all his schemes on how to keep a miracle economy going in the face of reality. In comes John "Jimmy" Reid who promises more immigrants to keep wages supressed and BTL demand high by letting a few more 100,000 in before he gets round to closing the barn door before another 100,000 voters threaten to vote BNP next time around. Gordon is throwing darts at Mervyn's picture and calls his latest proteges who are to join the team at the next meeting to make sure they know who hired them and who can just as easily fire them. His press secretary is on the phone calling the Mirror and the FT pleading with them to back off the house price gloom stories but he gets nowhere as they tell him that Gordon's political star is fading and the new darling of the press is David "Scotty" Cameron who has a nicer tartan than clan Brown.

[Casual Observer]

Are we reading the same article?

Persimmon said that prices will not rise much further; they didn't say prices will collapse, that bricks will turn to dust, nor that a plague of pestilence will descend on our land.

Reduced growth; that's all. Relax.

"Prices will not rise further" = price crash to RB.

I've not seen any bulls on this forum predicting high HPI over the next few years, just no crash. The bulls seem much more moderate and realistic than the bears these days, and their prediction is echoed by many of the industry and media i.e. moderate growth. When the industry predicts it in the media it is picked out as evidence of a crash!

[spline]

Hehe, I couldn’t possibly comment on the excellent “3x” = “300% HPI” sneaky maths-spin on other thread and the rather wishful “bounded by above” = “plummeting freefall into a bottomless pit” on this one.

Edited August 23, 2006 by spline

[Badger]

Everyone thinks they're lying VIs until they tell a story you want to hear!

Doh! Nothing to do with the name of the site do you think? It wasn't called 'Housepriceambiguity.co.uk' last time I looked.

[Goldmember]

THey've been falling for years.

I personally kept check on the monthly prices of housing after the last housing crash. I used Halifax's data. Gradually I realised some of my figures were "wrong". It turned out that Halifax was quietly adjusting prices month after month, year after year, so I gave up keeping track as the figures were obviously meaningless crap.

When there's a slump in consumerism so that retail saies (not the corrupt CPI figure) showed 2% deflation in 2005, then how can people be buying houses?

The figures are skewed when the poor can no longer afford housing. Then, the only houses that trade are the expensive ones as the wealthy can still afford to buy.

The figures are all lies and damned lies. Read your local paper, pick a style of house and focus on the price of that. The house I sold in 2001 was re-sold after almost the identical period that I kept the house. The average growth rate from 1998 to 2001 and 2001 to 2004 was 12% when all the stats were saying 20% plus. M4 in the UK has been increasing aat a 12% rate in recent years.

[dredwerker]

Persimmon forecasts house price rises

By Mark Odell

Published: August 23 2006 03:00 | Last updated: August 23 2006 03:00

House prices are expected to rise by between 3 and 4 per cent next year, according to the country's largest housebuilder.

Persimmon is the first housebuilder to make a forecast for 2007 and it comes in the wake of the Bank ofEngland's decision this month to raise interest rates.

https://registration.ft.com/registration/ba...00779e2340.html

Then I see this - no wonder people get confused. Obviously they have a VI in prices going up so I don't personally believe it.

I have never heard of Persimmon but they have a website and they are buyng land on it - http://www.persimmonhomes.com/