Why Realistbears Ftse "predictions" Aren't

[Sledgehead]

http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/ind...ndpost&p=403286

[Realistbear]

A bad day on the DOW makes it more likely there will be a bad day on the FTSE.

A simple prediction based on a recent and repeating pattern.

The point: to be forewarned is to be forearmed.

Any secret system here? No. But Sledgehead is still trying to argue that there is one that doesn't work!

Sometimes simple ideas are hard to follow I suppose

[Guest wrongmove]

A bad day on the DOW makes it more likely there will be a bad day on the FTSE.

A simple prediction based on a recent and repeating pattern.

The point: to be forewarned is to be forearmed.

Any secret system here? No. But Sledgehead is still trying to argue that there is one that doesn't work!

Sometimes simple ideas are hard to follow I suppose

You know what RB, I think you are right - there is money to be made here. I have noticed recently that the sun sets every night, and then rises again in the morning. I need to study this for a bit longer, but I am sure that I see a pattern. So when I have completed my research into this phenomenon, I am going to start placing bets. Each evening when the sun goes down, I am going to go to Ladbrokes and place a bet that it will rise again in the morning. As I say, I need to research this further before I commit any hard cash, but reckon I could be onto a wimmer here. Don't tell anyone, will you.....

[Sledgehead]

A bad day on the DOW makes it more likely there will be a bad day on the FTSE.

A simple prediction based on a recent and repeating pattern.

The point: to be forewarned is to be forearmed.

Any secret system here? No. But Sledgehead is still trying to argue that there is one that doesn't work!

Sometimes simple ideas are hard to follow I suppose

You are such a t!t. There is no forewarning. There is no "working" method. The ftse MIRRORS the Dow.

It always has. It will so long as they are a major trading partner. I am not TRYING anything. I have SUCEEDED

in showing you up as a shabby charlatan.

" forewarned is to be forearmed", you say. Yet you have NO WAY to arm yourself, because the horse has

already bolted - ie you were NOT forewarned. Th eonly simple thing here is YOU.

You know what RB, I think you are right - there is money to be made here. I have noticed recently that the sun sets every night, and then rises again in the morning. I need to study this for a bit longer, but I am sure that I see a pattern. So when I have completed my research into this phenomenon, I am going to start placing bets. Each evening when the sun goes down, I am going to go to Ladbrokes and place a bet that it will rise again in the morning. As I say, I need to research this further before I commit any hard cash, but reckon I could be onto a wimmer here. Don't tell anyone, will you.....

Hilarious, and spot on! What gets me about Realistbear is he sets himself up as some sort of neo-DrBubb, when he clearly knows f-all. What a tosser! And a dangerous one at that.

How many folks are gonna be inspired to sell at nadirs cos of this idiot's advice. Example. The Dow falls 10% overnight. "Massive crash tomorrow" predicts realistbear, so folks get all wound up by this and sell into the open - quite possibly as bad a time to sell as any. America recovers half its fall in the afternoon session, leaving realistbear's followers feeling sick as parrots. Next thing everybody is talking about how the fall showed full capitulation panic and represents a great buying opportunity.... HAH!

Edited June 20, 2006 by Sledgehead

[Sledgehead]

You know what RB, I think you are right - there is money to be made here. I have noticed recently that the sun sets every night, and then rises again in the morning. I need to study this for a bit longer, but I am sure that I see a pattern.

WM, I too have studied this pattern for some time. My original data suggested that the pattern was not entirely relaible. For instance, some mornings, the rising of the sun is replaced by a general greyness that slowly gets lighter. I spoke to an expert on these things who has reliably informed me that such an effect is termed "clouds"

Under such circumstances, people often refer to the moring being "overcast", since the sun is still, actually, really there. It is still rising, it is just that its appearnce is "overcast" by the "clouds".

Actually the "expert" was paralytic-Pete, a local wino: clearly he has more experience of sunrises than most (being a tramp), but I am nonetheless keen to have this theory confirmed. I'd hate to get into litlgation with Spreadex over this with Pete as my only expert witness.

Cheers.

[godsakes]

You know what RB, I think you are right - there is money to be made here. I have noticed recently that the sun sets every night, and then rises again in the morning. I need to study this for a bit longer, but I am sure that I see a pattern. So when I have completed my research into this phenomenon, I am going to start placing bets. Each evening when the sun goes down, I am going to go to Ladbrokes and place a bet that it will rise again in the morning. As I say, I need to research this further before I commit any hard cash, but reckon I could be onto a wimmer here. Don't tell anyone, will you.....

Love it!

[nimmmm]

This seems to be the sort of thread which turns people off this site. Personal attacks in threads do not make good reading. If you do not like what RB says, fine, take issue, but you are getting carried away.

[Sledgehead]

This seems to be the sort of thread which turns people off this site. Personal attacks in threads do not make good reading. If you do not like what RB says, fine, take issue, but you are getting carried away.

He has been posting daily, so called "predictions" for god knows how long. I appealed to his sense of reason yesterday, urging him to see the error of his ways. He refused to recant, resorting instead to restatement of fallacies and finally, religious obfuscation. The only way to bring to the board's attention the true dangers of his "predictions" was to post a SINGLE thread on the topic. If you feel this constitutes being "carried away", we clearly share no subjective common ground. I can only therefore conclude that we will never agree on this matter. Cheers.

[godsakes]

This seems to be the sort of thread which turns people off this site. Personal attacks in threads do not make good reading. If you do not like what RB says, fine, take issue, but you are getting carried away.

I think RB has got it quite lightly given the amount of mis-information he must have spread.

If you were to ban everyone making personal attacks against TTRTR you'd lose 2/3 of the forum

[Realistbear]

I think RB has got it quite lightly given the amount of mis-information he must have spread.

If you were to ban everyone making personal attacks against TTRTR you'd lose 2/3 of the forum

What is misinformation for a Troll or angry bull is good information for a Bear. Its the old saying: one man's junk is another's treasure.

Now, back to the point that is taking an inordinate amount of effort to get through.

The so called "predictions" about the FTSE following the DOW contain no secret methods to get rich quick. It is simply pointing out a recurring pattern that is being driven by recent fear in the market. The DOW tanks and Europe follows suit.

When you are planning to invest you simply look at the day's result on the DOW and plan your day for Europe accordingly. If you own Mutual Funds in the US that have invested in European stocks you can offload them on the same day as the DOW closes rather than at the close of business the next day after which time Europe may have tanked.

What the Trolls and angry Bulls may not understand, and perhaps some leeway should be given for this, is that the NAV on a mutual fund is set at the close of business in the US regardless of what stocks compose the fund. All and any activity on the European markets are fully priced in at that time. However, if you elect not to sell by the close of business on that day you must wait until the close of business the next day. Now, the next day may be rough in Europe if the DOW closed down the day before. So using the "predictive method" of assuming that Europe will follow the DOW you simply sell your European funds on the same day as the DOW closes down. What have you gained? Nothing but protection from a down day in Europe had you had to wait until the close of business the NEXT day.

Understand now children? THis is not advanced economics or some form of rocket science but blindingly obvious pre-emptive selling to avoid a loss.

It is amazing that such a simple point is missed by Trolls and Bulls who claim to have some knowledge on how the markets work!

Edited June 20, 2006 by Realistbear

[godsakes]

It is amazing that such a simple point is missed by Trolls and Bulls who claim to have some knowledge on how the markets work!

It amazes me that someone who only invests indirectly in the stockmarket via funds would post everyday on this forum about market commentary which has included recommendations about shorting the FTSE. I think you sumed it up with...

one man's junk is another's treasure

I'll leave it for someone else to find a use for your thoughts, i just hope it doesn't involve money

(nothing personal - but it comes to money you need to be careful you don't misled people)

Edited June 20, 2006 by godsakes

[Realistbear]

It amazes me that someone who only invests indirectly in the stockmarket via funds would post everyday on this forum about market commentary which has included recommendations about shorting the FTSE. I think you sumed it up with...

Your insight, sure as hell isn't treasure to me

Like I said, one man's treasure sure as hell isn't alway's another's. Different strokes etc.

I do not like to invest directly in the SM and prefer to invest through mutuals as they spread risk and have experts running them. Some mutuals can generate spectacular returns. E.g. I held Fidelity's Select Energy Service Portfolio that returned as follows:

1 Year 60.10

3 Year 31.26

5 Year 14.40

10 Year 17.30

The following stocks comprise the portfolio:

DIAMOND OFFSHORE DRILLING

GLOBALSANTAFE CORP

NOBLE CORPORATION

NATIONAL-OILWELL VARCO INC

HALLIBURTON CO

BJ SERVICES CO

ENSCO INTL INC

WEATHERFORD INTERNATIONAL LTD

SCHLUMBERGER LTD

BAKER HUGHES INC

The annual management fee is .94%. The fund is no load and no back end redemption fee. 60%+ in a year is tough to beat on your own. I also hold a few stocks that are long term and have recently taken up a minority position in UKC that I bough at 1.41 three months or so ago. It is currently around 1.61.

The downside to most mutuals is that your sell order is executed at the end of trading. This is why the need to decide the day before what you are going to do if the following day looks like a down market. Oops, sorry, getting too complex now.

[Sledgehead]

It is simply pointing out a recurring pattern that is being driven by recent fear in the market. The DOW tanks and Europe follows suit.

I have repeated the following maybe as many as 6 times over the past 24 hours. I post it here not for the benefit of Realistbear, who is quite frankly beyond help, but for others who may set some store in the drivel he posts about the ftse.

1 ) the ftse does not mimick yesterday's US moves the following day: those moves occur in realtime and are not delayed. See the attached chart.

2 ) the mirroring of price movements between US and UK indices is due to the continuous (as opposed to continual) arbitrage via synthetics (derivatives) predicated on a longstanding understanding of our economic interdependence. We did this during market euphoria and market panic. It implies NOTHING about the mood of the market.

Attached : How and why listening to realistbear's "predictions" will and would have lost you money:

Edited June 20, 2006 by Sledgehead

[godsakes]

I do not like to invest directly in the SM and prefer to invest through mutuals as they spread risk and have experts running them.

RB I also invest via mutual funds but only because I'm not an expert!

I don't go around pretending to be some kind of financial guru and neither should you - I can only conclude you're someone who's found an audience and likes the attention.

[Realistbear]

I have repeated the following maybe as many as 6 times over the past 24 hours. I post it here not for the benefit of Realistbear, who is quite frankly beyond help, but for others who may set some store in the drivel he posts about the ftse.

1 ) the ftse does not mimick yesterday's US moves the following day: those moves occur in realtime and are not delayed. See the attached chart.

2 ) the mirroring of price movements between US and UK indices is due to the continuous (as opposed to continual) arbitrage via synthetics (derivatives) predicated on a longstanding understanding of our economic interdependence. We did this during market euphoria and market panic. It implies NOTHING about the mood of the market.

Attached : How and why listening to realistbear's "predictions" will and would have lost you money:

We seem to have the same debate going on in 2 threads. here is the reply already posted on T' other one:

I think there is some thickness here as I don't seem to be getting through. The point is obviously too simple for a complex intellect to understand?

One more time:

1. If you own mutual funds their closing NAV (asset value) is set at the time the market closes factoring in the day's activities.

2. Any sell or buy order is executed at the end of the day's trading (some focused funds trade every 4 hours).

3. The state of the market at the US close of business in NY is likely to influence what happens at the close of business the next day in Europe.

4. If NY had a bad day and you think Europe will follow the next day you sell your European funds before the close of business in NY on the day NY had its bad day. If Europe follows NY the next day as you think it will you will have avoided that day's losses as you sold the day before. You cannot wait until Europe opens to see which way the market goes as a sell order has to wait until after the European market has closed by which time it may be too late to avoid losses.

5. Following this incredibly simple predictive model by selling your funds in NY after the DOW has a bad day you save the next day's grief.

6. Saving a day's grief reduces your losses. Thus following this method cannot lose you money but can save you a day's losses. And I suppose a penny saved is a penny earned and in that sense it is a money making concept. If Europe does not follow NY the next day then your loss is the day's gains in Europe.

Try not to read anything into this blindingly simple mutual fund trading method. It contains no trading secrets or special predictive models other than the obvious--obvious, that is, to people who can think. I am sure everyone who has ever bought and sold funds knows how it works. My original point in all of this was to illustrate how, in a fear driven market, the DOW sets the trendline for Europe to an almost slavish degree. It was also intended as a little wind up for the over analytical and it does seem to have trapped a few Trolls and angry Bulls in its wake. Oh well, such is life on a debating forum.

[Sledgehead]

We seem to have the same debate going on in 2 threads. here is the reply already posted on T' other one:

I think there is some thickness here as I don't seem to be getting through. The point is obviously too simple for a complex intellect to understand?

One more time:

1. If you own mutual funds their closing NAV (asset value) is set at the time the market closes factoring in the day's activities.

2. Any sell or buy order is executed at the end of the day's trading (some focused funds trade every 4 hours).

3. The state of the market at the US close of business in NY is likely to influence what happens at the close of business the next day in Europe.

4. If NY had a bad day and you think Europe will follow the next day you sell your European funds before the close of business in NY on the day NY had its bad day. If Europe follows NY the next day as you think it will you will have avoided that day's losses as you sold the day before. You cannot wait until Europe opens to see which way the market goes as a sell order has to wait until after the European market has closed by which time it may be too late to avoid losses.

5. Following this incredibly simple predictive model by selling your funds in NY after the DOW has a bad day you save the next day's grief.

6. Saving a day's grief reduces your losses. Thus following this method cannot lose you money but can save you a day's losses. And I suppose a penny saved is a penny earned and in that sense it is a money making concept. If Europe does not follow NY the next day then your loss is the day's gains in Europe.

Try not to read anything into this blindingly simple mutual fund trading method. It contains no trading secrets or special predictive models other than the obvious--obvious, that is, to people who can think. I am sure everyone who has ever bought and sold funds knows how it works. My original point in all of this was to illustrate how, in a fear driven market, the DOW sets the trendline for Europe to an almost slavish degree. It was also intended as a little wind up for the over analytical and it does seem to have trapped a few Trolls and angry Bulls in its wake. Oh well, such is life on a debating forum.

OH do forgive me! YOU REFER TO THE ILLEGAL, BANNED AND NOW IMPOSSIBLE STRATEGY OF MARKET-TIMING - TW@T!

Market Timing

Just who the hell do you think you are kidding???

[Realistbear]

RB I also invest via mutual funds but only because I'm not an expert!

I don't go around pretending to be some kind of financial guru and neither should you - I can only conclude you're someone who's found an audience and likes the attention.

My post on the SM gyrations was an observation of a highly predictive pattern. Like all posts on here they are opinion. The attention the thread has attracted, mostly it seems from Angry bulls and a few trolls, is not indicative of a desire for attention but a desire to try to make a point clear. I seem to have failed as SH cannoit see the simplicity and goes on about real time, arbitrage via synthetics and theories of binary economic theory in an open ended market with overlapping trading windows. These complex models may work in a theoretical model but I fail to see what relavance any of it has to the simplicity of my point that the FTSE tends to follow the DOW in which case you can save yourself some losses if you sell the day before rather than wait for the next day's losses to accrue. THis may not be strictly synthetic or have much to do with the binary economic models that derivatives can occasionaly produce but it does prove the simple point that pre-emptive selling can reduce post-trading losses. The point has obviously got lost in its simplicity.

[Sledgehead]

My post on the SM gyrations was an observation of a highly predictive pattern. Like all posts on here they are opinion. The attention the thread has attracted, mostly it seems from Angry bulls and a few trolls, is not indicative of a desire for attention but a desire to try to make a point clear. I seem to have failed as SH cannoit see the simplicity and goes on about real time, arbitrage via synthetics and theories of binary economic theory in an open ended market with overlapping trading windows. These complex models may work in a theoretical model but I fail to see what relavance any of it has to the simplicity of my point that the FTSE tends to follow the DOW in which case you can save yourself some losses if you sell the day before rather than wait for the next day's losses to accrue. THis may not be strictly synthetic or have much to do with the binary economic models that derivatives can occasionaly produce but it does prove the simple point that pre-emptive selling can reduce post-trading losses. The point has obviously got lost in its simplicity.

= verbiose clap trap

[Realistbear]

OH do forgive me! YOU REFER TO THE ILLEGAL, BANNED AND NOW IMPOSSIBLE STRATEGY OF MARKET-TIMING - TW@T!

Market Timing

Just who the hell do you think you are kidding???

Just a decision to sell based on a predictive model. Market timing is no more than buying low and selling high. The timing is a matter of judgment. All traders select a time to buy and sell. Time it wrong and you lose. Can't see any complexity in this as its basic.

I think where you have gone wrong is assuming that the simple model of selling ahead of the day's trading (which mutuals require) is some kind of breakthrough market strategy. It isn't--it a way to save losses that would accrue if your prediction that market A will follow market B turns out to be true.

Deciding to sell a mutual fund at the end of a day's trading based on what you think may happen tomorrow is not yet illegal. However, having said that Fidelity will charge you an excessive trading fee if you flip mutuals too often. In this sense it may be "illegal" as it relates to the rules of the mutual fund. But it is really just to protect the fund from excessive fees as they are meant to be long term investments unlike individual stocks which can be freely traded as often as you wish. The very low fees Fidelity charges for mutauls does not allow for frequent trades.

PS

The illegal trading activity you may be referring to was an issue at Janus, AIM and a few others where after market trading went on based on unsettled NAVs. The short delay between the market close and final settling of the NAV was a window to make a lot of money given the billions that are involved in mutual funds. This has nothing to do with a sell order at the end of trading by an investor. I am not sure if Fidelity was involved in this market activity or not but I believ it has now been terminated by all the mutual fund companies.

Edited June 20, 2006 by Realistbear

[Sledgehead]

Just a decision to sell based on a predictive model. Market timing is no more than buying low and selling high. The timing is a matter of judgment. All traders select a time to buy and sell. Time it wrong and you lose. Can't see any complexity in this as its basic.

I think where you have gone wrong is assuming that the simple model of selling ahead of the day's trading (which mutuals require) is some kind of breakthrough market strategy. It isn't--it a way to save losses that would accrue if your prediction that market A will follow market B turns out to be true.

Deciding to sell a mutual fund at the end of a day's trading based on what you think may happen tomorrow is not yet illegal. However, having said that Fidelity will charge you an excessive trading fee if you flip mutuals too often. In this sense it may be "illegal" as it relates to the rules of the mutual fund. But it is really just to protect the fund from excessive fees as they are meant to be long term investments unlike individual stocks which can be freely traded as often as you wish. The very low fees Fidelity charges for mutauls does not allow for frequent trades.

PS

The illegal trading activity you may be referring to was an issue at Janus, AIM and a few others where after market trading went on based on unsettled NAVs. The short delay between the market close and final settling of the NAV was a window to make a lot of money given the billions that are involved in mutual funds. This has nothing to do with a sell order at the end of trading by an investor. I am not sure if Fidelity was involved in this market activity or not but I believ it has now been terminated by all the mutual fund companies.

You do realise that people are PMing me, begging me to give up becuse you are just too delusional to listen? You are making a complete fool of yourself.

You claim to have spotted a correlation "over the past few weeks" that has existed for years.

You put this correlation down to market fear, when it has existed during times of market euphoria.

You clearly understand that you have made a t!t out of yourself and try to obfuscate the issue by refence to religion and now th eilligal and impossible practice of market timing. I will from now on respond only with the following graphic as proof of your stupidity / dishonesty.

[Realistbear]

You do realise that people are PMing me, begging me to give up becuse you are just too delusional to listen? You are making a complete fool of yourself.

You claim to have spotted a correlation "over the past few weeks" that has existed for years.

You put this correlation down to market fear, when it has existed during times of market euphoria.

You clearly understand that you have made a t!t out of yourself and try to obfuscate the issue by refence to religion and now th eilligal and impossible practice of market timing. I will from now on respond only with the following graphic as proof of your stupidity / dishonesty.

That is right. The DOW has set the direction of the markets for years. Recently more so as the market has been driven by fear and the DOW tended to drop by about 50% less than the following day's trading in Europe.

House markets crash eventually. They have been doing this for years. This hasn't stopped some from arguing that its different this time has it?

The reference to religion was begun by another poster as the record will show. Need to check your facts.

I think the dishonesty here is your failure to admit that you have been making an issue out of something that is obviously too simple for you to comprehend.

You might want to follow the "people" who have been PMing you to stop because I don't think you are making any points other than showing that you can't grasp a simple concept that Market A tends to follow Market B in which case sell based on that model.

Your idea that selling a mutual fund in anticipation of a loss the following day is illegal suggests that you do not understand mutual fund trading. It is very similar to tarding stocks except that the opportunity to trade is restricted. A sell order is delayed until the close of business. You have no opportunity to sell the following day until the close of business that following day. Thus, if NY has a bad day you had better sell that day and not wait until the next day before selling. What is so difficult for you to understand and what do you see as illegal?

[Sledgehead]

...

HOW LISTENING TO REALISTBEAR WILL COST YOU. HE IS EITHER STUPID OR DISHONEST.

[Realistbear]

HOW LISTENING TO REALISTBEAR WILL COST YOU. HE IS EITHER STUPID OR DISHONEST.

I am not, and have not, been talking about shorts or any other form of trading other than selling mutuals funds on the NY market the day before a likely loss the next day in Europe. Such simplicity has escaped SH who suggests that this basic trading strategy is illegal without quoting which laws have been broken.

The stupidity involved is in missing the point in the first place.

I think the advise SH needs to follow is to give it up.

[Sledgehead]

HOW LISTENING TO REALISTBEAR WILL COST YOU. HE IS EITHER STUPID OR DISHONEST. CHARTS DON'T LIE.

[teddyboy]

Now Now boys....

Firstly if the markets were that easy to predict then we would be SKINT or RICH. So they are more volatile than a woman on blob!

Anyone who makes a BIG FINANCIAL decision based on a poster on an internet forum has got to be naive!!!

Forums are about expressing opinions.... between the two of you, you have a clash of opinion. No need to turn into a slanging match!

TB

HOW LISTENING TO REALISTBEAR WILL COST YOU. HE IS EITHER STUPID OR DISHONEST. CHARTS DON'T LIE.

In fairness to RB... Its easy to point at charts in hindsight! His 'prediction' was real time.

TB