Realistbear Posted June 15, 2006 Share Posted June 15, 2006 (edited) Thursday proved to be a pleasant day with the FTSE up 2.04%. The DOW did almost as well: DJ INDUSTR AVERAGE (DJI:^DJI) Index Value: 11,015.19 Trade Time: 9:05PM Change: 198.27 (1.83%) Prev Close: 10,816.92 Open: 10,817.48 Day's Range: 10,817.48 - 11,036.48 52wk Range: 10,098.20 - 11,709.10 Volume: 352,179,232 What has changed? IR are still headed up, perhaps even more so after today's figures from the US and the ECB policymaker's announcement that the Eurozone rates are still low. Oil is headed back up and Iran shows no signs of cutting a deal with the West. Money is trying to find a safe place to go and Japan has been equivocating far too much to engender much confidence and the governor's recent dabbling on the dark side adds to the problem. Emerging markets are a no-go for quite a while as most investors are in a risk-aversion mood lately. The Eurozone is facing a dillema with the threat of a rising Euro and sinking exports. The imbalances are still there with Germany's employment situation still weak and their housing market dropping slightly compared with an average of 7% HPI in France and Spain. One size IR does not apparently fit everyone. Then there is the UK market. Gordon's Miracle Economy is still viewed favourably by the world as evidenced by the fact that the pound has been rising not just against the dollar but also against the Yen and the Euro. But the cycle is coming to an end as unemployment gets worse and the deficits grow. The ONS recently stated that we have lost 116,000 manufacturing jobs since last year and that more people are on the dole as jobs disappear. There is no longer a positive situation with Oil as we are now a net importer. The housing market is showing signs of cracking as the ODPM's reports show that the YoY rises have long since dropped into single figures with most of the regions showing negative gains in recent quarters. The debt mountain stands at over 1.2 trillion and the trend in repossessions is shooting skyward. Mervyn King summed up the situation in the UK by stating that there is a bumpy road ahead. I think he was speaking for the rest of the world also. How about the US? The twin deficits are still bad although the recent couple of months have shown some improvement. The Housing market is already correcting and the Fed don't care as they believe the pain will be confined to the Coastal markets where irrational exhuberance generated excessive froth. The economy is still growing and jobs are being added. The 16 IR hikes have not dented GDP growth which is still in excess of 5%. The talk of a huge drop in the value of the dollar has not happened as those who do business with the US cannot afford to price themselves out. The creditor's similarly cannot afford to have their loans to the US depreciate. Warren B does not like the US $ and he is usually always right except that he did lose almost $1 billion last year betting against the greenback and may be anxious to get his money back by talking the $ down. Gold? It stands at around $575 from a recent high of about $730. Its a wild ride and may have much further to rise, or not. Perhaps there are no clear winners out there at this time. All we can do is to stay away from those things which will be the hardest hit when higher IR bite. Its easy to work out what these might be by asking ourselves what increased in value the most during the time when IR were low. It follows that these items will lose most when IR rise. As for Friday on the FTSE, its a tough call but my instinct tels me it will not be anywhere near as pleasant as today was. Edited June 15, 2006 by Realistbear Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Te Mata Posted June 15, 2006 Share Posted June 15, 2006 Buyers remorse tommorrow ya' reckon? I reckon so too. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DonnieDarker Posted June 15, 2006 Share Posted June 15, 2006 Buyers remorse tommorrow ya' reckon? I reckon so too. And I repeat. Not if you own ABP. This perpetual doom mongering about all financial markets really is looking abit silly. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Realistbear Posted June 15, 2006 Author Share Posted June 15, 2006 (edited) And I repeat. Not if you own ABP. This perpetual doom mongering about all financial markets really is looking abit silly. Some individual stocks will do okay. I am still in utility stocks (US) as people still turn on the lights and run the water. Oil exploration may do okay as the race to develop new fields continues. But consumer stocks and builders? I think we could see another 10% off the FTSE before the summer is over and the HPC should be well underway as we go into Autumn and what is probably going to be another winter from hell. Here is my favourite investment: Fidelity Select Service Portfolio: Average Annual Total Returns 3 (%) as of 05/31/2006 S&P 500 Comp GS Natural Resources 1 Year 60.10 8.64 41.97 3 Year 31.26 11.64 32.64 5 Year 14.40 1.96 13.06 10 Year 17.30 8.35 N/A 60.10% in one year. It took a huge beating over the course of the recent meltdown but should bounce back as there has been no change in the need to look for energy sources. I see it as a buying opportunity for more shares. Edited June 15, 2006 by Realistbear Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needle Posted June 15, 2006 Share Posted June 15, 2006 And I repeat. Not if you own ABP. This perpetual doom mongering about all financial markets really is looking abit silly. In spite of all the recent falls in stocks? Are you mad? Its looking precisely as many said it would look and continues to do so. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Randall Herbert Posted June 15, 2006 Share Posted June 15, 2006 (edited) Google Adds Brought to you by Google Adds Google Adds Google Adds Bet you any money that it all goes tits up again tommorrow........... Google Adds Google Adds Google Adds Google Adds helping to keep the wolf away from the door mmmmm Google Adds This is an advert post which helps to pay for the running of my car, house and providing various luxury items. mmmmmmmmmmGoogle Adds Google Adds Google Adds WAAAAAAARRGGHHHH Google Adds Google Adds Google Adds Edited June 15, 2006 by Randall Herbert Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Realistbear Posted June 15, 2006 Author Share Posted June 15, 2006 Google Adds Brought to you by Google Adds Google Adds Google Adds Bet you any money that it all goes tits up again tommorrow........... Google Adds Google Adds Google Adds Google Adds helping to keep the wolf away from the door mmmmm Google Adds This is an advert post which helps to pay for the running of my car, house and providing various luxury items. mmmmmmmmmmGoogle Adds Google Adds Google Adds WAAAAAAARRGGHHHH Google Adds Google Adds Google Adds I don't see them. Must be my Norton and ad-blocker working efficiently. Nothing but a blank post with a Google Avatar--nothing appears in the two inch column next to the posting area. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest wrongmove Posted June 16, 2006 Share Posted June 16, 2006 (edited) And I repeat. Not if you own ABP. This perpetual doom mongering about all financial markets really is looking abit silly. DTel article But ABP is going up which cancels all this out I guess !! Google Adds Brought to you by Google Adds Google Adds Google Adds Bet you any money that it all goes tits up again tommorrow........... Google Adds Google Adds Google Adds Google Adds helping to keep the wolf away from the door mmmmm Google Adds This is an advert post which helps to pay for the running of my car, house and providing various luxury items. mmmmmmmmmmGoogle Adds Google Adds Google Adds WAAAAAAARRGGHHHH Google Adds Google Adds Google Adds I just scroll down and the Google Ad disappears off the top of the page. The endless wingy posts are far more irritating IMHO ! I'm no fan of the ads, but "keep it real" Back on on topic - FTSE is up about 60pts or more than 1% at the open. Edited June 16, 2006 by wrongmove Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Justice Posted June 16, 2006 Share Posted June 16, 2006 Looks like the markets will be doing well today but i agree that just down the road it's going to crash. we don't know just how much intervention in the market is being done just now but it can not continue too long Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gel Posted June 16, 2006 Share Posted June 16, 2006 (edited) The FTSE will beat its peak of 6200 and then fall like a stone. Within 2 months. Don't say I didn't warn you It's the fruit machine effect. You put in £2, win £5. Lose the £5 you won, so put more in hoping to recover losses...and win the Jackpot...which you then put in again and then some and lose it all. In days like these the stockmarket is looking to blind faith and gut instinct. They know a bear market is on the way...but maybe..if they just sit tight and hold on a bit longer...... That's what makes the difference between someone who knows their stuff and those who don't. I for one don't know much about the markets..which is why I will never invest in the short term. Out on a limb but I reckon the housing market will crach about 6 months after this and it will be compounded by all the houses being thrown on the market by BTL's who don't want to cough up £1000 a piece for every property (Because of HIPS) they own when they aren't making any money as it is. Edited June 16, 2006 by Gel Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Van Posted June 16, 2006 Share Posted June 16, 2006 (edited) Unpleasant? Why? RealistBear, you are correct - nothing has changed. But what few people don't understand is that the market is a forward discounting mechanism, so if nothing has changed, then the market has already has all of the above priced in. FTSE is cheap - fill yer boots (I certainly have been). Edited June 16, 2006 by Van Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Realistbear Posted June 16, 2006 Author Share Posted June 16, 2006 (edited) Unpleasant? Why? RealistBear, you are correct - nothing has changed. But what few people don't understand is that the market is a forward discounting mechanism, so if nothing has changed, then the market has already has all of the above priced in. FTSE is cheap - fill yer boots (I certainly have been). I agree that the market has priced in the known--higher IR, permanently expensive oil. What it has not priced in here is the real state of the economy with so much reliance on consumer spending to keep the things moving. The pound is grossly overvalued and we are getting away with it because manufacturing is becoming less important to the economy as services have taken over under NuLabour. Services are far more reliant on a bullish financial environment and IMO the long bull run for stocks and bonds is coming to a close. How much more M& A activity can there be in a global marketplace that is running tired? A bear market in stocks means much less trading and far fewer commissions to pay tens of thousands of City workers. The bloated house market is stalling out despite what the EAs say. FTBs are gone and move ups can't. Thats spells stagnation and the EAs must be suffering as a result. As the UK is so reliant on HPI to undergird spending a correction will take us down into a protracted recession very quickly. I see the party coming to an end this summer despite the rebound in stocks we are seeing so far. I note that the FTSE is flatlining today and off its high at the open. Hesitancy seems to characterise the market because most traders know nothing has changed. I think we will see some negative affects from the declining dollar very soon. Airbus has already lost a major order to Boeing who are now much more competitive with a cheaper dollar. Technical delays aside the reality is that the order has left Europe. Just one example. Edited June 16, 2006 by Realistbear Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Realistbear Posted June 16, 2006 Author Share Posted June 16, 2006 (edited) FTSE 100 (FSI:^FTSE) Index Value: 5,614.90 Trade Time: 1:53PM Change: 4.40 (0.08%) Prev Close: 5,619.30 Open: 5,619.30 Day's Range: 5,614.20 - 5,701.50 52wk Range: 5,013.40 - 6,137.10 We may have just seen the dead cat bounce. Wall Street set to drop also: http://uk.biz.yahoo.com//16062006/94/wall-...rong-rally.html Friday June 16, 01:52 PM Wall Street was set to open marginally lower on Friday after Thursday’s strong rally gave indices one of their best days in years. Edited June 16, 2006 by Realistbear Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DonnieDarker Posted June 16, 2006 Share Posted June 16, 2006 The problem with this debate and a lot of debates here is that people extrapolate movements in entire money markets and suppose that these will have the same affect on every individual exposed to them. The markets may fall but I resent the tacit suggestions behind this that anyone and everyone who is an investor will suffer by a proportional amount. I still believe there are good opprtunities out there for investement. I guess I am just fatigued by the amount of people on this site who seem to rub their hands when any of the markets takes a knock and predict the apocalypse. It is not going to happen and my take on it is of somebody trying to take opportunities in markets that are falling. I should underline that I am merely an amateur investor with some good advisors! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Realistbear Posted June 16, 2006 Author Share Posted June 16, 2006 It does appear that we got our dissappointing day on the FTSE: FTSE 100 (FSI:^FTSE) Index Value: 5,599.70 Trade Time: 3:57PM Change: 19.60 (0.35%) Prev Close: 5,619.30 Open: 5,619.30 Day's Range: 5,594.30 - 5,701.50 52wk Range: 5,013.40 - 6,137.10 The bell had better hurry up and ring because my bet is that Monday may be back to business as usual to relfect the continuing global imblances and the coming IR hikes everywhere except, of course, in Gordon's Miracle Economy where inflation is but a myth. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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