Am I Alone In This

[hedi]

im not sure how many of you are based in london, but i can tell you that here in the centre everything is selling or under offer.

quite bizzar.

well im in my early fourties and unlike an articule i read the other day on here 1988/89 is not ancient history. actually its part of recent economic cycles. still each to their own

i remember trying to buy somewhere in 1986/7 and thought that prices were completely out of order. then the stock market crash happened. and yeas you quessed it up went house prices, for another two years.

now my memory is not as good as it should be but i remember so many people buying in those panic days of 1989, if we dont buy now then we never will. etc. my brother did and there is a stroy of financial pain. still he was told not too by his brothers.

no i have some points to make. as we know there is a shortage of property so prices will continue to stay highif not grow. well if that is the case then why can i rent any flat in any street in any town, as the same rent as ten years ago if not less. people seem to confuse available property to live in with available property for sale. agaents do this all the time, mainly becasue they dont actually know there is any difference.

lets say it once and for all. there is no shortage of places to live, if there were people would be living on the streets, as it is there are empty flats everywhere. three in a building where i am staying, and there are only five flats, and its sw10. sorry had to get that off my chest.

another point . it seems that the only reason to buy a house is for financial investment. well all good then, but those buying must then accept that investments go up and down. i am reminded when having diner the other week how when i told someone who just turned fourty that house prices can go down, and he replied that they never do, i mentioned the 1989 falling market, and he looked completely bemused.

we can all go round in circles with various economic data all we want, but i can tell you that there is something afoot and not all is as well as it seems.

the market at the moment is made up of panic and gread. that spells disaster. now or later but disaster is sure to follow those financial sentiments, and a lot of what is happening is sentiment.

(just an aside, for my own sake, and i dont care want people may say, debt is a huge huge problem and if people ignore it ,it comes back to bite very hard indeed.)

[look to the past]

Yep lot’s selling my way to0 – prices have got to get to the moon before they crash- we are still in orbit

[DonnieDarker]

I live in London. Norf.

I cant say I'm taking a very detailed interest in the market at the moment but the flats that are for sale in the mansion house I live in are not shifting and one of them has been on sale for 4 months.

They are incredibly overpriced (asking 240k for a 1 bed that is probably worth 200k). If these flats were selling then I wwould be sh*tting myself.

I cant speak for central London though.

[pyewackitt]

Well said Hedi!

I was young in the last crash - but i remember vividly the day in my pre-teens that numerous items of furniture came to be repossed... particularly the sofa... I was watching cartoons from it at the time...

Many of my peers in the 18-30 age bracket do not corrolate the 1986-1989 bust period with this one - to them its just a peak on a graph with little anecdotal evidence. But I think its going to be very, very similar and possibly worse in real terms.

At the moment I have £0 debt, some ISA's and am looking at whether I can afford a few Troy Oz of the Golden stuff.

Many of my friends have HUGE mortgages (9 or 10 x salary etc.) or MASSIVE debts (£30-40K etc.) or absolutely no financial awareness whatsoever! In some sad cases all of the above. But the truly terrifying thing... and it honestly scares the B-Jeez out of me is that NONE OF THEM SEEM TO MIND!!!

I even heard my housemate say the awful words 'renting is just dead money' on the phone the other day - I thought I'd explained it all to her (many times)... but anyway... (some people have to make their own mistakes - I prefer to think I let others do that for me)

I admit I'm debt averse... If i wasn't I would have bought a house at 100% mortgage whilst in University years ago (and would have made a mint, but by luck not planning)... however debt aversion is a wonderful habit in the current climate and the whilst houses in my part of london are still selling (according to the agents) I can see the last quarter Land Reg figures show significant falls in my area.

I expect the Jan-March data will show that the slide is well and truly underway.

Most of these sellers are the last of the clever ones (getting out whilst they can) and the buyers now will probably be the last folks with neg. equity when everyone else is just about back to where they were in 2002/2003...

My gut feeling tells me it's going to be messy from 2006-2010 and perhaps beyond...

- Pye (Property Speculation Ninja )

[DonnieDarker]

Only ANOTHER 4 years to wait then....it does amuse me when people quote dates for a crash.

[look to the past]

Only ANOTHER 4 years to wait then....it does amuse me when people quote dates for a crash.

Mid morning February the 9th 2016 the crash will start – no sh*t I can tell – my tea leaves told me

[pyewackitt]

Only ANOTHER 4 years to wait then....it does amuse me when people quote dates for a crash.

I'm not quoting dates for a crash (my crystal ball is a bit dirty for that level of precision)... I am however suggesting that with rising rates set by the ECB, Fed, Saudi, Japan etc. the current spending/borrowing cycle seems to be coming to an end... a crash of house prices could potentially be a side effect of higher IR's and credit tightening (But doesn't have to be!).

The 4/5 years period is based on the 3/4 years of severe falls after the 1989 peak and on the OECD data sets on housing market cycles. I think the gap between equity market crash and HPC has been widened by the US setting IR's to 1% in the post 9/11 environment... this has meant the upside of the HPI elevator has been in overdrive for longer than it might have been.

Japan has just had a long slow crash in the region of 15 years... I think that's unlikely here but certainly I can't predict the future... I can only model it based on available information and historical precidents...

- Pye (Property Speculation Ninja )

[The Colour]

I cant speak for central London though.

Central London is the same. Last november the flat next to me sold for £304K, and just a few days ago the flat next to that one sold. But this is City Borders, East, one of the only areas of London showing strong growth (as far as I know). Just my luck - this is also my favourite area of London.

I will know what prices are doing in my block once the land registry releases Q1 2006.

[Realistbear]

Its a bit depressing here in the Stratford area of the W Midlands. Nothing moving and EAs marking prices down everywhere. New builds offering big discounts without haggling. Sentiment has definitely soured and people you speak to no longer believe the hype from the mortgage lenders that prices can keep going up. The more astute are terrified of the interest rate hikes coming and wonder whether to try to sell or weathert the storm. Friends from Manchester report much the same scene.

Oh well, the economic cycle has to keep going I suppose and easy money never seems to last forever.

[DonnieDarker]

Central London is the same. Last november the flat next to me sold for £304K, and just a few days ago the flat next to that one sold. But this is City Borders, East, one of the only areas of London showing strong growth (as far as I know). Just my luck - this is also my favourite area of London.

I will know what prices are doing in my block once the land registry releases Q1 2006.

Is this largely down to the fantastic year(s) that the City has had?

[Ignorant Steve]

Its a bit depressing here in the Stratford area of the W Midlands. Nothing moving and EAs marking prices down everywhere. New builds offering big discounts without haggling. Sentiment has definitely soured and people you speak to no longer believe the hype from the mortgage lenders that prices can keep going up. The more astute are terrified of the interest rate hikes coming and wonder whether to try to sell or weathert the storm. Friends from Manchester report much the same scene.

Oh well, the economic cycle has to keep going I suppose and easy money never seems to last forever.

I too have been looking at Stratford, Warwick and Leamington and I strongly disagree.

Lots of stuff is selling. Dodgy stuff isn't as I posted on another thread.

[Realistbear]

I too have been looking at Stratford, Warwick and Leamington and I strongly disagree.

Lots of stuff is selling. Dodgy stuff isn't as I posted on another thread.

Have you looked in the Stratford paper lately? Lots of "new prices" and "no upward chain" (BTLS bailing). New builds still discounting heavily which suggests things are not moving. Halifax closed an office in Evesham recently which suggests business is not as brisk as it was. There is hardly any industry in this area and the slump in Birmingham following the Rover closure has had an effect.

[Ignorant Steve]

Have you looked in the Stratford paper lately? Lots of "new prices" and "no upward chain" (BTLS bailing). New builds still discounting heavily which suggests things are not moving. Halifax closed an office in Evesham recently which suggests business is not as brisk as it was. There is hardly any industry in this area and the slump in Birmingham following the Rover closure has had an effect.

I have looked at the various local papers covering Leamington, Warwick and Stratford.

I think it depends on which side of Stratford you refer to. M40 side looks fairly busy to me. Evesham side looks decidedly dodgy, I think thats to do with commuting time. Having said that there are lots of newish build failing to sell in Warwick and huge local advertising to shift new flats.

Prices are and always have been much cheaper to the West of Stratford. So perhaps they only rose on the back of higher rises nearer M40 and therefore should fall quicker and further IMO.

Re jobs - I had on local radio station the other afternoon. Loads of radio ads asking for skilled and semi skilled workers and a big drive to recruit school leavers into Central Networks.

[Bingley Bloke]

im not sure how many of you are based in london, but i can tell you that here in the centre everything is selling or under offer.

Hmm. I wonder just how many actually are selling or under offer. I know someone who was trying to sell a house but it wasn't shifting so they eventually took it off the market. Next theing the EA's web site said 'Under Offer' and then 'Sold STC'... And I've seen this in numerous places... Property on with one EA... then goes 'Sold STC'... then suddenly appears on another EA's site. I think in many cases these properties aren't selling at all and the vendors are taking their business elsewhere. Then the EA takes the opportunity to pretend they've sold it – Typical VI fraud.

[Guest Winners and Losers]

Hmm. I wonder just how many actually are selling or under offer. I know someone who was trying to sell a house but it wasn't shifting so they eventually took it off the market. Next theing the EA's web site said 'Under Offer' and then 'Sold STC'... And I've seen this in numerous places... Property on with one EA... then goes 'Sold STC'... then suddenly appears on another EA's site. I think in many cases these properties aren't selling at all and the vendors are taking their business elsewhere. Then the EA takes the opportunity to pretend they've sold it – Typical VI fraud.

Yeah, I am not sure I trust what is in front of my eyes. One property on FindaProperty said 'under offer'. The same property on Rightmove did not say 'under offer'. Next thing the property has been taken off Rightmove, but is still on FindaProperty as 'under offer'. There seems to be loads of property 'under offer', i.e. EVERYTHING on FindaProperty. Also, I can't be sure as I don't actually take notes, but I am sure that properties that have been on as STC reappear again for sale - I just get a sense of de ja vu at times.

[Realistbear]

Yeah, I am not sure I trust what is in front of my eyes. One property on FindaProperty said 'under offer'. The same property on Rightmove did not say 'under offer'. Next thing the property has been taken off Rightmove, but is still on FindaProperty as 'under offer'. There seems to be loads of property 'under offer', i.e. EVERYTHING on FindaProperty. Also, I can't be sure as I don't actually take notes, but I am sure that properties that have been on as STC reappear again for sale - I just get a sense of de ja vu at times.

The EAs are terrified of spooking the herd. Signs with "Sold-stc" are comforting to the sheeple.

[Guest Winners and Losers]

The EAs are terrified of spooking the herd. Signs with "Sold-stc" are comforting to the sheeple.

Why isnt the vendor bothered when their property is listed as 'under offer' or STC when it is not?? Is it because they are changing agents anyway? I wouldnt be happy. This is one thing that doesnt happen in Australia. It is strange.

Edited April 6, 2006 by Winners and Losers

[Ignorant Steve]

Why isnt the vendor bothered when their property is listed as 'under offer' or STC when it is not?? Is it because they are changing agents anyway? I wouldnt be happy. This is one thing that doesnt happen in Australia. It is strange.

The house I'm buying was never shown as "Under Offer" or "SSTC" at any time through the sale. The day after we exchanged it was removed. So if anyone was monitoring it you might assume it was withdrawn unsold. Other properties however were and are shown as Under Offer etc.

I've become slightly cynical of the accuracy of Primelocation and Rightmove particulary when you compare their claims with the actual estate agents website or local paper. Being charitable I suspect there's a process lag in updating the various websites.

Another thing I was surprised about was the timing of when some property first appeared on a website compared to when it first appeared on local paper. Often a property was in the local paper at least a week before appearing on any website.