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House Price Crash Forum

pyewackitt

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About pyewackitt

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  1. So What Is Actually Pushing Up House Prices Now?In short it's the inter-generational transfer of wealth, in the form of debt, from the young and aspirational looking to own for the first time or buy a home for growing family. The winners are those with outright ownership, high equity, housing portfolios etc. and the BTL landlords who have turned property owning from a personal life goal into a more competitive commercial market activity at the loss of prospects for the rentier class. The why has this happened ranges from the availability of cheap credit, government subsidies for FTB, the banks. the BoE MPC, the carry trade. foreign investors seeking safe investments, lack of good UK regulation, poor alternative investment options, the concept of flipping and property pr0n convincing people they can make thousands of pounds with feng shui and a new colour scheme.
  2. My understanding was always that the proceeds from a car boot sale were untaxed... however HMRC rules show that as a one off i'm right however proven 'trading' is taxable: http://www.hmrc.gov.uk/guidance/selling/income.htm
  3. The common conception is that everything is ok because all the trades supposedly balance out. The problem is they don't balance evenly across banking institutions and the underlying dependancy is that no bank fails. If we hit the scenario where major banks in EU or UK or US go under then all bets are off because some, especially the larger investment firms or arms, will be highly leveraged on some trades with multiple other banks... There is no bailout money left for such failure.
  4. I've thought the government has been out of options many times before and always they come up with some new way to shaft people at their own expense. Don't be suprised if you see more money pumped into NewBuy scheme, don't be suprised by another Stamp Duty holiday or even changes to the whole Stamp Duty regime, watch out for more right to buy unwritting and key worker/affordability type development support from central and local governments. If prices do start to fall (and London is key for the UK average) then there will be much pressure on the PTB to do something, anything, to show their political interest in the matter.
  5. Think about this for a moment. Interest Rates are still at historical lows as far as rate setting by the BoE is concerned, the fact that mortgage rates are above this is a response to the risk of borrowing in the current market. What this amounts to is that buyers are only being priced out if you expect banks to be loaning at the same pricing as the BoE, if you want banks to be busy ripping off the public and worrying about their risk level then they are behaving perfectly normally. Bottom line is prices are still too high - but it doesn't really matter any more as we will destroy sterling to maintain prices on houses right now...
  6. Would love to see companies deciding that the 'best of the best' were overpriced and taking on tenacious young entrepreneurs who were happy with a performance related bonus that was based on how healthy the company was - not hack and slash assets sales or redundancies or sell and lease back crap. Frankly there are a lot of deadwood CEO's around who can play the numbers game but don't add value.
  7. Think about this... The government is going to spend your Tax money, when they are cutting key services in all areas to underwrite below market value sales of council property to those who could not afford to buy otherwise. They will be selling up existing stock at a time when house prices are astronomical even someone on the average wage has little chance to buy and at a time when the council waiting lists are the longest in history. The money will then be used to fund developers to build smaller houses of which a small proportion of those blocks will be social housing - there will be a lag time between sales and rebuilding of at least years. This is a bunch of percy's robbing peter to pay paul whilst cutting out everyone else. The hardworking people who aren't lucky enough to have blagged the system into social housing are completely shut out from this and the total social housing stock available will fall. If the government wants to build new homes i have no problem with that. If the government wants to sell current stock to get funds to build with during the worst social housing backlog crisis in our generation i have a big problem with that. If they want to sell the property off at massive discounts whilst the average person can barely afford to get a deposit let alone mortgage i have a huge problem with that. If they want to underwrite developers even further than the failed NewBuy is i have a gigantic problem with that. If they want to give away even more publicly owned land to developers for the priviledge of building smaller sized properties which are laughable by EU standard sizes at a time when we have sold off more land, school playing fields etc. than ever before i have a phenomenally huge problem with that. If they expect to be able to do one to fund the other without many years gap between selling and building new then i question their sanity. Mark these words - if the government press ahead with this then we will have an even greater social housing availability problem and associated homelessness and welfare problems only increase in the coming years that will lower quality of life for those hardest up.
  8. There is quite well known to be outright manipulation taking place in silver markets - whether that amounts to conspiracy i'm not sure.
  9. The problem with London and much of the South East is that buying is much more expensive than renting. Rents have gone up but still haven't matched up to the mortgage prices when a normal 10-20% deposit is considered - There is only an upside risk to rates they wont go lower. The only way we can go other than lower prices is currency debasement - whatever happens next in the UK even more people will be impacted.
  10. With a 3 bed semi in Barnet going for this kind of money why is any of this a suprise... http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-22420152.html I mean really
  11. The BoE is full of nitwits and negligence and their only policy is to be reactive to elsewhere and not proactive - this means we will get a change only when the Fed and/or ECB have made a policy change and are substantially amending their IR's to the upside where the lagging BoE will feel compelled to follow because they have no innate capability to decision make.
  12. QE is like a drug - the more you take the more you want. It's not possible to increase economic growth by simply pumping money in at one end to a few limited parties and hoping it gets made use of constructively. The value of fiat money only exists because when don't create it out of thin air and it has some limited nominal representation as a labour or pricing mechanic - the more you need to print to underwrite or lubricate the wheels of the economy itself the further devalued it becomes. The prospect of 'needing' a new currency standard become ever more likely the more we use existing dollars, pounds and euros etc. just to keep things going.
  13. It's important to remember that to help politicans to declare ignorance and objectivity the BoE are charged with rate setting and the OBR with forecasting. Alongside this government forecasts and projections are typically only useful to determine how much a treasury fails to understand what's going on, the figures will usually bear little relation to reality and will always be revised up or down 6 months later to little or no media coverage. Rates have been predicted to rise for some time now if my memory of other projections is right but it's yet to happen because the BoE are walkign the tightrope of devaluation.
  14. Well said - but i think it has more to do with making sure the government is culpable for any fallout of a decision on LTV/LTI... if the ConLibs were to start to promote this policy i have no doubt that the BoE would be happy to comply in setting values once the PTB could be firmly implemented as the cause.
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