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House Price Crash Forum


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Everything posted by pyewackitt

  1. My understanding was always that the proceeds from a car boot sale were untaxed... however HMRC rules show that as a one off i'm right however proven 'trading' is taxable: http://www.hmrc.gov.uk/guidance/selling/income.htm
  2. The common conception is that everything is ok because all the trades supposedly balance out. The problem is they don't balance evenly across banking institutions and the underlying dependancy is that no bank fails. If we hit the scenario where major banks in EU or UK or US go under then all bets are off because some, especially the larger investment firms or arms, will be highly leveraged on some trades with multiple other banks... There is no bailout money left for such failure.
  3. I've thought the government has been out of options many times before and always they come up with some new way to shaft people at their own expense. Don't be suprised if you see more money pumped into NewBuy scheme, don't be suprised by another Stamp Duty holiday or even changes to the whole Stamp Duty regime, watch out for more right to buy unwritting and key worker/affordability type development support from central and local governments. If prices do start to fall (and London is key for the UK average) then there will be much pressure on the PTB to do something, anything, to show their political interest in the matter.
  4. Think about this for a moment. Interest Rates are still at historical lows as far as rate setting by the BoE is concerned, the fact that mortgage rates are above this is a response to the risk of borrowing in the current market. What this amounts to is that buyers are only being priced out if you expect banks to be loaning at the same pricing as the BoE, if you want banks to be busy ripping off the public and worrying about their risk level then they are behaving perfectly normally. Bottom line is prices are still too high - but it doesn't really matter any more as we will destroy sterling to maintain prices on houses right now...
  5. Would love to see companies deciding that the 'best of the best' were overpriced and taking on tenacious young entrepreneurs who were happy with a performance related bonus that was based on how healthy the company was - not hack and slash assets sales or redundancies or sell and lease back crap. Frankly there are a lot of deadwood CEO's around who can play the numbers game but don't add value.
  6. Think about this... The government is going to spend your Tax money, when they are cutting key services in all areas to underwrite below market value sales of council property to those who could not afford to buy otherwise. They will be selling up existing stock at a time when house prices are astronomical even someone on the average wage has little chance to buy and at a time when the council waiting lists are the longest in history. The money will then be used to fund developers to build smaller houses of which a small proportion of those blocks will be social housing - there will be a lag time between sales and rebuilding of at least years. This is a bunch of percy's robbing peter to pay paul whilst cutting out everyone else. The hardworking people who aren't lucky enough to have blagged the system into social housing are completely shut out from this and the total social housing stock available will fall. If the government wants to build new homes i have no problem with that. If the government wants to sell current stock to get funds to build with during the worst social housing backlog crisis in our generation i have a big problem with that. If they want to sell the property off at massive discounts whilst the average person can barely afford to get a deposit let alone mortgage i have a huge problem with that. If they want to underwrite developers even further than the failed NewBuy is i have a gigantic problem with that. If they want to give away even more publicly owned land to developers for the priviledge of building smaller sized properties which are laughable by EU standard sizes at a time when we have sold off more land, school playing fields etc. than ever before i have a phenomenally huge problem with that. If they expect to be able to do one to fund the other without many years gap between selling and building new then i question their sanity. Mark these words - if the government press ahead with this then we will have an even greater social housing availability problem and associated homelessness and welfare problems only increase in the coming years that will lower quality of life for those hardest up.
  7. There is quite well known to be outright manipulation taking place in silver markets - whether that amounts to conspiracy i'm not sure.
  8. The problem with London and much of the South East is that buying is much more expensive than renting. Rents have gone up but still haven't matched up to the mortgage prices when a normal 10-20% deposit is considered - There is only an upside risk to rates they wont go lower. The only way we can go other than lower prices is currency debasement - whatever happens next in the UK even more people will be impacted.
  9. With a 3 bed semi in Barnet going for this kind of money why is any of this a suprise... http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-22420152.html I mean really
  10. The BoE is full of nitwits and negligence and their only policy is to be reactive to elsewhere and not proactive - this means we will get a change only when the Fed and/or ECB have made a policy change and are substantially amending their IR's to the upside where the lagging BoE will feel compelled to follow because they have no innate capability to decision make.
  11. QE is like a drug - the more you take the more you want. It's not possible to increase economic growth by simply pumping money in at one end to a few limited parties and hoping it gets made use of constructively. The value of fiat money only exists because when don't create it out of thin air and it has some limited nominal representation as a labour or pricing mechanic - the more you need to print to underwrite or lubricate the wheels of the economy itself the further devalued it becomes. The prospect of 'needing' a new currency standard become ever more likely the more we use existing dollars, pounds and euros etc. just to keep things going.
  12. It's important to remember that to help politicans to declare ignorance and objectivity the BoE are charged with rate setting and the OBR with forecasting. Alongside this government forecasts and projections are typically only useful to determine how much a treasury fails to understand what's going on, the figures will usually bear little relation to reality and will always be revised up or down 6 months later to little or no media coverage. Rates have been predicted to rise for some time now if my memory of other projections is right but it's yet to happen because the BoE are walkign the tightrope of devaluation.
  13. Well said - but i think it has more to do with making sure the government is culpable for any fallout of a decision on LTV/LTI... if the ConLibs were to start to promote this policy i have no doubt that the BoE would be happy to comply in setting values once the PTB could be firmly implemented as the cause.
  14. Starting from some comments in the BBC news thread it got me thinking on the mini-boom we could be entering and more importantly what will happen as we end the summer and things revert back to the norm. Here's a few starters on things that may happen in the post Olympics UK - try to think of things specific to having a major Olympics in the UK not just summer. 1) Reduced sales of TV's and Sky packages etc. 2) Reduced sales of Booze, BBQ goods etc. 3) Reduced sales of all associated transport, hotels, private lettings etc. 4) Higher unemployment as the Games economy ends 5) Lower income from congestion zone, parking fines and clamping 6) Impact to Olypmics spend related industries - construction, hospitality, catering etc. What else can HPC'ers think of to add? - Pye
  15. I think the post-Olympics market will be very different - there is only so much a s**thole in Hackney is worth once the party is over
  16. The spring bounce may turn out to be as flat as a failed masterchef souffle...
  17. BTL portfolio's built on overleveraging and small equity will be wiped out by minor changes to the base rate - those looking to hold for long term (10+ years) with a good equity holding in their properties (50% or more) have nothing to worry about. Typically a downtrend in housing will go in waves. Different reasons for things to move downhill, the budget and clamp down at the 2mil+ top end was great start in changing sentiment, even if the actually treasury gains will be relatively minor overall. What we desperately need is an end to the era of crazy cheap money and the more inflation stays above 2% the more it will have to happen eventually. I'd love to know where all the bond vigilantes have got to because ultimately a stance by the industry against government bonds is the right starting point for the higher baserate - a lower rating from AAA would also give the same desired effect as the risk balance would neccessitate an increase in returns on bonds. Frankly i'm very much looking forward to seeing the base rates go up from 0.5% as Buffet said 'it's only when the tide goes out you see who has been swimming naked' and right now there are a lot of naked people, especially BTL owners.
  18. Sorry but no Kudos from me - the silly bugger is still re-arranging the chairs on the deck of the titanic... there is a lot of talk about a few billion here or there which makes very little difference even compared to the QE figures let alone deficit or borrowing reductions. We are still in a terrible mess and nothing in this budget has done anything to change that. The baserate of tax payment will be much talked about by the ConLibs as groundbreaking and in fact compared to inflation over the last few years its bugger all difference change against costs of living increases. Good show from the government in commons but it's all smoke and mirrors...
  19. Other people avoiding tax is wrong, the chancellor using perfectly legitimate tax law to classify income as capital gain over earnings is obviously perfectly acceptable!
  20. No.1 is tiny... No.2 is a hideous balsa wood box... 1/2 million doesn't go far when money is free Even if you had 200k cash deposit and 100k joint income borrowing 3x you wouldn't want to live in either of these.
  21. Recession is a vital part of economic growth as it clears out malinvestment and those borderline cases who are undercapitalised or overextended. There will always be pain when this happens but much like pruning back a plant the economy can grow healthier once a recession has taken place. However we are now facing a situaton where QE and policies have been used to delay and limit the recession far more than ever previously. This has created a scenario where more people and businesses are borderline cases and not less. Until a double dip occurs the economy will not return to stronger times - if there is no significant double dip period we will face stagnation for many years (i.e japan).
  22. A little more global warming and sinking med sea level and they will all be able to see it quite clearly....
  23. It would be nice to have the price resets we all know have to happen eventually but frankly i'm less concerned with a 'crash' now than i used to be, not because i care any less and not because the Uk's position with regards housing is any better... if anything it's worse, but rather because i've better understood what's going on and protected myself further. With regards housing the constant 0.5% rate environment will one day be looked upon as a period of unimaginable folly which essentially meant, not a cushion for those with potential repayment issues (loan or mortgage) as intended, but rather meant eventually everyone took on huge capital debts at low repayment cost. That's no awful as a short term action by the BoE/government but as we enter the 4years of near ZIRP (Zero Interest Rate Policy) the number of people stretched to borrow as much as they can afford is ever growing. The UK housing market isn't improving regardless of the number fudging. FTB's are almost non-existant, volumes have dropped off a cliff for most part, the UK av pricing is to some extent being held up by a very small number of international investors buying overpriced London housing partly as a protection from a Eurozone crisis destroying their local currency. Fact is that for more and more UK mainland residents the cost of borrowing is as cheap as it has ever been, however the prices and deposits needed are out of reach. This isn't going to change overnight, this probably won't change for years to come - but when the rates do move upwards very small 1-2% changes to the base rate will have enormous impact on the sums borrowed by many in terms of monthly repayment. To some extent the ZIRP policy becomes self-enforcing when it's held for too long - we are entering that time now. What i mean is that the longer it's held at 0.5% the more and more upside risks are created because there is nowhere else to go with it. Originally it was intended to lesson the repayment burdon and promote spending - now its the norm for many the idea of going back to a historical normative IR of between 5-9% is unthinkable. The thing is that for borrowers this is feeding the addiction... for savers who still haven't cottened onto the fact that the UK is sacrificing them to the masses and taken their assets out of the UK and anything related to the UK economy well... they really need to vote with their financial feet as it were. The safest place to be from a currency dead set on inflation that offers savers no return and is on a policy path to armaggedon is far away, in other currencies, in commodities and in other countries stock markets - if you have money in the UK move it away, the pound will almost certainly not be getting stronger anytime soon - and if it does it will be through crisis in other currencies i.e. Euro, not strong industrial performance. Basically as a country we are digging ourselves an ever deeper hole and like pigs in s**t rolling around in it telling ourselves via the MSM how lucky we are - frankly when the time of reckoning does come, and it will - it always does - there is no new paradigm here, we won't be able to get out of our hole. This would all sound very depressing but i've been on HPC for 7 years now and learnt that governments will only make the situation worse - there are at least 4 or 5 things that the ConLibs can do to make things even more precarious in the next few years and i guarentee you that they will do almost all of them in their desperate desire to be seen to be trying to save something that by all rights and logic should be dead. I think of our situation as something like a scene out of green wing where a patient is braindead and the overeager incompetent doctors is performing a heart bypass surgery for no reason other than knowing that the patient has a problem and he feels he needs to be seen to be trying to fix it. Similarly the governments NewBuy scheme won't make a blind bit of difference because they haven't understood the problem, selling council housing will again make things worse at discounts which cost the public even more - it's best to think of it as a comedy show but of course it will end up like a greek tragedy...
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