undersupply Posted March 1, 2006 Share Posted March 1, 2006 July 2003, the summer of love, with money cheap and easy and days long and sunny. So lots of average properties got bought for 155k. We then had one to two years of HPI depending on where you live,then stagnation or drops depending again on where you live. this 155k property is in YOUR own vicinity. What will it be sold for in 18months? Please explain your vote and timescales of rises and falls. ie if you tick <100k, I think it rose to 170k in august 2004 and dropped 50% over 39months. Enjoy Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AteMoose Posted March 1, 2006 Share Posted March 1, 2006 (edited) I think this is going to be a long drawn out crash/decline, doesnt really matter as im saving We will be in the panic stage in 2007 with small falls of 10->20%, and full scale crash in 2008... Edited March 1, 2006 by moosetea Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
undersupply Posted March 1, 2006 Author Share Posted March 1, 2006 I think this is going to be a long drawn out crash/decline, doesnt really matter as im saving We will be in the panic stage in 2007 with small falls of 10->20%, and full scale crash in 2008... With 15 votes so far, its looking like it will be worth 149k in 18 months time,thats a loss of 6 grand over fourish years, not to count your mortgage payments. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BubblesBurst Posted March 1, 2006 Share Posted March 1, 2006 July 2003, the summer of love, with money cheap and easy and days long and sunny. So lots of average properties got bought for 155k. We then had one to two years of HPI depending on where you live,then stagnation or drops depending again on where you live. this 155k property is in YOUR own vicinity. What will it be sold for in 18months? Please explain your vote and timescales of rises and falls. ie if you tick <100k, I think it rose to 170k in august 2004 and dropped 50% over 39months. Enjoy Who's good at predictions ? Hmmmm...Nationwide, Halifax and Mystic Meg. It'll be sub 140k without a doubt. or I'll eat my house! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shamus Posted March 1, 2006 Share Posted March 1, 2006 On the south coast ... An average house will be about £135k. The house luxury end no more than £300k. Large detached houses in estates will have lost about £100k and be worth £180k. Small houses and large flats £100k-£120k. New build flats £50k-£100k!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Duplex Posted March 1, 2006 Share Posted March 1, 2006 Who is good at predictions ? Mr Yield curve! The Yield Curve Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Elizabeth Posted March 1, 2006 Share Posted March 1, 2006 OK, I went for under 100 for a couple of reasons: Bankrupcy levels Rising unemployment levels Rising global interest rates Reduction of global money supply The exponential impact of negative equity The fact is, if the tap is closed on the global money, the amount of liquidity available for lending will drop so less chance of finding a purchaser, and more chance of having to take a hefty cut to sell. At present the banks are borrowing at 1% and lending at anything from 4-18% (on credit cards). This means to break even they can carry probably 10% defaults. They will have to be far tighter with their lending policies if the cheap money isn't available and the margin becomes the difference between investor savings and interest rates. Bankrupcy will take further money out of the economy (12.5 by what is written off) and in the current situation re fiat currency this will be a further contractor on the economy. If interest rates go up the lending multiples have got to drop. The fact that people can borrow for domestic purposes at 7x mutiples is reliant on the overall cost of the money being within the scope of their take home pay. There are concrete limits. It is just that cheap money has disguised the limits. Rising unemployment means less people liquid to exchange houses. They might be able to hold onto the one they have got, but there will be less fluidity in the market. I disagree with those who say it won't happen overnight. I think that a paradigm theory scenario will kick in. Critical Mass will be reached and it will all start to fall very much like a landslide. When? Next 2-3 years. Do I care? No not really. I am becoming totally demotivated towards the idea of home ownership. It just doesn't seem like the sparkling city in the distance anymore. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Winners and Losers Posted March 1, 2006 Share Posted March 1, 2006 I have a crystal ball - its called Australia. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Elizabeth Posted March 1, 2006 Share Posted March 1, 2006 I have a crystal ball - its called Australia. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Adam Posted March 1, 2006 Share Posted March 1, 2006 I think there'll be 5-10% this year end and 8 - 15% next year end Unlike most, I feel this HPC will be the worst, as this time it really is different - the working population is in decline. Pension strife to follow, high taxes, low incomes. I'm not going to pay their pensions, hospital bills and funeral costs AND buy their overpriced house! I think this may be a 10 - 20 year inflation adjusted decline. But then I'm wrong about almost everything - it could be worse Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Winners and Losers Posted March 1, 2006 Share Posted March 1, 2006 I think there'll be 5-10% this year end and 8 - 15% next year end Unlike most, I feel this HPC will be the worst, as this time it really is different - the working population is in decline. Pension strife to follow, high taxes, low incomes. I'm not going to pay their pensions, hospital bills and funeral costs AND buy their overpriced house! I think this may be a 10 - 20 year inflation adjusted decline. But then I'm wrong about almost everything - it could be worse Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
undersupply Posted March 2, 2006 Author Share Posted March 2, 2006 (edited) Now worth £107,143 after 52 votes. The bears have had their say. This represents a 31 % drop on the purchase price. Anyone want to explain the timescale of this? Edited March 2, 2006 by undersupply Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Fiddlesticks Posted March 2, 2006 Share Posted March 2, 2006 Who's good at predictions? Not many of US it turns out! See http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/ind...?showtopic=3022 Be warned that going on the record with these predictions can create problems later on ... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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