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undersupply

Crystal Ball

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July 2003, the summer of love, with money cheap and easy and days long and sunny.

So lots of average properties got bought for 155k.

We then had one to two years of HPI depending on where you live,then stagnation or drops depending again on where you live.

this 155k property is in YOUR own vicinity.

What will it be sold for in 18months?

Please explain your vote and timescales of rises and falls.

ie if you tick <100k, I think it rose to 170k in august 2004 and dropped 50% over 39months.

Enjoy :P

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I think this is going to be a long drawn out crash/decline, doesnt really matter as im saving :) We will be in the panic stage in 2007 with small falls of 10->20%, and full scale crash in 2008...

Edited by moosetea

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I think this is going to be a long drawn out crash/decline, doesnt really matter as im saving :) We will be in the panic stage in 2007 with small falls of 10->20%, and full scale crash in 2008...

With 15 votes so far, its looking like it will be worth 149k in 18 months time,thats a loss of 6 grand over fourish years, not to count your mortgage payments.

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July 2003, the summer of love, with money cheap and easy and days long and sunny.

So lots of average properties got bought for 155k.

We then had one to two years of HPI depending on where you live,then stagnation or drops depending again on where you live.

this 155k property is in YOUR own vicinity.

What will it be sold for in 18months?

Please explain your vote and timescales of rises and falls.

ie if you tick <100k, I think it rose to 170k in august 2004 and dropped 50% over 39months.

Enjoy :P

Who's good at predictions ? Hmmmm...Nationwide, Halifax and Mystic Meg.

It'll be sub 140k without a doubt. or I'll eat my house!

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On the south coast ...

An average house will be about £135k.

The house luxury end no more than £300k.

Large detached houses in estates will have lost about £100k and be worth £180k.

Small houses and large flats £100k-£120k.

New build flats £50k-£100k!!

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OK, I went for under 100 for a couple of reasons:

Bankrupcy levels

Rising unemployment levels

Rising global interest rates

Reduction of global money supply

The exponential impact of negative equity

The fact is, if the tap is closed on the global money, the amount of liquidity available for lending will drop so less chance of finding a purchaser, and more chance of having to take a hefty cut to sell.

At present the banks are borrowing at 1% and lending at anything from 4-18% (on credit cards). This means to break even they can carry probably 10% defaults. They will have to be far tighter with their lending policies if the cheap money isn't available and the margin becomes the difference between investor savings and interest rates.

Bankrupcy will take further money out of the economy (12.5 by what is written off) and in the current situation re fiat currency this will be a further contractor on the economy.

If interest rates go up the lending multiples have got to drop. The fact that people can borrow for domestic purposes at 7x mutiples is reliant on the overall cost of the money being within the scope of their take home pay. There are concrete limits. It is just that cheap money has disguised the limits.

Rising unemployment means less people liquid to exchange houses. They might be able to hold onto the one they have got, but there will be less fluidity in the market.

I disagree with those who say it won't happen overnight. I think that a paradigm theory scenario will kick in. Critical Mass will be reached and it will all start to fall very much like a landslide.

When? Next 2-3 years. Do I care? No not really. I am becoming totally demotivated towards the idea of home ownership. It just doesn't seem like the sparkling city in the distance anymore.

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I think there'll be 5-10% this year end and 8 - 15% next year end

Unlike most, I feel this HPC will be the worst, as this time it really is different - the working population is in decline.

Pension strife to follow, high taxes, low incomes. I'm not going to pay their pensions, hospital bills and funeral costs AND buy their overpriced house!

I think this may be a 10 - 20 year inflation adjusted decline. But then I'm wrong about almost everything - it could be worse :lol:

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Guest Winners and Losers

I think there'll be 5-10% this year end and 8 - 15% next year end

Unlike most, I feel this HPC will be the worst, as this time it really is different - the working population is in decline.

Pension strife to follow, high taxes, low incomes. I'm not going to pay their pensions, hospital bills and funeral costs AND buy their overpriced house!

I think this may be a 10 - 20 year inflation adjusted decline. But then I'm wrong about almost everything - it could be worse :lol:

:lol::lol::lol:

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Now worth £107,143 after 52 votes.

The bears have had their say.

This represents a 31 % drop on the purchase price.

Anyone want to explain the timescale of this?

Edited by undersupply

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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