Flat Bear Posted July 31, 2023 Share Posted July 31, 2023 3 hours ago, Dreamcasting said: I think another factor is wage increases. There is far too much money out there. Rates need ramping to at least 8% before we see anything noteworthy. I think the pivot will be a base rate of 6% which would mean rates of 7% to 8% so you could be spot on. I think a prolonged base rate north of 6% has to force down prices and depending on how far north could create the conditions for a crash. You are correct in there is vast amount of money out there and the credit squeeze that will take place over the coming years will have a real impact on prices. This could take another 14 months or even longer to take real affect. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mynamehere Posted July 31, 2023 Share Posted July 31, 2023 59 minutes ago, bluegnu said: There's some interesting points about the approval data on the BOE website (my highlighting)... https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/statistics/details/further-details-about-total-lending-to-individuals-data So in theory two existing homeowners could sell each other their houses both covered by existing mortgages but this would trigger 2 'House purchase approvals' even though nothing has really changed. Also, remortgaging is only recorded when a borrower moves to another bank; with the rapid rise and volatility in mortgage rates in recent months it reasonable to assume folks would be shopping around for the cheapest deals when they need to remortgage and so increase the number of recorded remortgages. Here's the approvals data with some history for context... https://uk.investing.com/economic-calendar/mortgage-approvals-211 Net mortgage lending is still incredibly low, only just above 0. Perhaps this could go some way in supporting the idea of existing homeowners just swapping houses alongside low numbers of ftb's entering the market. https://uk.investing.com/economic-calendar/mortgage-lending-664 Net lending needs care, a lot of people moved money from savings into mortgages when rates rose, which would impact net lending. Mortgage rates are still higher than savings rates so it continues to happen. I don't see why someone moving house and porting the mortage, or remortgage shouldn't count? It's still one less expiring mortgage that is refinanced without stress Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz Posted July 31, 2023 Share Posted July 31, 2023 9 hours ago, NoHPCinTheUK said: UK mortgage approvals rose unexpectedly in June despite further increases in interest rates. Bank of England statistics showed net mortgage approvals for house purchase rose to 54,700 from 51,100 the previous month, while approvals for remortgaging rose to 39,100 from 34,100. Analysts had expected the housing market to slow in a month when stubbornly high inflation figures led the central bank to raise interest rates sharply to 5 per cent — the highest level in 15 years — leading lenders to temporarily pull mortgage deals from the market while they repriced them. From the FT. It's over folks, it;s plateau time. the year-on-year numbers are significantly down; the banks are desperately to reel buyers in though... of course... extended mortgage durations, etc. - heaven knows what else (I'm sure we can guess). It is very odd how anyone can "call" anything right now... there is huge volatility economically, politically, etc., worldwide. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A.steve Posted July 31, 2023 Share Posted July 31, 2023 9 hours ago, regprentice said: Approvals don't equate to completed sales. Yes. I'd be interested to see stats on the period between approval and loan... and about the proportion of approvals that never resulted in a loan. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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