eric pebble Posted January 20, 2006 Share Posted January 20, 2006 Hello people!! I haven't been on HPC for a little time -- but - I still stand by everything I said last year [and the year before that]. Prices are ridiculous - and the Vested Interests are hard at it -- spreading lies all over the media that all is "ok" - "mortgage lending is up", "prices are up" etc. etc. It is all a pile of B***SH*T. Look at the big picture - MASSIVE personal debt, China, India, rising unemployent, oil/energy prices massively up, pensions in ruin.... - don't forget the 2.7 million on "incapacity benefit" - most of them are UNEMPLOYED!!! SO - unemployment is ACTUALLY around 3.5-3.8 million!! Anyone out there contemplating buying their first property -- you would be INSANE to buy in this "market": it is RIGGED by the Vested Interests -- and it IS going to fall HUGELY. Whether this happens in a year or 5 or 10 years -- IT WILL FALL. I stand by all I've said before: e.g. http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/ind...61entry259761 . The following may have been posted before - but I think it's quite good -- it gives a balanced view - but the bears win hands down. - http://www.economicsuk.com/mt/mt-comments.cgi?entry_id=255. SO -- Potential FTB's out there -- buy property at your peril! ONLY buy if you get a 60% discount. Just tell the seller - "That's all your getting from me!". Otherwise - you're signing you life away - You've been warned!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dnd Posted January 20, 2006 Share Posted January 20, 2006 (edited) Yep, well, that's OK, but who's shouting the loudest - the VI's through the VI media or you on an internet forum The VI's are going to screw the last out the market before battoning down the hatches and executing their exit stratagies Maybe they are flooding the market with spin just to maintain a stable market position (not a profit)? ie avoid a CRASH!!! Edited January 20, 2006 by dnd Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
karhu Posted January 20, 2006 Share Posted January 20, 2006 (edited) Been out for lunch today with an old friend. Haven't seen him for a while, so even had to ask where he was living. He said that he bought last year and said he has a seriously large motgage and while he doesn't think his property has decreased in value he admitted that it hasn't risen, much to his frustration. Overall he's a clever guy and said that, "he bought at the peak". The reality of large mortgage payments for many tens of years and little capital gain in the next few years is starting to bite. Edited January 20, 2006 by karhu Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eric pebble Posted January 21, 2006 Author Share Posted January 21, 2006 Been out for lunch today with an old friend. Haven't seen him for a while, so even had to ask where he was living. He said that he bought last year and said he has a seriously large motgage and while he doesn't think his property has decreased in value he admitted that it hasn't risen, much to his frustration. Overall he's a clever guy and said that, "he bought at the peak". The reality of large mortgage payments for many tens of years and little capital gain in the next few years is starting to bite. Yep --- there are going to be a lot of people in this boat -- hard hard times ahead I'm afraid. This was all so predictable as, over the last 20+ years the Moneylenders have advanced more and more "money" to lenders knowing FULLY well that this would drive prices AND....... THEIR PROFITS - higher and higher....... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bazzzzzzz Posted January 21, 2006 Share Posted January 21, 2006 Whether this happens in a year or 5 or 10 years -- IT WILL FALL. The issue is when will housing become affordable again. Probably when prices return to their historic average, although many on this forum are likely to buy before we reach that statistical landmark. 10 years, indeed 5, is simply not viable. That's a large chunk out of a person's life especially if they are in their 30's. As far as I'm concerned if prices take 10 years to revert to historic norms this is not a crash. A crash involves dramatic corrections over a short period. This thing started in 2004 and if we have not got at least a 20% reduction off 2005 prices by 2007, then HPC loses and Singing Pig wins IMO. I would expect to be troughing in 5 years if we are truly on the cusp of a crash. Not forgetting by 2007 people would have been waiting 3 years. The whole point of a crash is for the price correction to happen ASAP so that FTB can get their lives back on track, fulfill their aspirations, and, for those who are so inclined, make babies. Oh! And to fulfil the predictions made by the prophets on which their credibility, both financial and intellectual, rests. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gavin Posted January 21, 2006 Share Posted January 21, 2006 People, do not think that the message is getting through quite yet. A guy I work with bought a BTL yesterday. He agreed the price and fixed a 3 year mortgage at 4.55% which I have to admit (the loan itself) is a good deal. He was very chuffed and telling everyone in the office, and I just keep schtum. I have no doubt that we are on the edge of a cliff, but until sentiment turns we won't quite fall off it. I think we still have many months of waiting. ALthough the recent TV programmes like "How to pay your mortgage off in 2 years" and "HOw to be a property developer" are going to make people think differently about investment, the irony is that there are now SO many shows on tv (especially the countless repeats on satellite) that the VIs still have plenty of time to divert Joe Public's attention whilst they pull out their money. Its a long term game for us Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Come On Down Posted January 21, 2006 Share Posted January 21, 2006 My message for FTBers: simply this... IT IS CHEAPER TO RENT ...and there is plenty of choice in most locations If you buy, you will pay MORE each month, and lumber yourself with a Huge mortgage. If you later fall into negative equity (which is likely if prices slide), then you will be truly trapped. Renting, with your savings building each month is the road to freedom. Encumbering yourself with a huge mortgage.. is the road to slavery in this overvalued market. Bubb whilst this is very true and easy to say now. During the last couple of years as house prices have been rising, people desperate to own their own house could not save enough to keep up HPI and decided to take the plunge or wait until HPC - whenever that will occur. Now that HPI is falling to zero and beyond hopefully, all the FTB'ers should save save save. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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