Penge

[worried1]

After being priced out of my own area, I have been monitoring Penge as it seemed reasonable value for money.

Upto last year, I was seeing 2 bed Victorian terraced houses under the £250k stamp duty limit, albeit in need of work.

6 months later and it has all changed. This really caught my attention today:

http://www.zoopla.co.uk/for-sale/details/31707407?search_identifier=7c5654e62c56bc8eef990073b15c7b2a

Given the way prices have gone in the latter part of 2013, this didn't seem too bad at £340k, until I realised it isn't even the whole house. That would make it almost £700k to buy a house that seems as though it would have been well under £300k last year.

That is an exceptional example. In general, it seems that:

2 bed terraces have gone up from £250k to around £400k

Decent 2 bed flats have gone up from under £200k to £300k

Decent 1 bed flats have gone up from under £150k to over £200k

All of this seems to have happened in the last 6 months, certainly in under a year.

What has happened in the area in that time? It does seem well connected, but surely people pouring out of more expensive parts of London can't be driving up prices this quickly?

Anyone know the area?

[Mrs Bear]

After being priced out of my own area, I have been monitoring Penge as it seemed reasonable value for money.

Upto last year, I was seeing 2 bed Victorian terraced houses under the £250k stamp duty limit, albeit in need of work.

6 months later and it has all changed. This really caught my attention today:

http://www.zoopla.co.uk/for-sale/details/31707407?search_identifier=7c5654e62c56bc8eef990073b15c7b2a

Given the way prices have gone in the latter part of 2013, this didn't seem too bad at £340k, until I realised it isn't even the whole house. That would make it almost £700k to buy a house that seems as though it would have been well under £300k last year.

That is an exceptional example. In general, it seems that:

2 bed terraces have gone up from £250k to around £400k

Decent 2 bed flats have gone up from under £200k to £300k

Decent 1 bed flats have gone up from under £150k to over £200k

All of this seems to have happened in the last 6 months, certainly in under a year.

What has happened in the area in that time? It does seem well connected, but surely people pouring out of more expensive parts of London can't be driving up prices this quickly?

Anyone know the area?

Don't know it, but have seen exactly the same in Tooting in the past year or so - prices zooming up so that a period 2 bed maisonette that would have been priced at around £275K a couple of years ago can now be £400K or even more. Non-fashionable areas have become 'sort- after', as the average EA might put it.

[worried1]

Don't know it, but have seen exactly the same in Tooting in the past year or so - prices zooming up so that a period 2 bed maisonette that would have been priced at around £275K a couple of years ago can now be £400K or even more. Non-fashionable areas have become 'sort- after', as the average EA might put it.

Yep, quite similar areas I suppose, but I think that Tooting has had that up & coming moniker attached for a while now probably because of it's proximity to Balham etc.

Penge has always seemed a bit less fashionable still, but has suddenly rocketed. I just can't get my head around prices virtually doubling in less than a year. It makes Kingston/Surbiton's ridiculous growth look very pedestrian and even reasonable!

The Evening Standard property section did an article on Penge yesterday, the usual guff about artisan bakers and independent butchers. They featured a 1 bed flat at £325k and a smallish Victorian house at £700k whilst still referring to it as a 'budget' area. No reference to the fact those prices would have been unheard of a year or so ago.

[Splurge]

Yep, quite similar areas I suppose, but I think that Tooting has had that up & coming moniker attached for a while now probably because of it's proximity to Balham etc.

Penge has always seemed a bit less fashionable still, but has suddenly rocketed. I just can't get my head around prices virtually doubling in less than a year. It makes Kingston/Surbiton's ridiculous growth look very pedestrian and even reasonable!

The Evening Standard property section did an article on Penge yesterday, the usual guff about artisan bakers and independent butchers. They featured a 1 bed flat at £325k and a smallish Victorian house at £700k whilst still referring to it as a 'budget' area. No reference to the fact those prices would have been unheard of a year or so ago.

I think once an area arrives sort of on people's radar the gap between it and established areas closes much more quickly than in the past. I think this is because EA's are much quicker at collating data across different districts and so can pull buyers from other branches where punters may have more resources, funnelling them to these new so called 'opportunities'. Buyers can also do research online making it easier to reconoitre areas that previously wouldn't have been considered. Nothing stays secret for very long these days.

So anyway where are you looking now Gravesend?

[worried1]

So anyway where are you looking now Gravesend?

...or Slough, but only if I move quickly enough!

[worried1]

This looks ridiculous even in the current market:

http://www.zoopla.co.uk/new-homes/details/28568926?search_identifier=7c5654e62c56bc8eef990073b15c7b2a

Over £450 per sqft and look at the garden!

It was only last year that this type of money would buy you the very best houses in Penge, certainly more than two of these.

There have only ever been 8 sales above £630k in the whole SE20 postcode according to Zoopla and that amount now buys you not much more than a starter home.

[SHERWICK]

This looks ridiculous even in the current market:

http://www.zoopla.co.uk/new-homes/details/28568926?search_identifier=7c5654e62c56bc8eef990073b15c7b2a

Over £450 per sqft and look at the garden!

It was only last year that this type of money would buy you the very best houses in Penge, certainly more than two of these.

There have only ever been 8 sales above £630k in the whole SE20 postcode according to Zoopla and that amount now buys you not much more than a starter home.

Well, at least it's near the station so you can get out of Penge fast.

[wotnocrash]

These huge price rises are happening in all the previously unfashionable areas of London. In my old area if Seven sisters, nothing on my old street of terraced houses had sold for more than £275k before last year. Then a couple sold in the mid - high 300s, and I sold mine at the end if last year at £480k, a near doubling of the ceiling price for the road. Probably will be nudging 600k in the second half of this year at the current rate of increase.

It's all buyers priced out of other areas desperate to buy something that are fueling these increases

[sahar00]

I have lived in Penge for 10 years and own two properties here - a fairly average three bed terrace and a one bedroom flat. Having just had the flat valued at £250k and the house at an eye watering £520k I asked the estate agent what was going on?! He claimed the government's help to buy scheme was fuelling demand, but I wasn`t convinced as recent government stats say this scheme only accounted for 0.5% of sales since its introduction.

Here`s what I think is going on in Penge. The woeful primary schools which used to put off many middle income families are on the up, with two having been taken over by Harris and turned into Harris Primary academies. The Crystal Palace redevelopment project is attracting buyer interest. But most important I think is the fairly new presence of dominant heavyweight London-wide estate agents like Foxtons, KFH and Wates who are really affecting things. Previously there were only a few fairly small local estate agents who focused on Penge such as Tudor Park and Asshetons. They knew the area well but they were small. Now these new estate agents with their large pool of registered potential buyers are bringing in people who had been looking in Crystal Palace, East Dulwich, Forest Hill and who probably had never even hear of Penge! Couple that with a general property shortage, fantastic transport links and agents who have the confidence to demand the same prices for Penge as with neighbouring areas, and hey presto.

[iamnumerate]

I have lived in Penge for 10 years and own two properties here - a fairly average three bed terrace and a one bedroom flat. Having just had the flat valued at £250k and the house at an eye watering £520k I asked the estate agent what was going on?! He claimed the government's help to buy scheme was fuelling demand, but I wasn`t convinced as recent government stats say this scheme only accounted for 0.5% of sales since its introduction.

Here`s what I think is going on in Penge. The woeful primary schools which used to put off many middle income families are on the up, with two having been taken over by Harris and turned into Harris Primary academies. The Crystal Palace redevelopment project is attracting buyer interest. But most important I think is the fairly new presence of dominant heavyweight London-wide estate agents like Foxtons, KFH and Wates who are really affecting things. Previously there were only a few fairly small local estate agents who focused on Penge such as Tudor Park and Asshetons. They knew the area well but they were small. Now these new estate agents with their large pool of registered potential buyers are bringing in people who had been looking in Crystal Palace, East Dulwich, Forest Hill and who probably had never even hear of Penge! Couple that with a general property shortage, fantastic transport links and agents who have the confidence to demand the same prices for Penge as with neighbouring areas, and hey presto.

Why not sell the house and move to Bromley? You could get a similar house for £200K less and have £200K in the bank/paid off the mortgage. The transport connections are better as well

[iamnumerate]

This looks ridiculous even in the current market:

http://www.zoopla.co.uk/new-homes/details/28568926?search_identifier=7c5654e62c56bc8eef990073b15c7b2a

Over £450 per sqft and look at the garden!

It was only last year that this type of money would buy you the very best houses in Penge, certainly more than two of these.

There have only ever been 8 sales above £630k in the whole SE20 postcode according to Zoopla and that amount now buys you not much more than a starter home.

You missed the best bit

"Last sale

£89,950 on 9th Jul 1998 "

So it has gone up 7 times in 16 years, I wish wages had done the same.

[worried1]

I have lived in Penge for 10 years and own two properties here - a fairly average three bed terrace and a one bedroom flat. Having just had the flat valued at £250k and the house at an eye watering £520k I asked the estate agent what was going on?! He claimed the government's help to buy scheme was fuelling demand, but I wasn`t convinced as recent government stats say this scheme only accounted for 0.5% of sales since its introduction.

Here`s what I think is going on in Penge. The woeful primary schools which used to put off many middle income families are on the up, with two having been taken over by Harris and turned into Harris Primary academies. The Crystal Palace redevelopment project is attracting buyer interest. But most important I think is the fairly new presence of dominant heavyweight London-wide estate agents like Foxtons, KFH and Wates who are really affecting things. Previously there were only a few fairly small local estate agents who focused on Penge such as Tudor Park and Asshetons. They knew the area well but they were small. Now these new estate agents with their large pool of registered potential buyers are bringing in people who had been looking in Crystal Palace, East Dulwich, Forest Hill and who probably had never even hear of Penge! Couple that with a general property shortage, fantastic transport links and agents who have the confidence to demand the same prices for Penge as with neighbouring areas, and hey presto.

A good summary, and I agree totally with those reasons. When this started happening last year, it was those exact agents that you mention who were putting things on at eye-watering prices that just looked ridiculous compared to the rest of the market. Now the local guys have had to match that because no one is going to agree to sell their house for £350k if KFH are telling them it is worth over £500k!

I wonder if the postcode is having an affect as well? I know the SE postcodes are hardly snobby, but I expect that a few of the people being forced out of more central London areas might take some comfort from staying within the London postcode area rather than moving out further. Who knows?

Certainly the Victorian housing stock is doing no harm because this seems to be a big draw for those moving out of London. As I have mentioned several times on the Kingston thread, the Tolworth district has now become one of the most expensive parts of that area after years of being one of the cheapest and the only reason that I can see is that more of the original victorian housing stock has been retained there than in the nicer parts. Nothing else has changed.

The reason that these areas amaze me so much is that the information about previous selling prices is so freely available. I'd personally find it very difficult to buy a house which had gone up 50% in value in the previous year, but most people seem to be not only happy to do that, but they take it as a sign of future growth potential.

[worried1]

You missed the best bit

"Last sale

£89,950 on 9th Jul 1998 "

So it has gone up 7 times in 16 years, I wish wages had done the same.

I assumed that the £90k related to a previous property and this has been build instead, but not sure.

Either way, it is a silly increase because the house can't have been that different.

I still think it is the 100% increase in 2 years that is the most amazing statistic for me, but it is all crazy.

[Jason the 4th]

Why not sell the house and move to Bromley? You could get a similar house for £200K less and have £200K in the bank/paid off the mortgage. The transport connections are better as well

In many ways, that's the interesting thing. I grew up in Penge, and when I was a kid, prices there were much lower than places like Bromley, West Wickham etc. Nowadays a house in Penge is more than a comparable one in much of Bromley, and actually broadly comparable with something similar in West Wickham. That would have been unthinkable 20 years ago.

[iamnumerate]

In many ways, that's the interesting thing. I grew up in Penge, and when I was a kid, prices there were much lower than places like Bromley, West Wickham etc. Nowadays a house in Penge is more than a comparable one in much of Bromley, and actually broadly comparable with something similar in West Wickham. That would have been unthinkable 20 years ago.

That is my experience as well. Although prices in Bromley are mad, compared to many parts of London they are relatively reasonable. I think you could get a lot of money if you were to trade down to Bromley. I am not quite sure why this is, you would expect all areas to rise by similar amounts.

Certainly the money you save on train fares to Penge you more than lose on extra mortgage interest (and places in the home counties, with higher commuting costs, have gone up a lot so that can't be the reason).

Grove Park is another area where prices are less crazy compared to others parts of London.

[worried1]

In many ways, that's the interesting thing. I grew up in Penge, and when I was a kid, prices there were much lower than places like Bromley, West Wickham etc. Nowadays a house in Penge is more than a comparable one in much of Bromley, and actually broadly comparable with something similar in West Wickham. That would have been unthinkable 20 years ago.

I have seen the same as well in other parts of London .Back in the 80s the 'dream' for most people seemed to be to move out into the commuter belt to places like Sevenoaks or Guildford. Those that couldn't do that would put up with the leafier of the outer suburbs like Bromley, and no one really wanted to stay in the small Victorian houses of the suburbs a bit closer to London. No one even really wanted to live in vast swathes of Central London back then.

That has completely changed now. If people can't afford Central London a good number will do anything to stay as close as possible rather than move too far out. That is why a small terraced house in Penge will cost at least as much as the equivalent house in Sevenoaks which would have been unthinkable even 2 years ago.

The speed at which it has happened is the thing that amazes me with 50% annual rises in areas like this making other areas of London look almost stagnant even though they have been rising as well.

[worried1]

That is my experience as well. Although prices in Bromley are mad, compared to many parts of London they are relatively reasonable. I think you could get a lot of money if you were to trade down to Bromley. I am not quite sure why this is, you would expect all areas to rise by similar amounts.

Certainly the money you save on train fares to Penge you more than lose on extra mortgage interest (and places in the home counties, with higher commuting costs, have gone up a lot so that can't be the reason).

Grove Park is another area where prices are less crazy compared to others parts of London.

A lot of the Zone 4-6 suburbs have not really seen the massive rises. Orpington and Bromley in the SE, Harrow in the NW seemed to have escaped the real high HPI, whilst previously cheaper areas like Penge and Tolworth have rocketed.

I think a lot of it is to do with housing stock. People these days love the Victorian terraced houses where as people buying 30 years ago would go for anything else to stay out of one of those.

[sahar00]

Why not sell the house and move to Bromley? You could get a similar house for £200K less and have £200K in the bank/paid off the mortgage. The transport connections are better as well

Would do if I was rational and logical. But I'm a bona fide city girl and can't wait for the kids to fly the nest so I can cash in and scurry off to (probably) a cupboard in Borough!

[iamnumerate]

Would do if I was rational and logical. But I'm a bona fide city girl and can't wait for the kids to fly the nest so I can cash in and scurry off to (probably) a cupboard in Borough!

IMHO Penge is only slightly less suburban than Bromley but if it makes you happy believing that it isn't.

[worried1]

IMHO Penge is only slightly less suburban than Bromley but if it makes you happy believing that it isn't.

I think that sahar00 mean't that they want to move to the city from Penge rather than suggesting Penge is not suburban.

I definitely see Penge as suburbia, but I think it will end up a bit different to Bromley because of the type of people that it's Victorian housing is attracting. The high street is very depressed at the moment, and if this influx of money wakes it up, I think it will be more cafes/restaurants and small shops rather than the big chains like in Bromley.

[iamnumerate]

I think that sahar00 mean't that they want to move to the city from Penge rather than suggesting Penge is not suburban.

Ok sorry my mistake.

I definitely see Penge as suburbia, but I think it will end up a bit different to Bromley because of the type of people that it's Victorian housing is attracting. The high street is very depressed at the moment, and if this influx of money wakes it up, I think it will be more cafes/restaurants and small shops rather than the big chains like in Bromley.

I don't really care if my house is victorian/post war etc (FWIW I do live in a Victorian house). For me it is the space, cost etc which is more important.

If I could get £200k moving from Bromley to Penge I would be very very tempted.

[worried1]

I don't really care if my house is victorian/post war etc (FWIW I do live in a Victorian house). For me it is the space, cost etc which is more important.

If I could get £200k moving from Bromley to Penge I would be very very tempted.

You are sensible, though. A lot of people moving out of London armed with big piles of equity/debt are not.

I'd do the same as you as I can't believe how much Penge has gone up in price over the last year or so. Penge was much cheaper than Bromley until very recently and I can't see much has changed to make it more expensive now.

If we were having this conversation in 2012, it would more than likely have been along the lines of 'I'd like to buy in Bromley, but I'll have to settle for Penge because it is so much cheaper'. Now the conversation is about moving from Penge to Bromley to release equity. Quite a change in under 2 years!

Here is an example from today. £560k for a terraced house and this is at the Anerley end, so I doubt the transport is even as good:

http://www.zoopla.co.uk/for-sale/property/penge/?include_retirement_homes=true&include_shared_ownership=true&new_homes=include&q=Penge%2C%20London&results_sort=newest_listings&search_source=home

I bet you could do a lot better than that with that money in Bromley and still have just as quick a commute.

[iamnumerate]

You are sensible, though. A lot of people moving out of London armed with big piles of equity/debt are not.

I'd do the same as you as I can't believe how much Penge has gone up in price over the last year or so. Penge was much cheaper than Bromley until very recently and I can't see much has changed to make it more expensive now.

If we were having this conversation in 2012, it would more than likely have been along the lines of 'I'd like to buy in Bromley, but I'll have to settle for Penge because it is so much cheaper'. Now the conversation is about moving from Penge to Bromley to release equity. Quite a change in under 2 years!

Here is an example from today. £560k for a terraced house and this is at the Anerley end, so I doubt the transport is even as good:

http://www.zoopla.co.uk/for-sale/property/penge/?include_retirement_homes=true&include_shared_ownership=true&new_homes=include&q=Penge%2C%20London&results_sort=newest_listings&search_source=home

I bet you could do a lot better than that with that money in Bromley and still have just as quick a commute.

I think you are right, in fact some commutes would be quicker.

I think the amount - £560 K is so scary - in 2009 it went for sale for £250k - how much modernisation have they done?

[worried1]

I think you are right, in fact some commutes would be quicker.

I think the amount - £560 K is so scary - in 2009 it went for sale for £250k - how much modernisation have they done?

Small extension on the back, carbuncle on the roof and general re-fit. They might have spent £100k if they did everything at retail prices through big companies, but much less than that if they knew what they were doing.

So, say it was worth £325k in 2010, probably £400k by 2012. £160k is 40% in 2 years which is frightening, but not as bad as some I have seen in this area which are up that much in 1 year!

[worried1]

Now Penge smashes through the £500 per sqft barrier - at least according to one agent:

http://www.zoopla.co.uk/for-sale/details/32720975?search_identifier=7c5654e62c56bc8eef990073b15c7b2a

http://www.zoopla.co.uk/for-sale/details/32720974?search_identifier=7c5654e62c56bc8eef990073b15c7b2a

The highest price ever paid in Phoenix Road is £385k, so they want 75% more for that one. In Southey Street, there was one sale at £438k in 2013, so this one is 'only' a 42% increase in a year, but then it hasn't even been refurbished...