Money Week's Money Morning Email

[Guest]

And before we forget – put December 5th down in your diaries. That’s when Gordon Brown, MoneyWeek Chancellor of the Year since 1998, delivers his Pre-Budget Report. We’ll no doubt be treated to a speech full of favourable comparisons to the few global economies now growing more slowly than the UK’s. We can also expect several mentions of the impact of high oil prices on growth, while fingers will also be wagged at Europe, for hurting UK export growth by refusing to take Mr Brown’s advice on how to run an economy.

What he won’t mention is how his tax hikes and lavish public sector spending have hammered the economy. Nor will he breathe a word about the convoluted new stealth taxes he’ll have spent the past six months feverishly dreaming up.

But don’t worry – we’ll check out the small print for you, both here and in MoneyWeek.

These guys, jeez, I like their style!

[Too expensive to trade up]

They are not sitting on the fence are they! Does anyone here subscribe to Moneyweek? From what I've seen of it it would seem to be the a useful magazine to have.

Edited November 18, 2005 by Too expensive to trade up

[schadenfreude]

Today's times quotes the chancellor warming up to the pre-budget report:

On housing

'one of the things that struck me during the election was how many young couples were trying to buy homes for the first time' So far so good, then..

'In any other decade, except this one, the kind of house price rises we have seen in the last three or four years would have had the same effect (referring to how rising oil prices would have led to a recession in any other decade).

Goes on

Mr Brown makes clear that housing will be one of his priorities in the final years at the treasury. 'Something has to be done to increase the supply of housung' again, not bad

Then the killer...

'Various schemes are being drawn up to tempt more investors into housing and make mortgages more flexible, such as the much vaunted share equity schemes'

[Pippa]

They are not sitting on the fence are they! Does anyone here subscribe to Moneyweek? From what I've seen of it it would seem to be the a useful magazine to have.

Moneyweek is fantastic...I think a fair few folks on here read it. Been getting it since March and it's worth every penny - try the free subscription first though (like I did before getting hooked)

[Cornish Pasty]

Good crossword too...lol

and merryn... what a girl!

[The Masked Tulip]

I think mags like Moneyweek have long ago sussed Brown out whereas the trendy left wingers in the Beeb and Co are still in awe of Liebour being in power.

Basically, the UK economy is screwed. Simple as that.

We have the situation now where Public Sector jobs are increasing whilst private sector ones are decreasing. Public Sector workers have SUPPOSEDLY secure pensions - they may get a shock in 20 years time though - whilst private sector works have seen their pensions taxed away.

The enormous amount of debt that the UK is in is horrendous and everything is, currently, being ignored because of the feelgood factor of HPs over the past 5 years. It is economic madness.

Having said that, I am seriously considering going and getting a public sector job - if you can't beat them join them!

[Guest]

I think mags like Moneyweek have long ago sussed Brown out whereas the trendy left wingers in the Beeb and Co are still in awe of Liebour being in power.

Basically, the UK economy is screwed. Simple as that.

We have the situation now where Public Sector jobs are increasing whilst private sector ones are decreasing. Public Sector workers have SUPPOSEDLY secure pensions - they may get a shock in 20 years time though - whilst private sector works have seen their pensions taxed away.

The enormous amount of debt that the UK is in is horrendous and everything is, currently, being ignored because of the feelgood factor of HPs over the past 5 years. It is economic madness.

Having said that, I am seriously considering going and getting a public sector job - if you can't beat them join them!

They'll get a shock in 20 years time when they find out their houses aren't worth anything anyway, because there's less young people to buy the ******* things.

Go and get that public sector job. You'll be in good company during the recession!

PS. You mis-spelled "Labour".

[Too expensive to trade up]

Moneyweek is fantastic...I think a fair few folks on here read it. Been getting it since March and it's worth every penny - try the free subscription first though (like I did before getting hooked)

Thank you. I'll go and have a look at the free sub.

[Guest Riser]

Today's times quotes the chancellor warming up to the pre-budget report:

On housing

'one of the things that struck me during the election was how many young couples were trying to buy homes for the first time' So far so good, then..

'In any other decade, except this one, the kind of house price rises we have seen in the last three or four years would have had the same effect (referring to how rising oil prices would have led to a recession in any other decade).

Goes on

Mr Brown makes clear that housing will be one of his priorities in the final years at the treasury. 'Something has to be done to increase the supply of housung' again, not bad

Then the killer...

'Various schemes are being drawn up to tempt more investors into housing and make mortgages more flexible, such as the much vaunted share equity schemes'

Brown's economy depends on rising house prices without them he is screwed:

1. Less people MEW causing people to stop spending leading to higher unemployment and loss of the feel good factor that has lead people to turn a blind eye to his economic failings

2. Lower prices reduce tax receipts from Capital Gains, Inheretance tax, and stamp duty

3. Lack of HPI causes investors to flee the housing market adding to the speed of the crash

4. More pensioners meet needs testing criteria for pensions as value of property declines leaving them with less capital as they scale down

5. Negative equity and end of MEW leads to massive default on debt causing credit crunch as banks tighten leanding controls

6. Once Housing market is past tipping point Brown will order rush to increase interest rates to fight soaring inflation. Inflation will lead to wage inflation and unrest in the public sector.

7. Holding interest rates down too long will cause sterling to fall on FOREX and now we are a net importer of energy, real inflation will soar, as it has been doing for some time

8. less than a year after taking over from Blair early next year Brown will face a vote of no confidence and traditional labour will gain control once again. The Nu Labour experiment will end in failure

[The Masked Tulip]

Go and get that public sector job. You'll be in good company during the recession!

Sarcasm obviously goes flying over your head.

PS. You mis-spelled "Labour".

I think you find it was intentional!

[Guest]

I know you delibrately mis-spelled Labour - I was being sarcastic.

PS. Thanks for your analysis, Riser!

Edited November 18, 2005 by megaflop