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House Price Crash Forum


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About schadenfreude

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  1. Donnie, you can't win. I'm debt free, renting, 2 kids. My mother worries about us not 'owning' a home. My brother, (2 kids too), has slavishly stuck with the must own philosophy, is drowning in debt, and my mother has sleepless nights about how they will get by. HPI sure does screwup families.
  2. This'll make that overseas property 'investment' a little more expensive. Of course, those who have bought already have effectively hedged against falling sterling. But, if the US market tanks, any dollar losses will translate to a lot more £ pain. Funny things markets....
  3. ...and of course oil is priced in dollars - so a weaker pound makes already inflationary energy price pressures much worse. A weak pound also means that imports from the Far East become more expensive - negating the China effect that has dampened headline inflation. Without this effect, the CPI will start to rise above BOE targets, forcing it to raise rates. It really is a Catch 22.
  4. 'In the last December quarter, affordability was 9 per cent worse than in March 1987 - a period of 15.5 per cent mortgage rates just before the property price explosion in the late '80s. It has been below that level since late 2003.' So, with low interest rates, Sydney house buyers are worse off than when rates were at 15.5 percent. Writing is on the wall......
  5. I can't believe the replies to this post. Irrespective of the detail/veracity of the stats, we are in a situation where a labour govt has delivered the biggest gap between house prices and average means since 1989. The very real, and un-accounted, cost of HPI is personal misery as average/normal aspirations are shattered. Rant over
  6. It's going to hurt when you have a negative amortisation mortgage, rates hit 7% (as predicted in the article) and prices flatten or fall. Will this lead to a mis-selling scandal in the litigous USA, or is it caveat emptor?
  7. Today's Economist p36. Not waving but drowning It's not too soon to worry about consumer debt Great article, which echoes many posts on this board. It includes an interesting statistic from the FSA: Apparently 62% of consumers say they they have no difficulty covering their mortgages that would fall to 55% if repayments rose by 10% (roughly half a percent increase in the interest rate).
  8. Still here - mainly lurking, but happy to see that the crash is on schedule, if a little later than I expected....
  9. http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/4446578.stm Beeb headline - October mortgage lending steady Actual story - The Council of Mortgage Lenders (CML) said gross new lending dropped by 3% to £27bn,
  10. Today's times quotes the chancellor warming up to the pre-budget report: On housing 'one of the things that struck me during the election was how many young couples were trying to buy homes for the first time' So far so good, then.. 'In any other decade, except this one, the kind of house price rises we have seen in the last three or four years would have had the same effect (referring to how rising oil prices would have led to a recession in any other decade). Goes on Mr Brown makes clear that housing will be one of his priorities in the final years at the treasury. 'Something has to be done to increase the supply of housung' again, not bad Then the killer... 'Various schemes are being drawn up to tempt more investors into housing and make mortgages more flexible, such as the much vaunted share equity schemes'
  11. Hard to know wht to believe. ESPC says Edinburgh YOY 2%, but still hasn't published third quarter stats yet. I thought that the average LTV of 83% (compared to UK average of 67%) was a very positive stat for bears.
  12. At last, a VI tells it like it is: http://www.theherald.co.uk/business/50941.html
  13. Many previous threads have bemoaned the use of CPI as an inflation measure as it doesn't include housing. This presupposes that if HPI were taken into account inflation would be much higher - I have gone with this train of thought. I now wonder if I have mis-understood the way they correlate. What if wage inflation (which feeds through to the CPI) has been held in check through the wealth illusion of HPI? Now, when even VI's agree that prices will at best stagnate, the rising cost of living can no longer be ignored by the general population and the pressure on pay will mount. Have I misunderstood the way this could work (probably, and I know many other factors have to be taken into account)?
  14. Check out the discounts on middle class holiday favourite Mark Warner. http://www.markwarner.co.uk/last_minute_ho...skiing_holidays Looks like the expensive ski holidays are being ditched too. These guys had almost no discounting last year.
  15. The added risk to second charge holders is reflected in the APR premium they have over first charge holders (typically 2%)
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