Ftse @ 6000 Before New Year?

[anonguest]

Much of this year the FTSE banged its head right up against the 6000 level - and failed.

Amazingly it is within spitting distance of it.

Given the daily/intraday action of the market.....why o why do I get the impression that the 'black boxes' seem to want to get it there (or above ) before year end?

Even more amazingly is the FTSE 250! Like nothing bad has happened in the last 2+ years!

Edited December 19, 2012 by anonguest

[Butthead]

If we get a "solution" to the fiscal cliff (which in reality means an even bigger US deficit, more borrowing and more deficit financing by the Fed) then we'll probably see a relief rally that'll take the FTSE over 6000.

If we don't we could see 5500 by year end.

[okaycuckoo]

Waiting for the last bear to die.

[anonguest]

If we get a "solution" to the fiscal cliff (which in reality means an even bigger US deficit, more borrowing and more deficit financing by the Fed) then we'll probably see a relief rally that'll take the FTSE over 6000.

If we don't we could see 5500 by year end.

WOT! 500pt drop in 5+ full trading days left till year end! No chance.

[Butthead]

WOT! 500pt drop in 5+ full trading days left till year end! No chance.

No fiscal cliff compromise equals 200pts easily. And possibly another 200pts the next day too as the world remembers all the bad news it has been forgetting recently (like China stagnant, BDI at 743 and falling , France contracting, Italy in political turmoil, nothing fixed in Europe generally, tensions in China/Japan, ME on verge of war...again).

[Phil S]

Much of this year the FTSE banged its head right up against the 6000 level - and failed.

Amazingly it is within spitting distance of it.

I don't think you can call a 12% drop since 1999 amazing, whilst the DJI is up 15% since then.

[anonguest]

I don't think you can call a 12% drop since 1999 amazing, whilst the DJI is up 15% since then.

Which does make me wonder IF, at the moment, we are going to see supposedly unloved Euro region indexes perform better than most might intuitively expect - given all the bearish newsflow.

It is precisely because the FTSE has stagnated for so long, a decade or so, that WHEN it finally breaks above 6000 it may well not look back?

The FTSE P/E is 11.5-ish, dividend yield of 3+% (?)....whereas the DOW is on a P/E of 14.5+ and a lower dividend yield.

Yes there could still be some down moves in the FTSE but I am coming to the view that we are strating to approach the end of the long bear in the FTSE.....

[Phil S]

Which does make me wonder IF, at the moment, we are going to see supposedly unloved Euro region indexes perform better than most might intuitively expect - given all the bearish newsflow.

It is precisely because the FTSE has stagnated for so long, a decade or so, that WHEN it finally breaks above 6000 it may well not look back?

The FTSE P/E is 11.5-ish, dividend yield of 3+% (?)....whereas the DOW is on a P/E of 14.5+ and a lower dividend yield.

Yes there could still be some down moves in the FTSE but I am coming to the view that we are strating to approach the end of the long bear in the FTSE.....

You may well be correct, time will tell!