Oxford

[fallingbuzzard]

The argument about there being no inflation proof investments is plainly false although you're confusing salary inflation and price inflation again. You were the mug that had his cash in the bank rather than in a mix of asset classes and you panicked. Many others with too much cash will panic too. You continue to confuse inflation proof with salary inflation linked. One thing is for sure and can be shown historically, property values are connected to salary inflation, new build starts, and credit availability but not to price inflation. So that bodes badly for housing. As for devaluation of the pound, get real, the UK could do QE for a couple of years with no impact on the £ because we're good for our debts. We have massive room for fiscal tightening through public spending cuts and tax rises. More fundamentally the £ is only going to strengthen because of dollar problems which are going to get worse as the Alt-A ARM and jumbo mortgage defaults start hitting the US in Q4 of this year. Remember the £ is still the third biggest reserve currency in the world so when you sell dollars, you buy £, Euro and Yen. And you buy all 3, not 2 out of 3.

[fallingbuzzard]

For all those with some excess cash to be mopped up by property, there's a couple more on auction for later this month:

http://www.auction.co.uk/residential/LotDetails.asp?A=606&MP=24&ID=606000063&S=L&O=A

http://www.auction.co.uk/residential/LotDetails.asp?A=606&MP=24&ID=606000079&S=L&O=A

[Edhutch]

The argument about there being no inflation proof investments is plainly false although you're confusing salary inflation and price inflation again. You were the mug that had his cash in the bank rather than in a mix of asset classes and you panicked. Many others with too much cash will panic too. You continue to confuse inflation proof with salary inflation linked. One thing is for sure and can be shown historically, property values are connected to salary inflation, new build starts, and credit availability but not to price inflation. So that bodes badly for housing. As for devaluation of the pound, get real, the UK could do QE for a couple of years with no impact on the £ because we're good for our debts. We have massive room for fiscal tightening through public spending cuts and tax rises. More fundamentally the £ is only going to strengthen because of dollar problems which are going to get worse as the Alt-A ARM and jumbo mortgage defaults start hitting the US in Q4 of this year. Remember the £ is still the third biggest reserve currency in the world so when you sell dollars, you buy £, Euro and Yen. And you buy all 3, not 2 out of 3.

Actually sunshine I had and still have a fair old stash in the FTSE 100. Your salary linkage thing doesn't work for the most affluent areas of London and the south east where inherited cash and bonuses still rule the roost. Fiscal tightening will mean that interest rates can stay pretty low for the next 18-24 months or more in spite of £ continuing to fall (16% increased disposal income compared with 2007 for those with a mortgage and still in work). Those with cash will keep on buying in the best areas, so you could have a very long wait! Pound has tanked against the Euro and will reach parity pretty soon. Dollar has its own big issues but for now has the advantage of being the world's reserve currency (so can probably get way with more printing than we can). You repeat your mantras but you find the steady reality of the N. Oxford rebound a frustratingly stubborn contradiction. At least for now you have given up outright denial of the reality of the current market situation.

I have much more sympathy for the position (and humour) of The Howler. The aptly named Howler realizes that he may have lost out and half-accepts it with an original observational wit which adds to the general gaiety. You on the other hand are like a sour old eschatologist who cannot forgive the world for its stubborn refusal to heed his prophesies and end now!

[FamilyGuy]

Actually sunshine I had and still have a fair old stash in the FTSE 100. Your salary linkage thing doesn't work for the most affluent areas of London and the south east where inherited cash and bonuses still rule the roost. Fiscal tightening will mean that interest rates can stay pretty low for the next 18-24 months or more in spite of £ continuing to fall (16% increased disposal income compared with 2007 for those with a mortgage and still in work). Those with cash will keep on buying in the best areas, so you could have a very long wait! Pound has tanked against the Euro and will reach parity pretty soon. Dollar has its own big issues but for now has the advantage of being the world's reserve currency (so can probably get way with more printing than we can). You repeat your mantras but you find the steady reality of the N. Oxford rebound a frustratingly stubborn contradiction. At least for now you have given up outright denial of the reality of the current market situation.

I have much more sympathy for the position (and humour) of The Howler. The aptly named Howler realizes that he may have lost out and half-accepts it with an original observational wit which adds to the general gaiety. You on the other hand are like a sour old eschatologist who cannot forgive the world for its stubborn refusal to heed his prophesies and end now!

...I'm interested as to what you think will happen with the rest of Oxford.

North Oxford will be ruled by old money (either institutional or personal) or wealthy individuals - I still don't really agree as to why property is the best investment for them, and why N. Oxford is the best place for them. This demand will always outstrip supply in North Oxford, so prices will always rise - the pent up demand form earlier never getting less only increasing.

What's going to happen to the rest of Oxford where these market drivers don't exist? Are we going to see N Oxford become it's own small property bubble, with the rest of Oxford either staying roughly the same price or getting less, or are we going to see the rest of Oxford rising as well?

[Edhutch]

...I'm interested as to what you think will happen with the rest of Oxford.

North Oxford will be ruled by old money (either institutional or personal) or wealthy individuals - I still don't really agree as to why property is the best investment for them, and why N. Oxford is the best place for them. This demand will always outstrip supply in North Oxford, so prices will always rise - the pent up demand form earlier never getting less only increasing.

What's going to happen to the rest of Oxford where these market drivers don't exist? Are we going to see N Oxford become it's own small property bubble, with the rest of Oxford either staying roughly the same price or getting less, or are we going to see the rest of Oxford rising as well?

I agree that N. Oxford is a bubble not obviously connected to other areas of Oxford. To be honest I don't know much about the rest of Oxford. I would guess the nicer bits of Headington would be OK (i.e. they have hit the floor and are on the up) but beyond that I have no idea other than that there is a housing shortage in and around Oxford generally which might well prop things up. I've only lived in Oxford for a few years and when I first came I was genuinely shocked by the shabbiness of quite a few of the areas. It is brutal to say this but I wouldn't want to live anywhere near anyone on housing benefit etc because of fear of crime. For sheer size and space some of the villas in the Rose Hill area (with huge gardens) are intriguing, but in truth few people with real cash would want to live there because of the near neighbours. Iffley Rd falls into a similar category but is nearer in and a lot more aspirational, though the guest houses and student digs put me off. Has Iffley Rd started to rebound too I wonder?

[ElPapasito]

It's the schools, the commutability and the educated upper middle classness that keeps people here...

Oh EdHutch, that's a shocking case of OPD you've got - and I bet you're proud of it.

commutability - er, is that the same as saying there are no jobs here, or, sorry, no jobs that would pay enough for people to buy a house in north Oxford? A delicious example of positive thinking.

Perhaps for you it's all wood-panelled dining rooms, high table, dancing dons and butter dripping from crumpets onto faded passages by Milton? I understand the myth, EdHutch, I've been exploring it for years. But I can't revel in the parochial, retrograde smugness you exude. To me the idea of "educated englishness" seems rather limited, irrelevant, misguided - and erroneous. For one thing, to suggest the area is anything but international in character is idiotic. You describe the patch as though it's some theme park for Caractacus Potts types, bumbling around in their basements. But to me, they've all been chased out by you "opinion makers" and the 13 agents of doom. You see, money has been a dirty word in Oxford for a very long time. For me, it still is, but for you educated englishers it clearly isn't.

Ouch! Nice one!

[ElPapasito]

I agree that N. Oxford is a bubble not obviously connected to other areas of Oxford. To be honest I don't know much about the rest of Oxford. I would guess the nicer bits of Headington would be OK (i.e. they have hit the floor and are on the up) but beyond that I have no idea other than that there is a housing shortage in and around Oxford generally which might well prop things up. I've only lived in Oxford for a few years and when I first came I was genuinely shocked by the shabbiness of quite a few of the areas. It is brutal to say this but I wouldn't want to live anywhere near anyone on housing benefit etc because of fear of crime. For sheer size and space some of the villas in the Rose Hill area (with huge gardens) are intriguing, but in truth few people with real cash would want to live there because of the near neighbours. Iffley Rd falls into a similar category but is nearer in and a lot more aspirational, though the guest houses and student digs put me off. Has Iffley Rd started to rebound too I wonder?

Thank god we have North Oxford to put these people otherwise Oxford would be an intolerable place to live. Imagine having to live near one!

[Edhutch]

Thank god we have North Oxford to put these people otherwise Oxford would be an intolerable place to live. Imagine having to live near one!

I do like to throw out a bit of bait every few posts: thankyou for biting. As Nick Ross used to say, don't have nightmares

[fallingbuzzard]

Thomas Merrifield has another auction property on Walton Well Rd for those that are interested in becoming a neighbour of edhutch.

[fallingbuzzard]

Thanks for the compliment. I would say I'm not an old, sour pension awaiting, apocalypse predicting fossil, more like a young and cynical person. I am sorry that I hit your raw nerve.

Actually sunshine I had and still have a fair old stash in the FTSE 100. Your salary linkage thing doesn't work for the most affluent areas of London and the south east where inherited cash and bonuses still rule the roost. Fiscal tightening will mean that interest rates can stay pretty low for the next 18-24 months or more in spite of £ continuing to fall (16% increased disposal income compared with 2007 for those with a mortgage and still in work). Those with cash will keep on buying in the best areas, so you could have a very long wait! Pound has tanked against the Euro and will reach parity pretty soon. Dollar has its own big issues but for now has the advantage of being the world's reserve currency (so can probably get way with more printing than we can). You repeat your mantras but you find the steady reality of the N. Oxford rebound a frustratingly stubborn contradiction. At least for now you have given up outright denial of the reality of the current market situation.

I have much more sympathy for the position (and humour) of The Howler. The aptly named Howler realizes that he may have lost out and half-accepts it with an original observational wit which adds to the general gaiety. You on the other hand are like a sour old eschatologist who cannot forgive the world for its stubborn refusal to heed his prophesies and end now!

[Edhutch]

Thomas Merrifield has another auction property on Walton Well Rd for those that are interested in becoming a neighbour of edhutch.

You've given up on ever being able to afford N. Oxford then?

P.S. I forgot to add to my earlier post that Nick Ross lives in ... N. Oxford!

Edited October 15, 2009 by Edhutch

[fallingbuzzard]

Not at all. I'm just not going to fall into the trap of buying what is basically bricks and mortar at the wrong price. As for living there which is what afford implies, I'm not going to live there. I noticed the pound has jumped today, must be the start of your currency collapse

quote name='Edhutch' date='15 October 2009 - 07:53 AM' timestamp='1255589628' post='2194863']

You've given up on ever being able to afford N. Oxford then?

P.S. I forgot to add to my earlier post that Nick Ross lives in ... N. Oxford!

[Edhutch]

Not at all. I'm just not going to fall into the trap of buying what is basically bricks and mortar at the wrong price. As for living there which is what afford implies, I'm not going to live there. I noticed the pound has jumped today, must be the start of your currency collapse

quote name='Edhutch' date='15 October 2009 - 07:53 AM' timestamp='1255589628' post='2194863']

You've given up on ever being able to afford N. Oxford then?

P.S. I forgot to add to my earlier post that Nick Ross lives in ... N. Oxford!

The pound collapsed precipitously ages ago (see graph):

http://www.indexmundi.com/xrates/graph.aspx?c1=GBP&c2=EUR&days=1825&lastday=20091007

In terms of Euros UK housing had come off more than 40% from its July 2007 peak by the end of 2008. Good luck if you expect NOMINAL house prices in £ to tank any more. Your idea of 'the wrong price' (in spite of all the recent market indicators) just highlights yet again that you are p*ssing in the wind and hidebound by a rigid mindset. Markets oversheet then correct (often too much in the other direction) then recalibrate again. Your landlord must be a happy man because with your mindset you will be keeping him in clover for many years to come.

[fallingbuzzard]

Happy man? Him? More like happy woman and her. I could say that its terribly sexist of you, but I won't. Its consistent with all your other views though.

I know that the pound collapsed precipitously ages ago.

The pound collapsed precipitously ages ago (see graph):

http://www.indexmundi.com/xrates/graph.aspx?c1=GBP&c2=EUR&days=1825&lastday=20091007

In terms of Euros UK housing had come off more than 40% from its July 2007 peak by the end of 2008. Good luck if you expect NOMINAL house prices in £ to tank any more. Your idea of 'the wrong price' (in spite of all the recent market indicators) just highlights yet again that you are p*ssing in the wind and hidebound by a rigid mindset. Markets oversheet then correct (often too much in the other direction) then recalibrate again. Your landlord must be a happy man because with your mindset you will be keeping him in clover for many years to come.

[Edhutch]

Happy man? Him? More like happy woman and her. I could say that its terribly sexist of you, but I won't. Its consistent with all your other views though.

I know that the pound collapsed precipitously ages ago.

.

Then why are you making little snipes about marginal daily moves in the sterling exchange rate? Oh it's for the same reason that you are nitpicking about the gender of your landlord (you are probably the sort of person who considers it clever to write 's/he'): the truth is that events have overtaken you and you have lost the argument about N. Oxford starting to go back up again.

PS I'm a landlord, too, incidentally, have been for nearly a decade . That's probably one of the many reasons why I can afford to own in N. Oxford, whereas you are currently helping your landlady to climb the property ladder at your expense! Very noble and unsexist of you old chap.

Edited October 15, 2009 by Edhutch

[fallingbuzzard]

I'm not nitpicking, its sexist and stuck in the past to assume a gender for a landlord. I'd really like to buy a house or two close to you, and may do. Your reaction when you find out what I'm doing with my houses there would be a great thing to capture and no doubt the local residents will all be up in arms fearing that it will knock 25% off your values, but then I'm investing with a philanthropic motive in order to give something back whereas you're a moneygrabber.

As for sterling, you're harping on about the past not the future.

Then why are you making little snipes about marginal daily moves in the sterling exchange rate? Oh it's for the same reason that you are nitpicking about the gender of your landlord (you are probably the sort of person who considers it clever to write 's/he'): the truth is that events have overtaken you and you have lost the argument about N. Oxford starting to go back up again.

PS I'm a landlord, too, incidentally, have been for nearly a decade . That's probably one of the many reasons why I can afford to live in N. Oxford, whereas you are currently helping your landlady to climb the property ladder at your expense! Very noble and unsexist of you old chap.

[Uitlander]

This has gone off topic and is heading for flame war territory ... c'mon lets keep it sensible (even if you are discussing N. Oxford house prices).

Edited October 15, 2009 by Uitlander

[fallingbuzzard]

Completely agree with that

This has gone off topic and is heaing for flame war territory ... c'mon lets keep it sensible (even if you are discussing N. Oxford house prices).

[thehowler]

Don't know if it's the Buzzard's mysterious reference to unpopular philanthropic investment or Edhutch's stalwart boostering of the North Oxford high and mighty but I was minded of this story of the upstanding residents on Middle Way from last year...

http://www.oxfordmail.co.uk/news/2231598.brothel_madam_jailed_for_year/

Discounts for doctorates no doubt...

[Edhutch]

I'm not nitpicking, its sexist and stuck in the past to assume a gender for a landlord. I'd really like to buy a house or two close to you, and may do. Your reaction when you find out what I'm doing with my houses there would be a great thing to capture and no doubt the local residents will all be up in arms fearing that it will knock 25% off your values, but then I'm investing with a philanthropic motive in order to give something back whereas you're a moneygrabber.

As for sterling, you're harping on about the past not the future.

Always with the fantasies about 25% further falls. By your own admission you are an 'idealistic' young man. Sad that you feel the need to label anyone demonstrably wealthier and more successful than yourself 'moneygrabbing' but there you go (I really don't believe that you have the purchasing power of 2.5-3 million to get the two properties you pontificate about btw). No doubt you would have found a way to make Kristallnacht sound fair and reasonable had you been there at the time (yes I am Jewish and yes I do have a problem with embittered losers stigmatising landlords as sexist and 'moneygrabbing'). As for flaming/off topic I'm still waiting for your current market-based evidence that N. Oxford is headed in a downward direction.

Edited October 15, 2009 by Edhutch

[Edhutch]

I'm not nitpicking, its sexist and stuck in the past to assume a gender for a landlord. I'd really like to buy a house or two close to you, and may do. Your reaction when you find out what I'm doing with my houses there would be a great thing to capture and no doubt the local residents will all be up in arms fearing that it will knock 25% off your values, but then I'm investing with a philanthropic motive in order to give something back whereas you're a moneygrabber.

As for sterling, you're harping on about the past not the future.

Always with the fantasies about 25% further falls. By your own admission you are an 'idealistic' young man. Sad that you feel the need to label antyone demonstrably wealthier and more successful than yourself 'moneygrabbing' but there you go (I really don't believe that you have the purchasing power of 2.5-3 million to get the two properties you pontificate about btw). No doubt you would have found a way to make Kristallnacht sound fair and reasonable had you been there at the time (yes I am Jewish and yes I do have a problem with embittered losers stigmatising landlords as sexist and moneygrabbing). As for flaming/off topic I'm still waiting for your current market-based evidence that N. Oxford is headed in a downward direction.

[FamilyGuy]

Always with the fantasies about 25% further falls. By your own admission you are an 'idealistic' young man. Sad that you feel the need to label antyone demonstrably wealthier and more successful than yourself 'moneygrabbing' but there you go (I really don't believe that you have the purchasing power of 2.5-3 million to get the two properties you pontificate about btw). No doubt you would have found a way to make Kristallnacht sound fair and reasonable had you been there at the time (yes I am Jewish and yes I do have a problem with embittered losers stigmatising landlords as sexist and moneygrabbing). As for flaming/off topic I'm still waiting for your current market-based evidence that N. Oxford is headed in a downward direction.

Priceless.

[Basildon Bond]

Meanwhile in East Oxford......it seems, as far as I can tell, that Charles Lawson estate agents has gone bust. They closed their lettings office a few months back. On driving past the other day I noticed that their main sales office on the Cowley Road has now gone as well.

If you try their website at the moment one gets the message: "Website down due to non-payment" - http://www.charleslawson.co.uk/

.

[Our day will come]

Always with the fantasies about 25% further falls. By your own admission you are an 'idealistic' young man. Sad that you feel the need to label antyone demonstrably wealthier and more successful than yourself 'moneygrabbing' but there you go (I really don't believe that you have the purchasing power of 2.5-3 million to get the two properties you pontificate about btw). No doubt you would have found a way to make Kristallnacht sound fair and reasonable had you been there at the time (yes I am Jewish and yes I do have a problem with embittered losers stigmatising landlords as sexist and moneygrabbing). As for flaming/off topic I'm still waiting for your current market-based evidence that N. Oxford is headed in a downward direction.

You mustn't be invited to very many of the social events you evidently crave so wildly. "Oh no, here comes that ghastly Edhutch, a little new money and he thinks he's one of us. How awful."

You protest far, far too much about just how "wealthy" you are.

I sense deep, gnawing, desperate unfulfilment in your life Edhutch.

I feel sorry for you.

[TomW]

OK... at the risk of dragging things back on topic, could I say a quick hi and ask for peoples thoughts?

I'm currently trying to decide whether it's a good time to be buying a 'standard' 2 or 3 bed terrace in Jericho.

There is very little on, but what comes on seems to be moving reasonably quickly. I'd say that the stock coming on at the moment is a bit less desirable than some that was coming on 6-12mths ago (I've been watching Jericho for about the last 18 months) but perhaps that's just a subjective thing.

Looking at PB and at the actual sale prices it seems like prices have come down maybe 10% in the last 18 mths, although it is difficult to tell as there are so few properties sold in Jericho.

What are peoples thoughts on Jericho in general?

Thanks and be kind to the newbie..

Tom