Jump to content
House Price Crash Forum
Sign in to follow this  
Realistbear

U K Growth Down 66% In Third Q According To Survey

Recommended Posts

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-10-22/u-k-growth-pace-slowed-to-0-4-in-third-quarter-survey-shows.html

U.K. Growth Pace Probably Slowed to 0.4% in the Third Quarter on Spending
By Jennifer Ryan - Oct 23, 2010 12:01 AM
U.K. economic growth slowed in the third quarter to a third of the pace in the previous three months as consumer spending faltered, a survey of economists showed.
The economy expanded 0.4 percent in the period, down from 1.2 percent growth in the second quarter
, according to the median forecast in a Bloomberg News survey of 35 economists. The Office for National Statistics will publish the data at 9:30 a.m. on Oct. 26.
The GDP report will matter “quite a lot” for the Bank of England’s next decision as officials mull whether to add stimulus, former policy maker Charles Goodhart says. Finance minister George Osborne this week gave details of the biggest fiscal squeeze since World War II, and anticipation of the announcement may have sapped Britons’ confidence.

And the cuts haven't kicked in yet. :o

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

And the cuts haven't kicked in yet. :o

Indeed they don't fully kick in for 4 years.

I really don't understand the panic about this, they are piffling in year 1. Quite irrelevent to the macro economy.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Yep. I'm now convinced we'll get QE2 & continuing near zero interest rates. I also believe the Condems will back down on much of their austerity measures and start stimulus spending. I also think they need to introduce huge incentives to the private sector employers regarding tax and NI holidays. These measures will be in place for the long run and I'm thinking 10 years.

Result: Booming deficit. Sterling down. House prices maintained or slow drift down. Shares & commodities rising. Wage/house price ratio acceptable. Debt paid down and equity restored. Mortgage defaults and repossessions stable or reducing. Bank balance sheets restored.

Non of this is good for a severe HPC.

Edited by Harold Bishop

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
House prices maintained or slow drift down.

I dunno, with new claims of 750,000 jobs going from the public sector and the private sector weakening fast I don't see how prices can be maintained.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Yep. I'm now convinced we'll get QE2 & continuing near zero interest rates. I also believe the Condems will back down on much of their austerity measures and start stimulus spending. I also think they need to introduce huge incentives to the private sector employers regarding tax and NI holidays. These measures will be in place for the long run and I'm thinking 10 years.

Result: Booming deficit. Sterling down. House prices maintained or slow drift down. Shares & commodities rising. Wage/house price ratio acceptable. Debt paid down and equity restored. Mortgage defaults and repossessions stable or reducing. Bank balance sheets restored.

Non of this is good for a severe HPC.

None of it is good for anything.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-10-22/u-k-growth-pace-slowed-to-0-4-in-third-quarter-survey-shows.html

U.K. Growth Pace Probably Slowed to 0.4% in the Third Quarter on Spending
By Jennifer Ryan - Oct 23, 2010 12:01 AM
U.K. economic growth slowed in the third quarter to a third of the pace in the previous three months as consumer spending faltered, a survey of economists showed.
The economy expanded 0.4 percent in the period, down from 1.2 percent growth in the second quarter
, according to the median forecast in a Bloomberg News survey of 35 economists. The Office for National Statistics will publish the data at 9:30 a.m. on Oct. 26.
The GDP report will matter “quite a lot” for the Bank of England’s next decision as officials mull whether to add stimulus, former policy maker Charles Goodhart says. Finance minister George Osborne this week gave details of the biggest fiscal squeeze since World War II, and anticipation of the announcement may have sapped Britons’ confidence.

And the cuts haven't kicked in yet. :o

The growth of 1.2% was 100% more than expected. 0.4% Would make it 2% for the year with one quarter remaining, quite respectable and above most forecasts.

Will be interesting to watch what the BOE do. With inflation over target all year, PPI rising and falling sterling. The argument that QE will provide any stimulus to the economy is very tenuous. I think it will generate inflation, but no extra growth. It will probably mean much higher long term interest rates to bring the resulting inflation under control. We seem to have very short memories, only 25 years ago we had double digit interest rates as inflation raged.

I don't see any real risks from the actual "cuts" . Confidence will be the main problem as result of the ludicrous hyperbole that has surrounded them.

The real threats to the economy are potential inflation from short sighted monetary policy and external shocks. The world economy is still incredibly unbalanced, in Asia, The USA and Europe there are major structural issues that have not been addressed. There is a big risk of one of the problems exploding and severely damaging world trade and the economy. To grow long term we need a strong worldwide economy and I don't think we will get it.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
Sign in to follow this  

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

  • 245 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

We have placed cookies on your device to help make this website better. You can adjust your cookie settings, otherwise we'll assume you're okay to continue.