boo Posted June 23, 2009 Share Posted June 23, 2009 Hi I noticed on the bbc website that there is a steady rise in mortgage lending in May http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/8114414.stm but there is another article saying mortgage lending in May fell back http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/8107576.stm So more people are getting mortgages but the amount is less, which to me would be mean further falls in house prices. But the BBC makes no mention of this at all!!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheEmperorHasNoClothes Posted June 23, 2009 Share Posted June 23, 2009 HiI noticed on the bbc website that there is a steady rise in mortgage lending in May http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/8114414.stm but there is another article saying mortgage lending in May fell back http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/8107576.stm So more people are getting mortgages but the amount is less, which to me would be mean further falls in house prices. But the BBC makes no mention of this at all!!! Is interesting how each article has a "BUT..." section at the end, putting an opposite spin on the headline, for a fair balanced view which conveys no real opinion or analysis. E.g. Bear Poops in the Woods ================ The bear poops in the woods, it stinks, it's horrid, but actually the average weight of a bear's processings has come down in recent months. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Son of Fred Posted June 23, 2009 Share Posted June 23, 2009 At least Sky managed to get both sets of stats into the same article: http://news.sky.com/skynews/Home/Business/...C162_during_May Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Caveat Mortgagor Posted June 23, 2009 Share Posted June 23, 2009 (edited) HiI noticed on the bbc website that there is a steady rise in mortgage lending in May http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/8114414.stm but there is another article saying mortgage lending in May fell back http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/8107576.stm So more people are getting mortgages but the amount is less, which to me would be mean further falls in house prices. But the BBC makes no mention of this at all!!! One report is BBA, the other is CML, they are analysing different samples. Alas this means you cannot draw the direct conclusion that volumes increase but total lending down means avge value down. We are comparing apples and oranges I'm afraid. Edited June 23, 2009 by Nick Dastardly Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
boo Posted June 23, 2009 Author Share Posted June 23, 2009 Is interesting how each article has a "BUT..." section at the end, putting an opposite spin on the headline, for a fair balanced view which conveys no real opinion or analysis.E.g. Bear Poops in the Woods ================ The bear poops in the woods, it stinks, it's horrid, but actually the average weight of a bear's processings has come down in recent months. my point was that the bbc were not joining up both articles and providing any analysis. what is your point other than to try and be funny (which you arent achieving ) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheEmperorHasNoClothes Posted June 23, 2009 Share Posted June 23, 2009 my point was that the bbc were not joining up both articles and providing any analysis. what is your point other than to try and be funny (which you arent achieving ) The point is that the BBC almost always soften the article by having a BUT... or HOWEVER.... comment towards the end saying the orignal article's drift isn't as strong as it first seemed. And I made myself laugh Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
boo Posted June 23, 2009 Author Share Posted June 23, 2009 The point is that the BBC almost always soften the article by having a BUT... or HOWEVER.... comment towards the end saying the orignal article's drift isn't as strong as it first seemed.And I made myself laugh fair enough still think house prices wont recover for a long while yet though... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Selling up Posted June 23, 2009 Share Posted June 23, 2009 And I made myself laugh I thought it was quite funny too. Not worth a laugh exactly but a wry smile. I'm very hard to please when it comes to jokes. The BBC need for "balance" is often problematic, particularly in science stories. In science, more than any other human endeavour, the clearly defined questions and techniques mean that we can be sure that one side is right and one is wrong. Sometimes it is unclear which is which, but sometimes the weight of evidence is overwhelming - is balance appropriate in these situations? EG Should you "balance" a piece about earth's geography with a comment from the flat-earth society? The MMR issue was the classic one where the weight of scientific evidence was enough for an overwhelming consensus among scientists that there was no evidence of risk, but "balance" led the media to seek out the few dissenting voices, whose evidence was judged negligible by the scientific community as a whole. Thankfully the whole issue has died down now with the tacit acceptance amongst most of the public that the scientific majority was right all along. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jadoube Posted June 23, 2009 Share Posted June 23, 2009 One report is BBA, the other is CML, they are analysing different samples.Alas this means you cannot draw the direct conclusion that volumes increase but total lending down means avge value down. We are comparing apples and oranges I'm afraid. Calm sensible thinking. You can't do that on an internet forum old chap. Bad form. Besides surely its only analyst geeks who remember the apples and oranges thing. Much better form to jump to an erroneous conclusion that fits ones prejudices. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheEmperorHasNoClothes Posted June 23, 2009 Share Posted June 23, 2009 fair enough still think house prices wont recover for a long while yet though... Thanks for steering it back to house prices! I think they'll stop falling steeply in 2011, and start rising again significantly in 2017. Give or take a bull/bear trap. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
boo Posted June 23, 2009 Author Share Posted June 23, 2009 Thanks for steering it back to house prices!I think they'll stop falling steeply in 2011, and start rising again significantly in 2017. Give or take a bull/bear trap. I think that based on the low transactions and need for a higher deposit we will see a rise over the next few months, once those big deposits dry up prices will fall back again (unless the banks change their LTV). I agree with you that prices wont rise significantly for a long time but not sure how long we will bump along at the bottom. The outlook for the economy isnt good with unemployment rising rapidly and the new jobs out there becoming scare, A friend of mine applied for one job which had 400 other applicants! Everyone I know is putting plans on hold to extend their houses, move or even take holidays, until this confidence returns then things will not improve. On another point I dont think even if we returned to the lax credit we had that people will start spending again on credit cards, but they may start buying houses again. There are people looking to buy now (in their mid twenties/early 30s) who have really only known the boom times Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dead Spider Posted June 23, 2009 Share Posted June 23, 2009 (edited) HiI noticed on the bbc website that there is a steady rise in mortgage lending in May http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/8114414.stm but there is another article saying mortgage lending in May fell back http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/8107576.stm So more people are getting mortgages but the amount is less, which to me would be mean further falls in house prices. But the BBC makes no mention of this at all!!! Boo , how did you find that second article on the BBC website ? I can't for the life of me find it on their Business page unless I click your link which takes me there . Edit : Ah , got it , the second one is from 18/06/09 . Edited June 23, 2009 by Dead Spider Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeenItAllBefore Posted June 23, 2009 Share Posted June 23, 2009 The MMR issue was the classic one where the weight of scientific evidence was enough for an overwhelming consensus among scientists that there was no evidence of risk, but "balance" led the media to seek out the few dissenting voices, whose evidence was judged negligible by the scientific community as a whole. Thankfully the whole issue has died down now with the tacit acceptance amongst most of the public that the scientific majority was right all along. Unfortunately they gave equal airtime to both sides of the debate, giving the impression that the split was around the 50-50 mark when the dissenters were actually in a tiny minority. Hence the public panic on the issue. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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