Winchmore Hill

[wadisgod]

I have just sold my house in Winchmore Hill and have rented a much larger property locally. It is fiancially similar in cost to owning except I live in a much larger house and have a large sum of cash invested.

We were originally looking to buy but as the market got tougher deceided s to r was more sensible. Properties that we were sent details of have either sold been reduced in price or been removed from the market.

As a rough guide of a group of six properties we were sent three have disappared the other tree have dropped in price by an average of 7% this in a period of about three months. Interestingly the agent usually states a property is sold stc, the three missing were not listed as such.

I remember the late eightes well as was selling a properties then. Business was bad but this time I feel things are much worse. Friends from all walks of life are telling me trading is tough. It makes me laugh when I read how strong the economy is.

I feel the economy is balanced on the edge on a cliff, well its actually slipping down.

Any one with any info on winchmore Hill or surrounding areas

[Sackville]

I live in Enfield, near the A10 (on the right side of it, ha ha) and things are very slow. We live in a new development that has always had good luck in terms of selling properties but now there are several on the market and we have had just 4 viewers in 7 weeks.

We are not in a rush to sell but -- if prices are going to drop -- I would rather lower mine now before my neighbours do. Our estate agent has recommended a 4-5 percent drop in our asking price.

The big question (since we can afford to hold on) is will the BoE cut interest rates toward the end of this year and will that help to prop the housing market back up on a more even keel?

Hard call... not sure what our decision will be.

[wadisgod]

I am not an economist( unless an o-level counts ) but I think our current problems date back to the late eighties (or even before) when the last house price peak happened. Interests were cut to lessen the effects of the recession. This ment that debt levels remained relatively high.

The housing market did not pick up until the mid nintes, some seven years later.

We are faced with further increases in tax. This will counter any reduction interest rates. A rise in unemployment should also set the alarm bells ringing.

Japan is still suffering the effects of deflation some fifteen years later.

No one has all the answers, no one can be sure what will happen. One saying I like however is that "in a high risk envoiroment take a low risk stratagy".

[Nomadd]

Any one with any info on winchmore Hill or surrounding areas

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I'm just past the top of Winchmore Hill, so technically fall into Southgate. I posted a while back on Southgate, so you might want to read those couple of threads. WH is going the same way - dropping. Speed of drops seems to be increasing now, although many people are still holding out for top dollar, hence the same properties are on the market months later. I think the 'wake up and smell the roses' phase will happen over the next 12 months (i.e. once people suffer the winter and following spring with no 'bounce' in house sales. For now, too many are still in the denial phase.)

Nomadd

[runforthehills]

I'm just past the top of Winchmore Hill, so technically fall into Southgate. I posted a while back on Southgate, so you might want to read those couple of threads. WH is going the same way - dropping. Speed of drops seems to be increasing now, although many people are still holding out for top dollar, hence the same properties are on the market months later. I think the 'wake up and smell the roses' phase will happen over the next 12 months (i.e. once people suffer the winter and following spring with no 'bounce' in house sales. For now, too many are still in the denial phase.)

Nomadd

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I am just below you guys in Palmers Green. Quite interesting there as well, but in a different way. I had been looking at 2 bed flats and put in offers on two at approx 7% below value. Didnt get anywhere and the properties have been sold. Whilst we were looking, 1 was reduced from £230k to £219 and got sold for £217 (I know there were 2 buyers after it)..2 were taken off market, 2 at £225 and £220 are holding out for nearasking price. I was surprised at the sales and the holding out, also all the 2 beds and 1 bed 2 recs have gone quite quickly. Perhaps this is the limit most people can afford and therefore these kinds of properties are more popular. Anyhow have decided to STR in Crouch End for a year (rent=mortgage payments now and mre ldesirable area for us). Will keep an eye out for whats going on round here as wwll. Our one bed is on and fingers crossed! The panic from the last couple of years of the FTB will take a while to go, particularly as they are vunerable to VI opinions. Fear can reaaly distort logic, I know, iwas there 3 years ago and didnt even negotiate the price of our flat.

anyone in Crouchy? Its my dream town....(+ all my mates live there)

[bubble]

Can I ask a cheeky question - what did you pay for your 1 bed 3 years ago and what is it on the market for today?

Cheers Bubble

[NervousFTBer]

i've lived in Winchmore Hill for over 5 years, and for the past year I've been properly looking and viewing property (but not very much lately) around last Oct / Nov time I did most of the viewing. We are looking for a 2 bed place and want a house, we currently rent near the green and are priced out of the local houses by quite a way (250k budget) unless we move to highlands or barrowell (which we wont) so am considering moving away .....

I've noticed that several properties have been sold and then back on again, and I'm still waiting for many "sold" ones to appear on nethouseprices as well

i don't feel like theres been much decent new stuff on the market for under 300k lately and I don't tend to look over that price often.

anyway prices... !!!!

small 2 bed house at end of hopper road, has been on the market for at least a year I think. Done the rounds with most EAs.

Was on at 229k, then 225k, then taken off market for a few months, now on again at 229k.

http://www.findaproperty.co.uk/agent.aspx?...prop&pid=227218

3 bed flat on fernleigh road - was 255k now 234k - been around for a while

http://www.findaproperty.co.uk/agent.aspx?...prop&pid=129175

I viewed a 2 bed flat last Nov on fernleigh rd, on at 234k, lovely flat but no garden - which we want - I expected it to be snapped up, but it went down to asking 226k, and then sold for 210k in the end (around march time i think)

my personal joint- favourites for stupid prices are the two cottages near the green both currently at 355k..... lets face it Winchmore hill is quite nice for london, great train line, but 355k for a tiny cottage !!!!!!!!!!

http://www.findaproperty.co.uk/agent.aspx?...prop&pid=260383

was on at 375k, now on at 355k...

http://www.findaproperty.co.uk/agent.aspx?...prop&pid=235799

Have you noticed how they live the light on and blinds open in the evening so you can look in and see how nice it is?

haha, sorry... I've spent toooo much time looking....

[wadisgod]

i don't feel like theres been much decent new stuff on the market for under 300k lately and I don't tend to look over that price often.

Dear NrevousFTBer,

I just had a look on rightmove. There are 21 properties that fit your criteria i.e. 2 bed house under 300k.

Of interest is that 5 of these properties have appeared in the last 14 days this represents an increase of 31% in the number of properties for sale.

Give it 6-12 months and I am sure your budget will be more than enough to buy the property that you would like. The trouble with falling prices however is that you want to wait till they fall further.

Kind regards,

Wadisgod.

[NervousFTBer]

Hi Wadisgod,

Thanks for looking ! None of those houses fit my criteria unfortunately.. but I admit to being fussy.

Of those 5 "new" houses in the last 2 weeks.... I think most are just new posts for old houses. Besides, have you seen where those 5 houses are? some will like their locations i suppose...

Most are in highlands village, and calling that winchmore hill is alittle tenuous despite the N21 postcode... and useless for the train station unless you want to drive to the station and park nearby annoying the locals and blocking their drives and footpaths .... and the rest are on the wrong side of green lanes (except the cottage I mentioned in my last post)

Although this one on highfield road

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/viewdetails-784...pa_n=1&tr_t=buy

was previous on about 20k more, but they are using a picture of the back garden rather than the front now, and keep reposting it...

Some might say too fussy but I'm in no rush. Although I feel the area is getting rather overpriced considering it is zone 4, it's nice but not that great. I will wait abit longer and expect prices to come down more , but may move from the area anyway ...

Good luck with the house!

[wadisgod]

Hi Wadisgod,

Thanks for looking ! None of those houses fit my criteria unfortunately.. but I admit to being fussy.

Dear NervousFTBer,

I know what your saying about location is true but I bet these are properties that would have sold when the market was strong.

The property you show that has been reduced in asking price by 20k. That represents a 7.5% fall in price. Who knows what it will sell for?

You only need a 16.6% fall to take a property from 300k to 250k. I am sure this is around the corner , but remember quality property in a good location always commands a premium.

Kind regards,

Wadisgod.

[wadisgod]

Are prices sliding?

Didnt think i would be updating so soon but here goes.

Of the six original properties from my random sample one has reappeared making four in this sample.

Of original three two further price falls have been noted the third has been listed with a new agent at slight increase (2K Bear in mind these are 3-4 bed houses 400k-500k originally).

The one to reappear also listed with a price fall.

So the total drop is now 8.5% this represent a further fall of 1.7% ( I have rounded up figures) in about a week.

Are things starting to slide?

Regards Wadisgod.

[wadisgod]

Its all been a big mistake!

Of the six properties a fifth has reappeared ( 5 out of six still unsold) However it has not suffered a price fall! It has actually gone up in price!!!!!

It was being marketed for 499k and didnt sell so some bright spark has put it up for 530k.

If this sells at that price I am of out to buy ten BTL's

Regards,

Wadisgod.

[Nomadd]

Its all been a big mistake!

Of the six properties a fifth has reappeared ( 5 out of six still unsold) However it has not suffered a price fall! It has actually gone up in price!!!!!

It was being marketed for 499k and didnt sell so some bright spark has put it up for 530k.

If this sells at that price I am of out to buy ten BTL's

Regards,

Wadisgod.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Stuff I've been following in N14 (next door to you) has continued to fall. One which came on at £590k was chopped about three months ago to £570k. Was chopped again 3-4 weeks ago to £540k. Still not sold. Another, which has been on the market since last year for £750k, got chopped to £725k, and I noticed yesterday chopped to £699k. Most of the other stuff is either still 'stuck' - having been on since last year - or has had £10-20k lopped off, and still unsold.

There are quite a few with 'Sold' signs, but they seem to be stuck in chains forever. They mostly seem to keep reappearing for sale every 3 months, once the chains go bust.

Of the stuff which does sell, I track the actual selling prices on ourproperty, and prices have certainly dropped significantly from last year. Still, I think they've a hell of a lot further to go until we reach the bottom - say in 2-3 years time.

Nomadd

[NervousFTBer]

The "coachouse" on radcliffe road has finally been reduced from 425k to 399k. of course, the EA doesn't mention its reduced they just re advertise at a lower price instead...

Still alot for a 2 bed house thou!!!

[wadisgod]

[quote=NervousFTBer,Jun 30 2005, 10:09 AM]

The "coachouse" on radcliffe road has finally been reduced from 425k to 399k. of course, the EA doesn't mention its reduced they just re advertise at a lower price instead...

Still alot for a 2 bed house thou!!!

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Dear NervousFTber,

I have details on that coach house at 485k!

Regards,

Wadisgod.

[NervousFTBer]

Classic! how long ago was that? Outragous...

[wadisgod]

[quote=NervousFTBer,Jun 30 2005, 08:12 PM]

Classic! how long ago was that? Outragous...

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Only a couple of months!

[wadisgod]

Classic! how long ago was that? Outragous...

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Sorry it may predate Feb 2005.

[NervousFTBer]

a link to the property for anyone interested in having a look...

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/viewdetails-613...pa_n=2&tr_t=buy

i can't remember the number off hand to do nethouseprices, something 'a'....

[wadisgod]

Just another update.

I have found two of the six properties for rent! ( please read original post )

One which has dropped in price from 490k to 465k is for rent at £1600pcm

The other which has dropped from440k to 420k is up for rent at £1400pcm

Both look a little ambitious at these prices. If they achieve these figures they will be returning 4.1% and 4.0% respectively. But dont forget agents fees etc.

This does not show great confidence in selling these properties even at these reduced prices.

One must ask what price reductions would be needed to actually get a sale on these properties. After all these vendors want to sell. They are in fact distressed renters!!!

Regards,

Wadisgod.

[Nomadd]

Just another update.

I have found two of the six properties for rent!  ( please read original post )

One which has dropped in price from 490k to 465k is for rent at £1600pcm

The other which has dropped from440k to 420k is up for rent at  £1400pcm

Both look a little ambitious at these prices. If they achieve these figures they will be returning 4.1% and 4.0% respectively. But dont forget agents fees etc.

This does not show great confidence in selling these properties even at these reduced prices.

One must ask what price reductions would be needed to actually get a sale on these properties. After all these vendors want to sell.  They are in fact distressed renters!!!

Regards,

Wadisgod.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Yep, just finished looking through the local N14/N21 property rag. Absolutely TONS of stuff for rent - half the damn housing section. The rents on these places are stupid too, and lots of them actually rent for much less than the advertised price.

As regards your 4% returns, you're way off base. Take into account *all* the costs of buying one of these places - and the realistic rent you'd get - and you'd be very lucky to be breaking even. And as you say above, these are all desperate sellers who can't sell anway, which means the property is worth less and less by the day.

Definately best to be a renter, rather than a landlord, for the next few years methinks.

Nomadd

[Sackville]

Just thought I'd update.

We sold our place for £175,000. I'm told the same sort of place (modern purpose built 2 bed flat in Enfield with balcony) was going for £180,000 in April.

What we got was a bit less than we expected but we're not upset as we did make a small profit on it.

For those of you who think everyone in the housing market is making a killing, let me point out that this small profit after costs such as agency fees/lawyers/home improvements/remortgage fees etc (I'm not going to be specific but it was less than £10,000) came after 4-1/2 years of ownership, where we put down a 10% deposit and overpaid every single month by a significant amount.

If we had not seen a 20-25% price increase in house price values and if we had gone wtih a normal 25-year mortgage and not overpaid every month, I'm sure we'd have been showing a net loss, although the costs may still well have been less than if we'd rented.

[Nomadd]

If we had not seen a 20-25% price increase in house price values and if we had gone wtih a normal 25-year mortgage and not overpaid every month, I'm sure we'd have been showing a net loss, although the costs may still well have been less than if we'd rented.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Exactly. And say that 25% gain becomes a 25% loss over the next 4 1/2 years, then things would be looking very painful indeed. And that's a real possibility... Still, it seems that people are finally waking up to that sort of reality, hence the current lack of buyers.

Nomadd