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bubble

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Everything posted by bubble

  1. Nice article, but don't think anyone thinks we're in C surely ("house prices have declined for 2 years"...) - unfortunately if the article is correct, we'll be waiting till we're 60 before buying...
  2. I think this is a great investment - listed on the stock market - we all know that bankruptices are going through the roof and if we generally believe we're in for a crash at some point, I think it is inevitable their market will grow massively. Look at the share price, seems to have caught the eye of the market already.
  3. No offence taken Mags, I've had lots of arguments with my wife about this - I've directed her to this site. We're fortunate to be in a financially strong position, but that doesn't mean I like throwing money away and that's essentially what I know we'll be doing. We're currently renting a very nice property at a sensible rate - I'm okay with it, but she has a strong nesting feeling and its difficult for her to fight this (even though she also understands the current position). I think my best hope is to delay until the spring rush is over and see if I can get a 'bargain' in the summer...
  4. I know its worth waiting, but the reality is when you're married you have to consider your partners feelings - in this case she's respected my view for some years - the reality is, even if I'm right and prices fall in due course, I now have to respect hers. Having waited this long, can you give me a more definative signal that prices will take a bigger tumble by the end of the year? Most of us agree that prices are going to fall at some stage, but unfortunately no one on this board can claim to know or provide a basis as to the timeframe.
  5. Okay just to answer a few questions and to update you on what I've found so far - we've waited six years primarily as a function of different jobs in different locations etc. Wife having first baby and wanting to be close to in-laws etc., but to be fair to her, during this period she has always wanted to buy, with me holding back on the basis that houses are overvalued etc.. The reality is, even if I fog her off, I can't do it for much more than 6 months. We're looking in Epsom (the Downs, Cheam Village etc), and all I can say is of four properties I liked, 2 we're able to see, the other two (which were on findaproperty) are now under offer and so the agent obviously won't show us around. I have to say, the agents didn't appear desperate (e.g. asked about Epsom Village - "no sorry nothing in that are available right now" - didn't even try to take my details or sell me another area. Certainly for this neck of the woods there doesn't seem to be much indication of HPC. Bubble
  6. Okay guys, I've held out for 6 years (yup you read right) and have never hunted to buy a house with an estate agent before, but seriously depsite the impending doom I can see, I just can't take the crap from the wife any more. Just need some help from you guys - what 10 questions would you ask either the owner/tenant about the property (and serious ones please) - just don't want to look like the inexperienced buyer that I really am....
  7. Agree with ImupNorth - simply make the withdrawal the day after the interest is paid - you shouldn't use the account unless you're tranferring your total balance elsewhere - it's not the type of account to mess araound with 10% or so of your balance in and out etc...
  8. Really nice example of HPC in action - I just wonder whether the seller is very keen to move, or has just become more realistic. It wouldn't take much more of a market drop to take this down to their in price again. Looking at the property itself, I would have thought its quite expensive in light of what you can get for a similar price in Epsom Downs which I understand is a much nicer area - this road is very close to a hospital - not sure if I want to be awoken at night my rushing ambulances...
  9. We rent, we can afford to buy, but as mentioned thousands of time on this site, subscribe to this being finanically 'stupid' (and indeed have thought so for the last five years...yup great call that one....). However, while I don't mind renting (infact the flexibility has been very important) that much, wife hates it, and following birth of baby, would definately now prefer to own. It is annoying not able to decorate a nursery etc.. While I'm getting fed up of waiting for a more rapid crash, I do believe the maket has turned - I probably no longer have the luxury of waiting till it bottoms, probably buy late 2006.
  10. Renting a 4 bed semi in north London for £1430/month - landlord was advertising the property for sale at £480k, even agent thought that was ridiculous and thought a more sensible number was £380k - I figure, based on a 5% mortgage cost that I'd need to buy the property for around £345k for it to be break-even vs. renting and the reality is in a down market you don't really want to be buying it for much more than £300k - a far cry from the £480k advertised - will rent for now...
  11. I'm not sure about this, according to the Halifax there was a clear uplift in Q3 this year having been a weak Q1 and Q2 - I could buy your theory if there wasn't this reversal, I think the best properties in each category should have sold by now, plus remember we've also seen data from other sources indicating mortgages are significaintly up - I think we need to be objective here about the data we're seeing - I'm thinking maybe a dead cat's bounce, but maintain i think their data is credible.
  12. Chuz, I assume you've gone short (when did you open it?) - I wonder how many people have thought about buying a house and then shorting the index to hedge themselves against a HPC?
  13. Othello, I'm not sure if I agree - why in a falling market are transactions taking place at higher prices than a year ago? While I accept your thesis that a lot of properties aren't selling and again note I am a bear, I just don't think we can write the index move off as meaningless.
  14. If you think about it, is it unreasonable to believe that an "average" household has £50k income? If one considers there are two earners, then I think this seams reasomable for the "average" household. Sure, single, young people can't afford to buy their own home, but there is no law saying they should be able to.
  15. Does anyone else see the irony of the self-cert adds on this site??
  16. Does anyone know when the programme was made? I've never understood why someone would pay £550k, surely you'd do some deal to ensure that you don't pay the higher stamp duty? Would it be treacherous to say I fancy the presenter of this programme??? In light of the fact that on the 'art deco' property the matey wanted to ditch out at an early stage, she must be feeling a bit guilty now for advising them to continue...
  17. Thanks Neil, that definately appears like a good signal for HPCers.
  18. I'm a bear, but have to say that while I can see the clouds very close, in my view it ain't massively raining yet. I still believe we are in the denial phase. So I'm looking for greater clues and was wondering whether any HPCers who are attending auctions can give any guide to how these are unfolding. I remember in bearish times, people could get even better deals at auctions, but during 2003-4 (for example), you'd probably have paid a premium in an auction - what's the situation now - are prices going to discounts, flat or dare I say it premiums? (the latter I would find hard to believe). Also now we can track sale prices it should be easier to work out. Is there any difference at auctions in the sub 200k vs. say the 500k properties that are being sold?
  19. Thanks for the link that's great - but why do u think we are heading for rampant inflation if one assumes the oil price stays around these levels from here (although I'm not suggesting it will)?
  20. GDP growth looks like its going to under-shoot forecasts, retail sales going through the floor, confidence figures out this am lower than forecast, BUT inflation rising - I always thought the primary remit of the BoE was inflation, but its clear that the political members of the committee are likely to be pushing for a lowering of interest rates - just wondering whether we could see a situation of lower interest rates and declining house prices - does anyone know whether this has occurred historically? Anyone any ideas on when Gordon is likely to start raising taxes, we all know its coming, but when it does, it's not going to help affordability.
  21. Really good work and beautifully presented - keep it up - it's going to be great watching these progress in the coming quarters!
  22. Consolidating his debts is probably sensisble (his mortgage rate is likely to be at an interest rate substantially below his other debts), but obviously spending more if he believes he's richer on the basis of his property is insane...
  23. Casual Observer, my guess is your statement date is to June 30th, the FTSE 100 has risen over 12% since then alone, so you'll see the benefit come through in your statement to Dec 21st assuming the FTSE 100 doesn't crash in the meantime...
  24. Pensions, like any other investment, need continual appraisal - shares had a torrid time post dot-com, so the 5 year rate of return comes as no surprise, but the 1, 2 and 3yr returns should have been significantly positive (her 3yr return rate was crap, is her fund purely equity???). The decline in the equity markets post dot-come has in my view definately contributed to the housing bubble as capital coming out of shares has found a new home. I hope that as people observe the recent performance of the equity markets, that the 'hot money' will no longer be channelled to property, but rather to the equity markets...
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