Property Propagana Machine Going At Full Throttle

[Converted Lurker]

I like Davina, but if I was running a TV show, I think Id hire some new hot shot willing to do it for £50K....I mean its the content not the comment you audience wants to watch.

is she still a heroin addict?

[BXLONDONMAN]

IT IS THE FAULT OF LIAR LOANS, LIAR LENDERS AND LIAR LEADERS

BUMP !!!!

[juvenal]

In December 2005, it was announced that the TV star would be hosting her own BBC One prime-time char show, called Davina.

Is she going in to competition with Anthea?

My thoughts exactly. With a failed sitcom, a failed chat show and Big Brother now little more than chav twaddle watched by thirteen year olds, I can't see much future for this particular 'celebrity'. Let's hope there's only a small mortgage on this country pile.

Davina ought to offer that 'green shoots' EA a place in the BB house - he would fit in well with the other boneheads in there.

Edited January 27, 2009 by juvenal

[BXLONDONMAN]

As I have said many times -- the Vested Interests will stop at NOTHING to peddle their bullsh1t...

"A local property expert said: ‘With the first green shoots of recovery starting to show in the property market, now is an ideal time to buy, so Davina obviously decided to strike while the iron’s hot.

‘This kind of estate is very rare, particularly in such a picturesque location, so I think it will turn out to be a very shrewd investment at just the right time.’"

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/tvshowbiz/artic...nsion-3-2m.html

can you blame them if they can get away with it why not !!! :angry:

[Papitogrande]

As I have said many times -- the Vested Interests will stop at NOTHING to peddle their bullsh1t...

"A local property expert said: ‘With the first green shoots of recovery starting to show in the property market, now is an ideal time to buy, so Davina obviously decided to strike while the iron’s hot.

‘This kind of estate is very rare, particularly in such a picturesque location, so I think it will turn out to be a very shrewd investment at just the right time.’"

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/tvshowbiz/artic...nsion-3-2m.html

I actually saw this story in today's mail. I found a copy in the pub that had presumably been left behind by some foaming dog lover. It's hilarious how the estate agent gets in his green shoots quote so clumsily.

However I think there is an important point here, you put this down to VI spin and you may ultimately be right. That does not alter the fact that activity in the market has risen significantly in the first month of 2009, and that will change the course, or slow the pace, of this crash. Put in to the context of the past few years activity is still low but there has been a definite change, maybe we should be debating that on this forum.

There are a number of key changes that are happening now. Either we dismiss them all as VI nonsense and hold firm to the belief that having been proved correct about there being a crash, that now the most pessimistic of forecasts must certainly be true. Alternatively they could be discussed objectively.

I seem to recall that you Eric mentioned something or other about loose lending practices being at the heart of HPI, Lear loans? The logic goes that banks tighten up and this leads to lower prices - all perfectly true. In 2009 though I think we could see the pressure exerted on lenders to grant more mortgages lead to a relaxing of criteria and granting more loans. Not to how it was in 2005 but different to how it was in 2008. For the link lovers

http://www.mortgageintroducer.com/mortgage...ing_in_2009.htm

I don't pay much heed to the above, however when I am all of a sudden being courted and invited to lunch by a number of mortgage business development managers, the same ones who I barely spoke to last year, something clicks. When they tell me that they are taking an aggressive approach on market share, I listen. These are people I've known for some time and they were totally upfront last year in saying they didn't want to lend, this year the message is "We've got money to lend, we want to do business"

Added to this buying activity is higher than at any time in the last 12 months, there is some fairly smart money going in to property at prices much lower than they were 12 months ago. From what I can see property is moving for about 25-35% off peak prices for standard property, more for flats.

My point being, and I may be rambling because I'm suffering a bout of insomnia, is that 35% may not be far from the total drop. I assume that many here gather not only for the witty banter but because they want to know when the optimum time will be to buy a home. If you are going to live somewhere for 5 or more years, you shouldn't give a hoot about picking the absolute bottom of the market and you'll never do it anyway. The best you can hope for is that you make your move slightly before the bottom and use the fear of further falls to get yourself the right discount from the reduced figure.

40% off peak - could be a good deal, and you could get it soon.

[the anti krust]

My thoughts exactly. With a failed sitcom, a failed chat show and Big Brother now little more than chav twaddle watched by thirteen year olds, I can't see much future for this particular 'celebrity'. Let's hope there's only a small mortgage on this country pile.

Easy headlines in the tabloids if she was repossessed-

'Davina you have been evicted, please leave the house immediately'

[Umiapik]

My point being, and I may be rambling because I'm suffering a bout of insomnia, is that 35% may not be far from the total drop. I assume that many here gather not only for the witty banter but because they want to know when the optimum time will be to buy a home. If you are going to live somewhere for 5 or more years, you shouldn't give a hoot about picking the absolute bottom of the market and you'll never do it anyway. The best you can hope for is that you make your move slightly before the bottom and use the fear of further falls to get yourself the right discount from the reduced figure.

40% off peak - could be a good deal, and you could get it soon.

I used to assume that prices were due to drop by about 40% but that was before this financial crisis developed. Now it just doesn't seem realistic to think that, if prices are already down by approx. 30%, that in, say the next 3 years, they'll only fall by a further 10%.

[pete.hpc]

activity in the market has risen significantly in the first month of 2009, and that will change the course, or slow the pace, of this crash

Good, we need higher activity

Let's not lose site of what constitutes a house price crash in terms of approvals and monthly falls

We are so far beyond that as to be in housing armageddon, never have houses fallen this quickly

We would need significant improvements from here just to get to the level of the last house crash, we would then be at a sustainable level of falls which will grind on for some time, perhaps reflected more in real prices rather than nominal, with more houses changing hands grinding down the indices for a couple of years, with no doubt a couple of +0.5 MoM's thrown in for good measure to keep Bulls aroused

But be prepared for the VIs to be all over any rising figures like a rash

Look at the bigger picture

[Papitogrande]

I used to assume that prices were due to drop by about 40% but that was before this financial crisis developed. Now it just doesn't seem realistic to think that, if prices are already down by approx. 30%, that in, say the next 3 years, they'll only fall by a further 10%.

So what do you think now? 80 maybe 90% drop? Part of this forum's purpose, as far as I was aware, was for right-thinking people who were smart enough to see the bubble, to talk about what was the right price to buy and what was a good time.

I may be wrong, perhaps it has evolved into a support group for people who think that the end of the world is nigh and we should protect ourselves now and never ever buy a house, for home buying is the way of the sheeple, amen - 100% guaranteed.

Would you buy at 98% discount, you probably would, but you're mad if you think you'll be able to. if it drops 60% then do you think buying at 55% from peak is a mistake?

I am really not advocating that people go out and buy now because prices are bound to rise in the second half of the year, I very much doubt they will. However wise heads on this forum have said that the time to buy will be when the 'man in the street' is saying property is a terrible investment. Well he's starting to say that now, in between some stuff about football and strictly come x factor, but he's starting to think it. Should those who do want to own be starting to look for the right place and deal for them?

On the issue of VIs. As I've always made clear I'm a mortgage broker, I still am although it now accounts for less than 10% of my income and I've moved on - I think that business is finished and will be dead by the end of this year regardless of house prices. I could still be accused of being a VI - fine, pin that label on me.

There is another type of VI though, far more pernicious and I think there are a number of them on this forum. They are for economic, political or social reasons, completely out of the housing market. They either know they could never buy a house or they know they would never want to. They are using their wisdom and reasoning (quite abundant in some cases) to persuade as many others as possible not to buy a home for their family. Why, because it makes them feel better about their choice/circumstances. It is completely self serving, no doubt quite innocent in some cases but I suspect quite knowingly in others. I'm not naming names, partly because it's rude but mainly because I haven't written any down or remembered any, it's just an opinion I have formed and shoot me down if you disagree.

Edited January 28, 2009 by Papitogrande