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Flat Bear

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  1. From the D.T. Bank braces for biggest inflation surge since financial crisis Consumer prices are expected to rise by 4pc in final quarter, which could split the Bank of England over whether to continue stimulus ByRussell Lynch, ECONOMICS EDITOR31 July 2021 • 7:00pm
  2. Trust takes a very long time to earn, but can be destroyed very quickly. A fiat currency relies exclusively on trust. “Trust takes years to build, seconds to break, and forever to repair.”
  3. Wow The only one thing I can say about all the "revelations" is Why did Boris Johnson even think it was a good idea to hire such a smug, delusional, totally incompetent, egoistical nasty piece of work as Cummings? This was a terrible decision to give this insane guy a job especially in a delicate position in PR. Boris has gone down in my estimation because of this incompetence decision.
  4. I don't know what your on but I don't want any of it😝
  5. I do think you are right, but the end result will be get jabbed or catch covid (or probably both) . I can not see how anyone socially active over the next few months will not be exposed to the virus.
  6. Its not climate - climate change is really not a huge thing. ITS POPULATION. Exactly right. It should be obvious really but many people refuse to see it, why? It is such an import issue and will cause major problems within a generation. How long can this planet survive with a population of over 9 billion? 10 billion 12 billion.? Could the planet survive for a prolonged period (1000 years or more) even if the population halved to around 5 billion?
  7. Yes of course we should. Maybe we should encourage them future by helping them to land safely, we are already doing that? OK. But we do not look after them well enough some of them are given less than average housing and their human rights are trodden all over. New accommodation must be prioritized so every one of them is able to have a modern home with all the facilities of an average UK citizen. Special payments for other needs including education must be made. Those that want to work should be able to and those that don’t should be able to get the exact same benefits as anyone else, it is their human right. Anyone that disagrees with any of this is a racist gammon, scumbag and deserves to have all their rights and privileges taken away. We don’t know how lucky we are and without these kind soles we will not be able to get the extremely cheap labour we need to suppress wages of the useless indigenous population and increase the demand on housing so that homes can increase in value to make us all so much better off. I have expanded your thought for you. No need to thank me.☺️
  8. One of Ambrose's better articles Markets fear inflation much more than the delta variant If central banks don't lance the QE boil now they probably never will, risking soaring inflation that takes the world back to the 1970s AMBROSE EVANS-PRITCHARD20 July 2021 • 4:51pm
  9. Thank you Scottbeard I had not thought of all those that have been still operating or even the full diversity of the sector.
  10. Dear Client, From 1 August 2021, any credit balances of euros will attract a negative interest rate of -0.50% (annualised). This means that a positive balance of euros will result in a debit on your account. As an example, if you kept a balance of 200 euros every day, then the debit would equate to -1 euro per year, or -25 euro cents every quarter. Regards iDealing.com Ltd En français - pour traduction uniquement: Madame, Monsieur. A partir du 1er août 2021, tout solde positif d'euros sera soumis à un taux d'intérêt négatif de -0,50% (annualisé). Cela signifie qu'un solde positif d'Euros entraînera un débit sur votre compte. A titre d'exemple, si vous gardiez un solde de 200 euros par jour, alors le débit équivaudrait à -1 euro par an, soit -25 centimes d'euros chaque trimestre. Cordialement, iDealing.com Ltd iDealing.com Limited is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority under FCA Register number: 191660 Registered in England under Companies' House Company number: 03722932 Principal place of business: Finsbury House, 23 Finsbury Circus, London, EC2M 7EA website: www.idealing.com email: [email protected] What will this mean for the euro?
  11. I do not know why but sample sections of the adult population are showing around 90% have covid antibodies which would vary in amount and effectiveness against the virus. Vaccination info shows us that around 46.5 million adults (87.99%) have had a first dose and 36.5 million (68.81) have had both doses. If you also take into consideration my guestimate on around 15 million adults (approx. 30%) who have already had covid there is quite an overlap. Some people who have had a vaccine or who have had covid do not show antibodies, I understand, but could still have a high degree of protection. Some people who have antibodies may not have much protection. So, it is quite confusing. BUT overall, I would suggest we can say that a very large proportion of the adult population have a high degree of immunity. My conclusion is that if the country is fully opened that before Christmas this year, we will have got to herd immunity irrespective of what this percentage is. It will be the younger children that are likely to be the last to catch the virus and prolong it. Questions are how many people will be hospitalized and how many will die as a direct effect of Covid and how much more immunity do you get from catching Covid than having a vaccination? We do not actually know how many people have died of covid already? Do we? A fair estimate would be around 64,000? Around half the number who died within 28 days of catching covid. The death figure will be much lower as a percentage and nominally as the official count of 128,000 included many who died of something completely different but were exposed to covid in hospital before they died. I was suggesting rates of infection could well be around 250,000 at the peak as everyone in theory becomes exposed to the virus. Looking at a guestimate to how many will end up in hospital will depend on many factors, but I would suggest it could be less than 50,000 as most of the more vulnerable have a level of protection. The death rate as a direct result of catching covid is likely to be even lower and I would think it would be less than 100 a day at the very peak. There will be other things to frighten us this winter including a possible return of the flu or other infection which many will be isolating from.
  12. 90% of the Adult population sorry, I did actually put down I was unsure on my post if you check. The figure they gave for England was 89.8% but I took the liberty of rounding up 0.2% for the extra people who caught the virus or who got vaccinated over the past 12 days. (report out 7th July) The new report comes out on the 21st July and I would expect the figure to be higher, but it depends on the survey sample as you know. The ONS can be quite vague when they want to be.
  13. Is this all-good news? You are all correct. Lockdown, mask wearing, etc. was a waste of time and people’s lives. Most of us knew this from the beginning but we are where we are. I have been looking through all the data, and the information I have seen is much more positive than Vallance suggests. What he is actually telling younger people in affect is getting a vaccination is a waste of time. Why? The data I have seen shows that the risk of catching the virus is drastically reduced, that if you do catch it getting seriously ill is even a lower risk, and actually dying becomes extremely low even for those with complications. This virus for the vaccinated is a lower risk than the Flu we are subject to each year. Looking at the situation at this time. Approximately 25% to 30% of the population has had covid in the past 18 months. Approximately 50% of the population have been fully vaccinated (made up of the more vulnerable population) Approximately 200,000 people a day are being fully vaccinated Approximately 50,000 people a day are catching covid and it is growing number. It is said that 90% of the population have covid antibodies (I think this is just the adult population but am unsure) Looking forward We are now opening up fully and within a month the spread will be at maximum. Maybe 250,000 per day? At current trends we will have 100% (if it is ever possible) of the whole population who have either been vaccinated or who will have had covid well before Christmas. There will be no new hosts for the virus to infect. It will no longer be a threat. Questions are how many people will be hospitalized and how many will die as a direct effect of Covid and how much more immunity do you get from actually catching Covid than having a vacination?
  14. Well, yes you are right, technically, as a definition hyperinflation needs to be over 50% or over 100% over a 3-year period But inflation rate did go above 25% for a period in the UK and over 29% in the US in the 1970s which was well on the way there. June 2021 US official inflation figure 5.4% and UK figure was 2.5% CPI Although there are massive inflation pressures in the US I would guess at a relatively small rise to 5.6% to 5.8% but because we are playing catch up and because of the inflation we will see from today till the end of the month we will get a figure of 2.9% to 3.3% in July (shock for the BOE but maybe not for many others) If there is no sudden shutdown, August will see inflation in top gear in the UK and we could easily see a rise of over 1% in just one month! This, in my opinion, is where the BOE will have to get to maximum serious vigilance and even make a number of statements and press releases educating us on how vigilant they have to be and how they will have extra-long vigilance meetings late into the night to sort it all out. They will probably make some lame excuse that the increases were all down to higher beer and restaurant prices or possibly even oil prices but it will get more difficult to keep fobbing off figures each month. Covid will be blamed for all the inflation and as it could not be foreseen the BOE will be blameless albeit a bit naive and stupid. They would have served their purpose Please feel free to ridicule me in 6 weeks’ time or so if I am (totally) wrong.
  15. Hello Winkie Sorry I just do not understand what you are trying to say. I have been puzzling in which way you mean? How can someone who is not working or putting any input in, but just consumes be called a provider? The only thing could be those people that work or provide some sort of service for others without any renumeration. Remember that all businesses including those of charity status are economically active. If people work for nothing? I still do not understand how these people can truly affect inflation in any meaningful way. Are you saying the altruistic "workers" throughout the UK (outside the system as such) can/will influence wage growth going forward? Is this possible? Everybody that earns money including those that rent out properties or writes a column in a newspaper is an economical provider unless possibly if they are doing it absolutly free? and even then they will have some outgoings and thus be economically active as such. I may have misunderstood you completely and you mean something totally different.
  16. This is very interesting. It sounds as if the senior bods are scared stiff. Pressure must now be building daily.
  17. If you think about it winkie it actually affects everything as it pushes up prices on everything. The 17 million economically active are the only ones that actually matter because they actually provide for everyone else. If they are in demand then prices rise. When the economy "opens up" will their be enough workers to provide the services people need?
  18. Yes, I think I know what you mean. Not so much troll's but disappearing up their own pseudo ar###s just to make some irrelevant point. Trying to answer my own question. I cannot see anything but enormous inflationary pressure as the "service side" of the economy starts to open next week. There must be enormous pressure on all companies in the sector from staff shortages, supply chain issues to onward uncertainty over the covid "rules”. Remember the service sector makes up approx. 70% of the country’s GDP. I really think this "opening up" has been really underestimated. it could even make gruffydd look like an inflation dove. I would be very grateful from anyone in the service sector to let me know their thoughts.
  19. On a basic question of economics. When the economy In England finally starts to open up later this month will this cause inflation or deflation? and your reasoning please.
  20. I thought it was someone who could not explain yesterday's weather the day after. You probably know the more intelligent type of economist.
  21. I have noted several other articles and videos that have pointed out her contradictions. She got lucky a few years ago as a contrarian which as an economic advisor is always a good gamble to take as there is no downside. Has she started to believe her own spiel? she says she is the contrarian, and the consensus view was we are entering into a period of high inflation? I thought it was the other way round and the consensus view was the inflation we are witnessing is temporary and transient exactly the same as she does? I am now confused. Is the consensus and majority view we are entering a prolonged period of inflation or not? I would suggest that most people now think we are and only the central bankers think otherwise, onthe record anyway. Am I correct?
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