slawek

I think the big question is: Do the Greece banks have any assets left on the balance sheets? If so ECB should monetize them during the current run on the banks, if not the outstanding bank deposits are worthless.

Mean reversion? http://www.vox.com/2015/6/23/8832311/war-casualties-600-years

Every bank is insolvent, that is how the current banking works. There is no bank which could survive a run on the bank without CB providing liquidity or using confidence tricks. ECB paying a fair price for bank assets is not a fraud.

Greece should sue ECB in ECJ for not providing liquidity during a run on a bank. To avoid argument about banks being bankrupt they should create a new bank and move there good assets. Other option is to sent its pensioners to Frankfurt.

EURUSD is back to Friday's levels

Or some big hedge fund to blow up. I think only market can force EU to change its stance on Greece.

Apparently Juncker is playing a blame game during his press conference. He moved mountains to reach agreement, it is not true that creditors wanted to cut pensions or salaries, they wanted talk about debt relief. It is all Greece faults, they played tricks, delayed and walked away. Very disgusting guy (shame he doesn't tell more about tax deals he arranged when he was Lux PM). It is clear that EU won't do anything until referendum. They are putting pressure on Greeks to get rid of Syriza government. They hate guys without ties, who lecture them.

Gold up $10

http://www.theguardian.com/world/datablog/2015/jun/19/the-greek-debt-what-creditors-may-stand-to-lose Even UK banks have 10bln euro exposure to Greece.

Any bets how quickly they come up with a solution when equity markets collapse and Italy yields go up?

There is also a possibility that savers spent their maturing term deposits and the money ended up spread across many current accounts. I argued in the past that dropping term deposits could suggest that recovery was funded by savings (increased money velocity).

"Whatever it takes" - Mario Draghi

I am afraid they are pretty worthless as collateral. China would need a military solution to get their money back, which would painful mostly for non-gods. Another possibility would be some Chinese and Western Gods Pantheon (some call it New Order) that will control mortals, I've got a feeling not for good of non-gods.

Goldman Sachs disease aka God complex, very common among central bankers after they create trillions from nothing.

It looks like SFO http://www.sfo.gov.uk/our-work/our-cases/case-progress/forex.aspx

fear is irrational, there was a reason why Cons used SNP in their campaign against Lab there was no shift to the right vs GE2010 unless you treat LibDem as left right (Con/UKIP/DUP/BNP) 42% (2010) vs 50% (2015) left (Lab/SNP/Green/PC) 32% (2010) vs 40% (2015) 16% LibDem votes were split equally between right and left in GE2015

Cons won the election thanks to 3% of the unsecured middle ground voters (probably ex-Lab voters) who believed Cons fear campaign, you can't trust Lab on economy, it will be chaos after the election, SNP will control Lab government. They thought that better known evil than that, Cons weren't so bad, nothing nasty happened.

A post election poll http://lordashcroftpolls.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/LORD-ASHCROFT-POLLS-Post-vote-poll-summary1.pdf People voted Con to 1) control immigration 2) cut deficit and debt (hmm?) 3) reform welfare 4) defend the Uk in Europe

I am afraid that's the world we live in. The people at the top will do anything to keep the current system running. The whole QE is a big theft to maintain inflated asset prices and enrich elites. It is disgusting.

The countries which don't abolish cash will be forced to do this. Their currencies will rise and they will effectively import deflation from the rest of the world if they don't get of rid of cash. This will leaves only not national currencies as potential cash replacement. It looks like SNB has already made some first steps http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-04-25/war-cash-migrates-switzerland

From my calculations around 40% of private landlords have BTL loans. http://www.cml.org.uk/cml/media/press/3606 http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/census/2011-census-analysis/a-century-of-home-ownership-and-renting-in-england-and-wales/short-story-on-housing.html

Citadel is not a place for saints. You don't stay clean when you work at places where is so much power and money. Bernanke is at least guilty for allowing corruption at Fed. There were a few cases where confidential information was leaked/used by people working at Fed and nothing has been done about this.

It could be both raising money and saving the world. At the time it looked like a win-win decision. There is no doubt that banks in London borrowed mostly from CBs almost 5000mt in 1990s. See page 31 of this IMF report http://www.gata.org/files/IMFGoldLendingFullStudy1999.pdf For comparison BOE held around 4000mt in custody in 2005, after unwinding gold lending bubble.(source BOE annual report) This Bundesbank report shows what happened to Germany gold http://www.bundesbank.de/Redaktion/DE/Downloads/Bundesbank/Wissenswert/gold_entwicklung.pdf?__blob=publicationFile. They unwound around 1000mt of gold swaps/deposits in 1998 and moved it to Germany in 2000/2001.

Most new mortgages are fixed. It could take a few years for the IR increase to impact those people.

Quite correlated to mortgage rates last two years. It seems that the house price response to lower mortgage rates has decreased recently. It could be the case that this hasn't fed through or mortgage/income ratios are holding the market.