bewildering

At the moment rent vs mortgage is a very (most?) metric popular over here in the US. I am surprised your real estate agents do not use this metric in their advertising. Perhaps it would have been a bad idea in 2006, but now having a mortgage as cheap as rent makes the strong case that affordability has returned to the market. I guess the biggest problem is that in the UK you can't determine the mortgage amount for longer than a few years, whereas in the US you know what you will be paying for 30 years. But still, the ratio should be easy to calculate using data from the internet, just use a few comparable houses for rent in an area versus recent sales. There is an idea for some young internet savvy entrepreneur. You can include property taxes and insurance to the mortgage payment.

Northern ireland was in a class of it's own. California in some places, like the inland empire, was similar to Northern Ireland but still the increases during the bubble fit on a graph. Like northern Ireland (being close to the republic), the inland empire was historically not a desired location but was very close to a frothy market (LA). I notice the new RICS survey says "affordability, more sales and falling prices" - this is exactly what happened in the US two years ago. The sales volume recovered from the crash, but to a more reasonable level than during the bubble. Now prices are starting to creep up, especially in some areas. Still, your mortgages are different. But from looking on property pal the rent v mortgage ratio seem to favour the mortgage, am I wrong? I don't think you have a website like zillow? Property pal doesnt seem to provide mortgage v. potential rent details for each house?

Ha! No i am not. Also, if you check my posting history you will see that I am an expat. In fact, my experience of your situation in N. Ireland comes from the US. We had 15% falls for a couple of years, then it was 5-10% falls. The funny thing was that the supply of houses started to contract around that last period of 5-10% falls. Now we find that house prices have stabilized, but your chances of buying are small because of the reduced inventory in some areas. People kept saying house prices will keep falling, but in fact the market was already recovering behind the figures. In some places I think a bubble has started again in places like phoenix in the US, damn investors. Anyway, take my advice with a pinch of salt, but I think the market will turn in Northern Ireland for homes (not sure about apartments, not sure i see the attraction of an apartment). I also think no one can time a market. The main thing is that rents are now more expensive than mortgages in plenty of areas. So I just don't see the value of renting anymore. And I was a huge bear on Northern Ireland a decade ago. But do your own research. It all comes down to figures for me. (anyone remember that townhouse or apartment in Portstewart on sale for 850,000? I wonder what happened to it?).

Just my opinion. If you want to own a house, not an investment, then today is a great time to buy. It is always hard to time a market, but interest rates are low and house prices have dropped significantly since 2007. Houses are never going to be free (well, perhaps those hideous tower blocks like Obel). You will be paying rent anyway, so why not just buy a house? I believe the rent/mortgage ratios are looking great in Northern Ireland. But I am willing to be proved wrong - anyone have any actual data?

There is no doubt it is a good time to buy in Northern Ireland if you intend to live in the house.I don't gamble so I don't do investment properties. Personally, I have no idea why anyone would want to be a landlord. Hell is other people. No amount of future profit could compensate me for having to deal with people who have a legal right to demand my time and energy. It would be like getting married over and over again to random people

The only reason we have 30 year fixed in the USA is because of the government. Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are government organizations (created in the great depression) that guarantee mortgages for the banks (But only mortgages up to a cerain price are guaranteed - around $700,000) The banks have zero risk for mortgages under 700,000, because the mortgages are guaranteed to be paid by Fannie and Freddie. This is why the government had to bail Fannie and Freddie out with 300 billion dollars during the crisis. Additionally, mortgage interest in the US is a tax deduction on your income tax. Huge saving for people that buy houses.

There are no houses for sale in my local neighbourhood, which is a middle-income area. Any houses that come to market are immediately snapped up by cash buyers. This reflects a rebound that started in low-income areas. I am guessing the yield on renting is great in these areas after the house price drop, because rents certainly did not drop. The interest rates are so low it is crazy - 4% for 30 year fixed, 3.5% for 15 year fixed. You'd be mad not to buy at that interest rate. The new consumer protection agency is demanding standards, so i dont think you'll get a sub prime problem again, but who knows. High income areas are still stagnating, but not dropping.

It is happening over here in the US again. Phoenix and Las Vegas house prices are up 15% over the last year. House inventory is down to 2001 levels. Consequence of being able to get a 30 year fixed mortgage for 3.5%. The FED is blowing up another bubble.

To be fair, the whole point of a Salesperson is to sell things. The choice is always with the buyer. Caveat Emptor. I am also a little tired of people abusing the term "ponzi scheme". Charles Ponzi used something that had dubious value to take people's money. He then used this money to pay off early investors. Houses have value, the valuation depends on a lot of different things. You also know what you are getting. It is not a ponzi scheme, you can just say no and not buy a house. Your choice.

Thanks for the information. It sounds like a recipe for corruption. But I guess any system will be imperfect.

As you are a developer, can you answer a couple of questions. Is getting planning permission in Northern Ireland a transparent process? For example, can you obtain the minutes for any meeting that decides permits? Is the process of deciding planning permission separated from the politicians?

"An Obelisk set in old belfast" "We encourage people to live with their head in the clouds" Wow, just amazing they felt this was right for Belfast. I dearly want to see a public inquiry into planning practices in Northern Ireland.

I now live in the US and only visit NI on occasions since I first left in 93. After seeing these buildings I have a simple question. Will there be an criminal investigation into how these high rise apartment blocks were given planning permission? Bribes must have been given at some point to get permission to build these monstrosities. They are so ugly. And who aspires to live in an apartment? Can anyone enlighten me on how, or why they were built. Was there a big discussion at the time before they were built?

SPECTACULAR VIEWS? Stunning description imo. The sink in the bathroom is tiny. Did they reduce the cost of fittings when the crash happened

Maybe it would be simpler to start naming the developers that are not in trouble. Is it just my impression or is the whole sector now finished?

I'm confused, i just listed the reasons above. The UK is nothing like Germany with respect to renting and buying houses.

Now that house prices have dropped 50%, going into the BTL business makes more sense than two years ago. And those yields do look attractive. Germany is not a good example for the UK, Ireland or the US. If you chat to germans you understand why their property market did not undergo a massive boom and subsequent bust. There are strict laws in germany covering property. Flipping houses is impossible in Germany - the government will tax any short term gains at a huge rate. You are very limited in adjusting rents - there are strict rent control rules. Property must be maintained to a very high standard - the local councils will hang you out to dry if you do not meet standards. These laws, along with others, make renters comfortable long term in germany as they are protected. I assume there will be housing benefit reform. As we just don't have the money to support this benefit with a 10% budget deficit. This is just a simple fact.

Thank you for the informative and interesting posts. Can you tell us exactly how much it costs to build a passive house compared to a normal house? I read a really interesting story about how new houses in sweden are all passive houses. It was fascinating, and i would love to check out one of these houses. Are there any developments in northern ireland built to the swedish standard?

Suspending all interest payments would bankrupt all the remaining banks in Ireland. Domestic banks are still big Irish bond holders.

It is difficult to predict what will happen in the housing market for two reasons. First, the government is doing everything it can to prevent house price depreciation, including literally giving the banks money to provide mortgages through the SLS. Second, some people have money and almost every other asset looks overvalued or plain risky at the moment. At least with houses you possess something of value. For these reasons i suspect house prices will not dip by more than 10%. However, most of the buyers will be investors rather than first time buyers and they will be buying distressed stock.

I needed to finally register to make a comment after lurking for many years. Obel is a monstrosity and should not have been built. It is completely out of place in Belfast and it will only look worse as time passes. The only comparison i can make with Obel is the communist edifice of the Jen-tower in Jena, Germany. This tower is utterly out of character with the rest of the city http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jen-Tower Other people agree that this building is horrible http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern+ireland-10645130