FernandoMorientes

You will need some serious rate cuts and will banks be so keen to take on credit and sub prime after the NR debacle? Looks to me like credit will be squeezed the run away train is coming off the rails fast your best bet is to jump.

ahhhhh spun like a Nu Labour chancellor, you have a bright future ahead Seriously though I cannot accurately predict the full impact of the credit crunch however the very words credit crunch were scoffed at by the Bulls not so long ago, you have to say a lot of the recent news (not all) was predicted on here by some of the forces of doom The credit crunch is here, of course we have not seen huge falls in house price stats yet but as the BBA thread (below) indicates if these figures reported continue we will have to turn negative sooner or later, and looking at that data I would say sooner. Surely the Bulls only hope of a poke to the flickering flame of a once raging fire lie with IR cuts, but even then is this enough now? http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/ind...showtopic=57362

http://www.bba.org.uk/bba/jsp/polopoly.jsp?d=145&a=10980 David Dooks, BBA director of statistics, said: "With house price inflation still in double digits, we might have expected stronger gross lending in August. However we are seeing a similar level to last year, which suggests that volumes are lower. Other than the current spate of remortgaging, loan approval numbers also endorse our view that customer demand was starting to moderate even before the September difficulties in the financial markets." "The long-term net repayment of card debt continued, while borrowing through loans and overdrafts also fell in August, giving a subdued picture of consumer credit again." Mortgage Lending # When compared to August 2006, house purchase approvals were down 14% by number and 7% by value; remortgaging approvals were up 4% by number and up 11% by value; while approvals for equity withdrawal were down 16% by number and down 9% by value.

I think the outcome of the credit crunch is about as clear as mud to be honest, for a major high street bank to default well thats my nationwide report we will see if there are further nasty's in the woodwork to come out over the course of time.

Silly me forgot you were hiding behind the 'neither' tag.

Did you bother reading the message either I do wonder cos it's not particually bullish (See my response on the article to Levy Process )?

No I don't think any of it's lies, after all if the lenders are issueing warnings (as the article states), and the outlook is NOT bullish from this piece (did you actually bother to read it?) then I have to ask who is clutching at straws? I am a home owner myself by the way and I am extremely bearish on the market and hope the price of my own house drops considerably it will be to the benefit of all in this country in the long term. FYI Lending fears Banks have become increasingly wary of lending to each other in recent weeks as fears about their exposure to risky loans have mounted in the wake of a sub-prime lending crisis in the US. Northern Rock became the highest profile victim of the problems when the squeeze in the credit markets forced it to seek emergency funding from the Bank of England. Nationwide economist Fionnuala Earley warned that banks are likely to pass on the increased charges they are facing in the credit markets to customers in the form of higher fees and interest on loans. "The message from lenders is clearly that from now on, risk must have its price," Ms Earley said. "As a result, highly leveraged borrowing will remain less attractive and lending volumes in this segment may decline." Slowing prices On Wednesday, house building firm Barratt said sales of its homes fell as much as 10% in the week after Northern Rock got into difficulties. But looking ahead, there was some good news for property owners, Nationwide said. "The interest rate outlook has shifted from hawkish to dovish which could provide some welcome relief to homeowners next year," it said. This latest survey from the Nationwide, which looks at its own lending to house buyers, lends further weight to the view that a slowdown in prices is now underway. Although some surveys, such as that of the rival lender the Halifax, say prices are still accelerating, other market commentators such as the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors are now claiming that the summer has seen the start of the long-predicted slowdown in prices.

Already been posted twice today if you had looked, ahh well you havn't had much to crow about lately so we will excuse you for clutching at straws

'The credit crunch squeezing the flow of lending from financial institutions in the UK is the best thing that has happened to the housing market this century! How does that equate??? Anybody care to expand on this 'logic'? In the UK, we have a tendency to follow suit - to let go of the purse strings now and again and fall hopelessly into a recession. But things appear different this time around. Our financial institutions have been a lot more cautious than people are giving them credit for (excuse the pun)' Cautious....NR debacle (who knows who else is coming out of the woodwork) , £1.5 trillion of debt and hedge funds turning over due to the sub prime mess? If thats caution I dread to see the consequences of reckless!

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/7014868.stm Can the BBC possibly try any harder to make this odiuos ***** look any more attractive to the masses? Nauseous to say the least!

In real terms the house prices could drop below the mean average before gaining momentum upwards again which is essentially what occurs in boom and bust, no one can deny there has been a huge boom in real estate so who can deny there is a chance of a bust? So the endless cycle of appreciation depreciation rolls on, some people just cannot bare the thought of the reality of this prospect though.

Take a little while out and have a think about what you are writing.

Very true....expect that phone call day or night your on call and we have a mission critical unsheduled outage ! Not so good a life style if you ask me

Some sys-admin work pays well (contract if you can find it) but then expectation can be to know every facet to IT and this in itself is nonsense as no one does, not even uber geeks.

Say's Dr Doom with an avatar of the anti-christ!

Classic tell it as it is that man... 'For that reason alone, Roach argued, the current US-led furore over the safety of Chinese-made toys and other goods should be accompanied by another over the "safety" of US-built structured finance products.'

Unless the volumes traded are increadibly small (which I doubt) i don't think your average Joe will buy enough volume to move the share 13% in the first half hour of trading. That said there was a thread here which showed people were buying all the way down on NR convinced they had bought into a bargain, talk about catch a falling knife! Usually in this scenario (I beleive NR is toast, takeover a cert) we get the dead cat bounce effect more than once as we have seen already. Anyone risking a punt is either extremely brave, stupid or has enough info to know when to day trade and skim a quick profit on the volatility, for anyone else surely NR is still a short I bet the FSA is desperate to see the back of this dinosour.

Spot on with your assesment. I work in IT as a techie and this is now very much the culture I am experiencing. India and middle Europe are the current favorites though Mexico has featured to in the outsourcing stakes (actually the Mexicans are rather good they train in the US). We (I shall not disclose who I work for) actually may have redundancies this week presumably in order to outsource some more? Having trained several times in Europe it's actually quite amusing to think your job is now on the line but I have ot say frankly I am so sick and tired of the mis-communication that is afflicting the industry (yes increadibly due to outsourcing), if this is offered on a generic level I may cash in and move on, as I feel it is only a matter of time until a much larger percentage of IT work is moved away from the UK.

Of course it's not a big deal, our economy is a bastion of creation and and industry. Don't be fooled into thinking the miracle economy has been built on pipe dreams and mass debt, these are sound fundamentals and outsourcing / offshoring is something we in Great Britain should be proud of.

I am simply optimistic of a big market correction restoring some sanity to an over inflated disaster waiting to happen, nothing doom mongering about that. Until this event is upon us I suggest you get out in the air and enjoy life more lifes too short as it is.

It doesn't look like it I think it's head back in the sand time...'I don't wanna hear it I don't wanna hear it'

US Mortgage Meltdown http://money.cnn.com/2007/09/25/real_estat...sion=2007092511

'The IMF warned that the chances of a tightening of credit conditions could not be dismissed. Rodrigo de Rato, the IMF managing director, said that world growth should remain firm, but the longer the credit crisis continued, the worse the impact would be. "The consequences of the turmoil should not be underestimated," he said. "The implications will be significant and far-reaching. Credit markets are correcting, but slowly. We aren't at a stage of normality." The report said bouts of turbulence were likely to recur. "Uncertainty regarding overall losses and exposure has raised market and liquidity risks, with potentially broader implications for financial institutions," the study said, adding that a few more months were needed to assess the full impact on banks, companies and governments.' To me this reads....we really underestimated the credit risk, credit shall be tempered forth with as we cannot discount serious implications or further shock waves to the financial institutions, particually banks engaged in high risk lending practice. Ladies and Gentlemen the first stage of 'bust' is well and truly upon us.

Hardly....bears are not know for commiting (financial) suicide that will be the last of the current breed of bulls buying over priced property in a falling market.

'It will blow over and it will be back to normal in 6 months and house prices will continue to grow at a silly rate.' 'So don't expect more than a 15% fall in property prices over the next 12 months and don't be surprised if it continues to rise.' Clearly a classic hedge!