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House Price Crash Forum


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About Matthew

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  1. The CPI weighting will shift to have a large weighting on the 1p stamp... And also the £10 book token It easy really...
  2. 1. Persuade your dad to take up paragilding, base jumping or deep water soloing - even if it doesn't kill him off it should be a good distraction from money 2. Tell him that sounds a risky thing to do what with the crazy tories bound to win the next election and mess up the great things NuLab has done (if he is a NuLab supporter) 3. Show him how he can avoid inheritence tax by putting his property into trust etc etc
  3. I would say that if you are in sector that is exposed to the financial sector you will struggle. Also, I believe the public sector are in for a seriously difficult time, either tax is going to have to ramp up quickly, public sector workers get fewer and poorer, all we go Japanese (ref. government debt). The fact that the level of taxation from city workers is considerably higher then your median employees the downturn in city bonuses (remember incremental earnings are at 40% tax, 1% employer NI and about 13% employer NI) is going to hurt everyone to some extent. Nevertheless, if UK plc goes i
  4. I put this together to give an idea of the real cost of mortgages, that is the a repayment mortgage as a proportion of the salary over the life time of the mortgage. All based of average property prices and average income. The forecast assumes no inflation in house prices (the talked about soft landing) and a 4% wage inflation versus a 6% interest rate. As you can see any one who buys now is screwed unless they decide to inflate the UK out of this problem, and then they will be screwed as well. Time to move abroad?
  5. Either this is a subversive ploy by the Tories to weaken Brown or Tebbit has really gone off the rails (well we knew that anyway)! I can't beleive this!
  6. Therer are two real options to see a readjustement back to sustainable economic growth. The first is a devaluation of sterling via inflation - goods, services, wages etc all go up whilst assets do not go up. The big problem with this approach is that inflation is very difficult to control, and as soon as the rest of the world sees this happening there will be a run on sterling (seems to have started already) which will compound the problem - forcing inflation higher. Another difficulty with this approach is it makes debt extremely expensive, no one will lend money unless they will be repaid mo
  7. They will starting requiring all investors to take valium and xanax next... my share picks for the day http://www.pfizer.com/home/ http://www.roche.com/home.html
  8. Northern Rock Desperate times, they have given up on making profit and are just trying to get cash. Note sure the link will work but this is what appeared for me. May I begin by offering our customers my sincere apologies for the anxiety and inconvenience that we have caused you. I know how worried many of you must have been. Today I want to make it emphatically clear to all Northern Rock customers that we are open for business as usual. We remain a well-managed company and continue to be a safe place for your savings, loans and mortgages. The simple fact now is that the Chancellor has made
  9. 20% would leave properties unaffordable 30% would leave propoerties unaffordable 40% would leave propoerties unaffordable... House prices are much, much more over valued then ever before versus all conventional measures. If we see a recession which is long over due (huge excesses and imbalances) then avergae values in real terms will probably drop 60-70%, if inflation is allowed to run then maybe that will be 20-30% over 4-5 years. Maybe 50% without recession but even then property would be expensive. The similiarities with Japan in 1990 are all to similiar.
  10. Anyone know when this first came out. The current situation in the city is dire, it is impossible to sell on debt, there is nothing moving, so abbey is seemingly taking a big hit to shift some of it's debt. That is a 2% premium above current markets which says abbey thinks it needs to offer a big incentive to sell off this debt. How long before mortgage interest rates go the same way... Matthew
  11. Actual UK registrations in 2007 are up 2% on the firtst half of 2006 (Source ACEA). But this doesn't tell what cars are being registered. Matthew
  12. If Brown loses the next election surely he will not be given another chance, can you see the Labour party keeping him as leader?
  13. Probably because those who determine the price (traders) are waking up to the fact that they may not get much of a bonus this year as banking profits might be a little low; especially if the whole M&A train comes off the rails, which looks like it is starting to. Most companies finances are still healthy and industrial utilisation is relatively high, so unless the doomsayers are actually proved right equity (in the established markets) should ride out the worst of the credit crunch. So much for city bonuses supporting high house prices in the SE. Not expecting too many headlines like that
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