88Crash

I think you mean 'Comical Ali' Comical Ali was the PR guy we saw on TV a lot (subsequently, the Americans let him off) Chemical Ali didn't do much PR work - he was too busy killing large numbers of Iraqi's

After living most of my life in London, OK parts and rough parts, I have spent the last 5 years living in Surrey Nice area, no muggers and hopefullt I'm not tempting fate, by saying my car hasn't been broken into once Neighbours are all nice middle class folk and generally well educated YET they do not have a clue about life outside the leafy suburbs Thats why I guess they are happy to pat their taxes to support some of the stuff discussed on this thread They know there is some abuse of the system, but most don't have a real understanding about the scale of some of the problems Other side of the coin would be 'they are OK Jack' so they don't care, after all social problems such as street crime are NOT a significant problem in many UK suburbs

Give poor Rosie a break. Its a property supplement and the rate card for a single page advert is circa 30K - not surprising it a bit VI Bearish talk of a HPC won't do her career prospect any favours PS anybody noticed that UK New Homes adverts are fewer this week, than before?

Anecdotal evidence from new homes sector can be seen in adverts offering subsidies/low deposits/cashback etc, - price reduction in any language Factual evidence from January 2005 is Site visitors down by 23% from Jan 2004 More importantly reservations down 31% from Jan 2005 Although these figures show improvement and are better than the drops in Oct/Nov/Dec, hence positive talk of the spring bounce - - - SERIOUSLY in any other sector drops like the above would set alarm bells ringing!

I'll let you know in 3 months. One of my business associates went BR last June It wasn't his first choice, but he lumbered himself with 'overwhelming debt' approx 200k It was all owed to Banks/Financials (i.e. He didn't owe any money to members of the public) With regard to his status when he is discharged - his local bank manager has already told him he will be happy to open a new account for him He will be able to get a credit card, ableit with a lower limit and higher APR In other words, he will have some limitations, which isn't such a bad thing previously having 20k limits on his credit cards didn't do him any favours And before anyone post - serves him right - he shouldn't have been irresponsible NO NEED - he knows that already! On balance- his BR wasn't fun and there are a few limitations, but on the plus side it wiped out 200K

it would be interesting! Remember that most of us on this forum have limited access to real figures and we have to read between the lines Some people at the top have access to far more info then us Incidently, today with the release of the Halifax figures there was some speculation that the Feb SA minus figure could influence BOE IR policy Halifax figures are 'selective' - You know it and I know it I think its unlikely that Mervyn and the boys and girls at BOE believe the Halifax Halifax is VI House prices BOE is VI UK economy (in the macro economic sense) If and when, HPI and the esunsing consumer boom has served its macro economic pupose, the BOE will not hesitate in letting market forces take over and if that means a big HPC (-50%) so be it

To hear Mr Bootles real opinion, I would guess you have to know him well or meet him in a bar (off the record) and have a few drinks He is one voice against the majority of VI news, reports and statistics If he thought HPC was going down 50% from peak to trough and he said it publically TODAY, it would be shot down by VI's and he would have no credibilty I am sure he may 'review' his predictions as the HPC unfolds This happened last time (and the time before and the time before) FACT - Price discounts of 10% are happening now and that only been around for the last few months Does anybody seriously think that it means there is only another 10% to go the 'trough' before we are back to happy days again?

There are a few thousand developments across the UK so there will always be regional variations, but I have seen some sales figures from February and they are not looking good More importantly some of the forward indicators are looking worse (certainly worse than I have seen for the last several years) Becasue of the lag between an event(s) that affect the housing market, somtimes the forward indicators give you a better idea of how a HPC will pan out Unless there is a spring bounce fairly soon, IMO the chain of events may unfold quicker than most imagine Consider that all the indicators are almost entirely of the 'downward' nature its only optimism/sentiment that is keeping the market at current levels - very fragile

Actually in a sensible world neither is the best option. They both have their merits. Before this current global boom, there were many parts of the world, where you would rent or buy based on your circumstances The investment/property ladder/dead money just wasn't part of the equation Hopefully in the near future, the biggest HPC in living UK memory will have a positive effect and future generations will be able to rent/buy based on common sense

Whats a removal van?

They do say "you get the Politicians you deserve" (Don't mean you personally)

I think the sad thing about the UK with regard to lifstyle and quality of life is, it should be one of the best places in the world to live. Ok we can't change the weather, but then it makes us appreciate the sunny days and our holidays abroad in hotter climates We all live in a rich country, its diverse and even allowing for all the immigration in the last few decades, there is no reason why most of us shouldn't be enjoying this country It goes way beyond a simple post like this to even try to suggest the reasons for this f**k up But my point is - From all the countries I've spent time in (and thats quite a lot) it really should be SO much better in the UK for SO many more of us

Thats the bit that I find hard to accept. I spend a lot of time in South Africa and they certainly have some serious crime problems, but then you just have to shrug your shoulders and say "What do you expect -its Africa" Can't make the same excuse for the 4th richest country in the world!

Met Americans for the first time last year - you must have led a very sheltered life! (or you're about 16 years old)

I think the 'bull' and 'bear' camps are not appropriate for the housing market - those terms are best left for stock and shares IMO the UK housing market is way overpriced and out of skelter with the long term norm Hence I think the market will drop substantially, but I don't think that is a 'bearish stance', more a statement of fact Because the UK housing market is so driven by sentiment (which almost turns it into a commodity) I can understand where this bull and bear stuff comes from But houses are also homes and the majority remain that way It is only the minority that moves the UK housing market, which is why it is so hard to predict From memory all the major VI's have always got their predictions wrong - both in the boom times and in the bust times Prices are falling - Fact When does that become a HPC - certainly not overnight!

They have to sell, but not overnight, hence they are unlikely to drop 25% this week Most have just reported or are about to report, so their new financial year has only started a couple of months back Thanks to a good 2004, most have enjoyed record profits, so they are not stuck for cash just yet The discounts at the moment are in the way of incentives i.e. they pay your mortgage for a couple of years. Its like a 10% discount without actually droping the price (on paper) My advice would be to wait a bit longer and the best time to get a discount is in the last weeks of a builders financial year (often December) They tend to rush through a lot of sales in the last month to make the figures look good. If you can complete in the last couple of weeks of their financial year, you can often get something like an extra 10% off Thats not every builder and not on every development, but I have seen this happen, even when the market was still booming in 2003/04 Got to keep the boys in the City happy or it affects the share price!

15 years may apply to Kevin Maxwell, but before Kevin became the UK biggest bankrupt there was Willie Stern (property in the 70's) He went bust for 150 million (which was a lot of money back the 70's) and from memory his bankruptcy lasted about 10 years, under the old rules. Under the new rules, a very good friend of mine went bust for 200k, entirely bank loans, overdraft and credit cards It was a standard procedure - he will be clear in 12 months even though he was clearly a bit irresponsible Like I said Charlie, times have changed, just don't tell too many people

Most are already tightened up, but if they tighten up too much they loose money Thats why the system lets a minority get 30+ credit cards They would prefer that not to happen, but its factored in, the same as bankruptcy and for that matter dodgy/self cert mortgages The big lenders know exactly what is going on When somebody on 25K puts down their salary at 50K and gets a credit card with a limit of 10K - they think they have 'got one over' on the lender Exactly the same as mortgages. Its part of the big game - the lenders know how to play it better than most

With respect Charlie, thats how it was before April 2004 The rules have changed big time Thats what made me respond to the point that its like a windfall tax on the lenders All the major players have made a fortune in the Uk in the last few years - We have more plastic than the rest of Europe put together I know people in their twenties on average salaries that have 25-40k out on plastic The new laws wil get these people back in the system in 12 months and so it goes on Its a breeze as long as you don't have equity and don't need to be a company director in the next 12 months

Interesting point I have recently had two friends that have gone bankrupt under the new laws It involved institutional debt (as oppossed to owing/taking money off of the public) They both had a good result - far better than they expected and they even got a 'customer care survey' form at the end of it, the purpose being to make sure they got a good service from the receiver Things have changed in the last year!

unemployment and ill health are obvious reasons for compassion, but I would'nt underestimate the power of peer pressure I'm not saying its right, simply pointing out that peer pressure is a powerful emotion (backed up by a lot of advertising) If all your friends have BMW's, Plasma's etc the pressure is ON They earn the same as you but they have twice as many goodies How did they get so much - MEW'ed, Credit Cards If you are prudent, sensible you will let them get on with it, but a lot of people may be a bit weaker than you I don't think these people need compassion, but a bit of understanding may be in order?

Small housebuilders may have the luxury of scaling back land purchase, but the big players have to buy in advance to keep the turnover going If you built 10,000 homes last year you can't suddenly drop to 5000 homes the next year - it just doesn't work that way They will continue to build at more or less the same rate, but to sell their 'product' ultimately they will have to reduce the price They will still make a profit, just not so much and I think you are right IMupNorth, this will be one of the triggers

All too often I suggested this yesterday Although a lot of threads start in a constructive way and this includes all sides of the the argument, once a couple of people start having a dig at each other - it degenerates pretty quickly and the point is lost Not saying you guys and girls shouldn't have a go at each over - but time and a place! I wonder if its worth pinning a topic at the top of the forum, maybe call it 'Outside' Then when a couple of people are having a go, rather than carry on and ruin the thread for everybody else, you can type in "See you outside" Then you can both go to the appropriate place, the pinned topic called 'Outside' and continue Bit like a pub fight only without the fighting

Don't forget Bin Laden Binnie is partly responsible for the huge increae in global liquidity and artificially low IR's that followed 9/11 Just before that UK house prices had probably doubled from the mid nineties and were already looking pricey

"Buying fresh flowers" At last some sensible advice from the Halifax This one pearl of wisdom should raise HPI by anothe 30% this year!