A State Of Emergency - Uk Economy

[zceb90]

An article entitled A State of Emergency has been published today and concludes that, primarily due to fast rising energy import volumes and prices, UK faces a devastating trade deficit by 2013 and advance shocks (both economic and potential energy shortages) as soon as in 18 months' time. Here's the first chart in the presentation:

This forum has long been pointing out the unsustainable UK housing 'bubble' and it would now appear that the 'credit crunch', debt deflation, energy imports and the trade deficit are about to precipitate the 'perfect storm' for sterling....and a lot more besides.

[Injin]

An article entitled A State of Emergency has been published today and concludes that, primarily due to fast rising energy import volumes and prices, UK faces a devastating trade deficit by 2013 and advance shocks (both economic and potential energy shortages) as soon as in 18 months' time. Here's the first chart in the presentation:

This forum has long been pointing out the unsustainable UK housing 'bubble' and it would now appear that the 'credit crunch', debt deflation, energy imports and the trade deficit are about to precipitate the 'perfect storm' for sterling....and a lot more besides.

The problem is worse than that, because knowledge of future failure causes failure more or less right now.

An analogy - if you know the shop down the road is going to be out of stock on on the last Friday of the month, how far into that month does it get before the shop is empty?

Don't worry though, what will happen is that the state will fall aprt. The UK will cease to exist as a political entity.

[mirage]

The problem is worse than that, because knowledge of future failure causes failure more or less right now.

An analogy - if you know the shop down the road is going to be out of stock on on the last Friday of the month, how far into that month does it get before the shop is empty?

Don't worry though, what will happen is that the state will fall aprt. The UK will cease to exist as a political entity.

Injin, you don't seem that stupid, but this "social contract destroyed in 5 minutes" thing in your sig is ********.

The "scientific method" must not itself be subject to "the scientific method". It can't be, in fact. Even if there were a well-defined thing it referred to (which there isn't).

When someone says something like that it gives away to the non-thickie that they are thick. I could stop watching at that point safe in the knowledge that the man was too stupid to be making a good argument. Since you don't seem to be thick, would you like to reconsider that video man's thickness? (I'm assuming it's not you).

Edited June 24, 2008 by mirage

[cells]

Don't worry though, what will happen is that the state will fall aprt. The UK will cease to exist as a political entity.

Too much time spent on WeAreCrazyPeople.com injinnnnn....

Edited June 24, 2008 by cells

[domo]

I think the oncoming depression will lead to fiscal conservatism in government, at least by the time the conservatives are in. Whether fiscal conservatism will beat shrinking tax receipts I don't know, governments are always disposed toward running deficits but I think the big government is starting to come under attack.

[domo]

Don't worry though, what will happen is that the state will fall aprt. The UK will cease to exist as a political entity.

It wouldn't surprise me to see the UK split up in the future.

[cells]

I take it this graph assumes we continue using oil energy at our current rate?

I can tell you for a FACT that demand destruction WILL HAPPEN.

FFS humans have lived in the poles with no central heating yet we brits try to keep the house at 20 degrees centigrade in the winter so we can wear shorts and a tee-shirt.

We tend to drive 1 person per car, share with a work mate who lives close and half both your petrol bills!

If domestic gas was cut off to residential homes, people would go cold for a day or two until common sense hit them and they put on a jumper or two!!

we dont need central heating in this country, even in the WINTER!!

residential homes don't use much electricity plus electric can be generated by coal so long as our retard politicians don't outlaw it. Sharing cars, cycling, walking...

50% demand destruction of gas/oil is possible and would be relatively painless and quick imo.

[Injin]

Injin, you don't seem that stupid, but this "social contract destroyed in 5 minutes" thing in your sig is ********.

The "scientific method" must not itself be subject to "the scientific method". It can't be, in fact. Even if there were a well-defined thing it referred to (which there isn't).

When someone says something like that it gives away to the non-thickie that they are thick. I could stop watching at that point safe in the knowledge that the man was too stupid to be making a good argument. Since you don't seem to be thick, would you like to reconsider that video man's thickness? (I'm assuming it's not you).

All he says is that any methodology that you use must be subject to it's own constraints.

THat's all.

This only leaves the scientific method because it's the only thing you can apply to itself that is still left standing after you have done so.

Too much time spent on WeAreCrazyPeople.com injinnnnn....

Far too many people think that governments operate in a special bubble, seperate from all considerations such as getting paid and using resources. Once the bills stop getting paid then the state will fail.

The bills are about to go unpaid. Collapse is inevitable.

[Kurt Barlow]

I take it this graph assumes we continue using oil energy at our current rate?

I can tell you for a FACT that demand destruction WILL HAPPEN.

FFS humans have lived in the poles with no central heating yet we brits try to keep the house at 20 degrees centigrade in the winter so we can wear shorts and a tee-shirt.

We tend to drive 1 person per car, share with a work mate who lives close and half both your petrol bills!

If domestic gas was cut off to residential homes, people would go cold for a day or two until common sense hit them and they put on a jumper or two!!

we dont need central heating in this country, even in the WINTER!!

residential homes don't use much electricity plus electric can be generated by coal so long as our retard politicians don't outlaw it. Sharing cars, cycling, walking...

50% demand destruction of gas/oil is possible and would be relatively painless and quick imo.

11 million of the 15 million houses with cavity walls are uninsulated. This is madness given the above. Insulate 11 million houses (a good work not dole scheme over the next 5 years) and this would knock several % points off the Uk's gas consumption. Also save about £2 billion in imports a year.

[cells]

11 million of the 15 million houses with cavity walls are uninsulated. This is madness given the above. Insulate 11 million houses (a good work not dole scheme over the next 5 years) and this would knock several % points off the Uk's gas consumption. Also save about £2 billion in imports a year.

let me ask you a question..

last winter, when it was cold. did you stay in the house for fear of stepping outside would mean instant death from the cold??

if not why not?

was it perhaps becuase you have the correct clothing on?? a jumper or two? with a jacket on top of that?

did you freeze your **** off? or where you ok??

people live all year round in -20 centigrade with no central heating, but as you prove. we are trembling in our boots at the thought of +5 centigrate with no central heating!!

the stupid thing is, i think some brits would die if the boiler broke instead of put on another jumper!!

[zceb90]

I take it this graph assumes we continue using oil energy at our current rate?

I can tell you for a FACT that demand destruction WILL HAPPEN.

FFS humans have lived in the poles with no central heating yet we brits try to keep the house at 20 degrees centigrade in the winter so we can wear shorts and a tee-shirt.

We tend to drive 1 person per car, share with a work mate who lives close and half both your petrol bills!

If domestic gas was cut off to residential homes, people would go cold for a day or two until common sense hit them and they put on a jumper or two!!

we dont need central heating in this country, even in the WINTER!!

residential homes don't use much electricity plus electric can be generated by coal so long as our retard politicians don't outlaw it. Sharing cars, cycling, walking...

50% demand destruction of gas/oil is possible and would be relatively painless and quick imo.

I agree, there's no way UK could fund future energy imports on this scale...even if adequate supplies were out there. The report's author, Euan Mearns, makes this point clear upfront. It's reasonable to assume that the global credit crunch not only makes it more difficult for individuals and companies to borrow money, it also makes it more difficult for Governments to borrow foreign currency...and certainly to the tune of $500bn within 5 years which is what the 'business as usual' graph depicts.

A big part of the problem is that the current Gov't is totally wedded to 'endless economic growth'....and an enforced 50% reduction in consumption of 2 key sources of primary energy would throw a spanner into their economic model to say the least. Without such growth there will be even more debt defaults than are already lined up to occur as a result of HPC.

Some of us who've been readers of this and other forums have had a fair idea that this sort of scenario is headed UK's way and made some plans accordingly. Most of the public however are, I suspect, either ignoring the issue or believe that GB will sort it out by having 'Saudi open the taps'. I think they are in for quite an awakening.

[cells]

Far too many people think that governments operate in a special bubble, seperate from all considerations such as getting paid and using resources. Once the bills stop getting paid then the state will fail.

The bills are about to go unpaid. Collapse is inevitable.

the state in its current form may fail, ie public sector workers will be shed by the millions.

but the state itself will continue, afterall it only takes a few men to say , we are your leaders, and you have a state like it or not.

[oracle]

An article entitled A State of Emergency has been published today and concludes that, primarily due to fast rising energy import volumes and prices, UK faces a devastating trade deficit by 2013 and advance shocks (both economic and potential energy shortages) as soon as in 18 months' time. Here's the first chart in the presentation:

This forum has long been pointing out the unsustainable UK housing 'bubble' and it would now appear that the 'credit crunch', debt deflation, energy imports and the trade deficit are about to precipitate the 'perfect storm' for sterling....and a lot more besides.

Yup,all done beautifully and malignantly by design.

2012 will be the top of the commodity bubble.2 years on from this there will be about 2 billion people less on the planet(proven science,the cause is real unfortunately.The IRAS telescope has already picked up the object,we are going to have pole shift TWICE...once in 2012,and a worse one in early 2014)

read a bit of prophecy,and you'll realise the olympic games will be a bit of a wash-out.....literally.

....we are a bit fooked to say the least.

Edited June 24, 2008 by oracle

[Injin]

the state in its current form may fail, ie public sector workers will be shed by the millions.

but the state itself will continue, afterall it only takes a few men to say , we are your leaders, and you have a state like it or not.

You mean we get a new state after the collapse?

A much smaller, reduced in power and scope state with no central bank, sod all laws, little political power and less credibility etc?

Sure, I can see that.

[cells]

I agree, there's no way UK could fund future energy imports on this scale...even if adequate supplies were out there. The report's author, Euan Mearns, makes this point clear upfront. It's reasonable to assume that the global credit crunch not only makes it more difficult for individuals and companies to borrow money, it also makes it more difficult for Governments to borrow foreign currency...and certainly to the tune of $500bn within 5 years which is what the 'business as usual' graph depicts.

A big part of the problem is that the current Gov't is totally wedded to 'endless economic growth'....and an enforced 50% reduction in consumption of 2 key sources of primary energy would throw a spanner into their economic model to say the least. Without such growth there will be even more debt defaults than are already lined up to occur as a result of HPC.

Some of us who've been readers of this and other forums have had a fair idea that this sort of scenario is headed UK's way and made some plans accordingly. Most of the public however are, I suspect, either ignoring the issue or believe that GB will sort it out by having 'Saudi open the taps'. I think they are in for quite an awakening.

IMO the uk population is far too stuck up its on ****

people cry about fuel prices and yet they dont share their cars

people cry about gas prices yet they chose to heat their home to +20 instead of putting on another jumper

the truth is, humans basic needs are very very very cheap. We have scientists to thank for this.

All we need is food, water, and shelter. Food in terms of calories is dirt cheap. Eat rice and only rice for a week and it will cost you £2 a most. Water is near free. And anyone can pitch a tent in some NIMBYs garden and live in it fine. I would not call that a great life (unless you do something constructive with your free time, and some 23.5h a day would be free time) but it goes to show you, we can live an ok life with very little.

The point being, a lot of things we buy are choices we make and we don't need to buy. Some things like shelter are forced upon us to pay ridiculous prices. (ie you cant build you own shelter or the police will kick the crap out of you.)

[sossij]

An article entitled A State of Emergency has been published today and concludes that, primarily due to fast rising energy import volumes and prices, UK faces a devastating trade deficit by 2013 and advance shocks (both economic and potential energy shortages) as soon as in 18 months' time. Here's the first chart in the presentation:

This forum has long been pointing out the unsustainable UK housing 'bubble' and it would now appear that the 'credit crunch', debt deflation, energy imports and the trade deficit are about to precipitate the 'perfect storm' for sterling....and a lot more besides.

Excellent article, thanks zceb90.

Bum

[The Bachelor of Arts]

Yup,all done beautifully and malignantly by design.

2012 will be the top of the commodity bubble.2 years on from this there will be about 2 billion people less on the planet(proven science,the cause is real unfortunately.The IRAS telescope has already picked up the object,we are going to have pole shift TWICE...once in 2012,and a worse one in early 2014)

read a bit of prophecy,and you'll realise the olympic games will be a bit of a wash-out.....literally.

....we are a bit fooked to say the least.

Do you have any links to this??

[snowflux]

You mean we get a new state after the collapse?

A much smaller, reduced in power and scope state with no central bank, sod all laws, little political power and less credibility etc?

Sure, I can see that.

Could you give us some idea of the timescales you imagine to be applicable regarding the UK's transformation into a Somalia-like entity? I'd like to be prepared.

[stormymonday_2011]

Once again the UK government provides a stunning proof that 'those who fail to plan, plan to fail.'

Despite all the opprobrium poured on the post war British administrations from the 1950's to the 1970s they did at least try to address serious issues such as developing a balanced energy policy. Most recent governments have simply stuck their collective heads up their a**ses and done nothing. Still those of us who lived through the 1970s will be well versed with how to while away 4 hour power cuts. At least I bought a house with a chimney.

[cells]

You mean we get a new state after the collapse?

A much smaller, reduced in power and scope state with no central bank, sod all laws, little political power and less credibility etc?

Sure, I can see that.

I read your original post as the state system itself would fail and be gone.

Yes I agree the state now can fail and be replaced, not necessarily one with the things you say.

It could potentially be replaced by a police state and a dictator, or perhaps a military dictator.

Or perhaps even out right slavery or the masses by a few powerful wealthy people.

These are possibilities and although you might say the people would not stand for it, I would say if you put a rock in the “peoples” hand and asked them to attack an army with tanks, the “people” would stick to fingers up at you and accept slavery.

Hence why I would rather see this corrupt system continue because the risks in a failure could be many magnitudes worse!

If it does fail, I sure as hell don't want to be standing against the people who hold the guns/nukes.

[Kurt Barlow]

Once again the UK government provides a stunning proof that 'those who fail to plan, plan to fail.'

Despite all the opprobrium poured on the post war British administrations from the 1950's to the 1970s they did at least try to address serious issues such as developing a balanced energy policy. Most recent governments have simply stuck their collective heads up their a**ses and done nothing. Still those of us who lived through the 1970s will be well versed with how to while away 4 hour power cuts. At least I bought a house with a chimney.

Until Thatcher we seemed to have had governments that at least recognised the problem. Thatchers pathological destruction of the mining industry (not half as inefficient as she made out) will cost us dear over the next 10-15 years.

[Injin]

Could you give us some idea of the timescales you imagine to be applicable regarding the UK's transformation into a Somalia-like entity? I'd like to be prepared.

I don't think it will go that way, as it happens.

I think the state fails but it's not as much of a biggie because we have all kinds of other systems that can adapt. Somalia is the product of western interests trying to remove customary law with the western democratic model but the keep failing because the customary law is superior. The threat of a good example.

Here, we aren't being plagued by outside interests (although a good half of the globe isn't going to do any mourning and a few might cheer a bit), our political class has just ******ed it up big style.

It's fairly easy to do - just imagine at the end of this month the bulk of the public sector wage bill doesn't get paid, all the banks stop allowing withdrawals of more than a few hundred quid a month (or hyperinflated equivalent) and go from there. When this happens is unclear - if one could predict these thing accurately......but the general trend is there for certain.

[Injin]

I read your original post as the state system itself would fail and be gone.

Yes I agree the state now can fail and be replaced, not necessarily one with the things you say.

It could potentially be replaced by a police state and a dictator, or perhaps a military dictator.

Or perhaps even out right slavery or the masses by a few powerful wealthy people.

These are possibilities and although you might say the people would not stand for it, I would say if you put a rock in the “peoples” hand and asked them to attack an army with tanks, the “people” would stick to fingers up at you and accept slavery.

Hence why I would rather see this corrupt system continue because the risks in a failure could be many magnitudes worse!

If it does fail, I sure as hell don't want to be standing against the people who hold the guns/nukes.

The current state is increasingly totalitarian. When things go wrong peopel tend to opt for the opposite of what they have just had, not more of it. Or so I think, at any rate. I'm not expecting clashes in the street on a large scale or wars or any of that, just the usual british apathy sinking any would be tinpot dictator via the wonderful mechanism of complete and utter indifference.

We lead the world in being anti - political and long may it continue.

Eta - That's not to say there isn;t the risk of the state going on a bloody rampage, because its definitely there and I keep oscillating between thinking it will and it won't. it's a little like the inflation/deflation debate - ultimately it's a matter of policy and the decisions have not yet been made.

Edited June 24, 2008 by Injin

[zceb90]

Once again the UK government provides a stunning proof that 'those who fail to plan, plan to fail.'

Despite all the opprobrium poured on the post war British administrations from the 1950's to the 1970s they did at least try to address serious issues such as developing a balanced energy policy. Most recent governments have simply stuck their collective heads up their a**ses and done nothing. Still those of us who lived through the 1970s will be well versed with how to while away 4 hour power cuts. At least I bought a house with a chimney.

It's interesting to note the timescale you quote for when planning for a balanced energy policy seemed to end - the 1970's, which more or less exactly co-incided with UK becoming self suffient in oil and gas from N Sea. As Euan's article points out the gas market was liberalised to such an extent that UK now has heavy reliance on buying gas on the spot market. By contrast many other countries have long term gas supply contracts which at least provide a stable supply even if price is subject to escalation clauses somewhat tied to crude oil prices. UK's reliance on gas spot market could well prove our undoing as, within a couple of years or so, ongoing N Sea gas declines outweigh the capacity of the Interconnector and Langeled pipelines....and the requisite LNG cargoes (for which huge terminals have been constructed at Milford Haven, Isle of Grain etc) don't show up because Japan, USA or someplace else has outbid us while the LNG vessel was at sea!

This whole situation is one big mess and I don't have an easy solution. Like up2nogood I'm living in a house with existing chimneys and have 2 wood stoves installed....now why would a former oilman do that?

[cells]

Until Thatcher we seemed to have had governments that at least recognised the problem. Thatchers pathological destruction of the mining industry (not half as inefficient as she made out) will cost us dear over the next 10-15 years.

how did thatcher destroy the mining industry??...

..if only the goverment subsidised my dogs&cats dating website i would earn a good living, dam the goverment for destroying my dogs&cats dating service industry!!