brad

hang on, slowdown used to mean, lower rate of HPI. If now we have a "stalled", doesn't slowdown mean a ....err.... falldown ? In short, prices went up, now they are constant, next they will be falling. Why don't they speak plainly?

funny you mention those, because I drive past (around) that place quite often and I know that they haven't sold all their penthouses since they've built the place. This thing about others coming back onto the market and failing to sell at half price is dire news indeed. Marks and Spencer had a shop there for a short while and pulled out after few months and that shop has been empty ever since (at least a year now) My thoughts are(have been) fairly similar, but with everyone buying property around me, it feels harder to justify my bearish stance. I had people telling me to take a mortgage in crazy multiples in order to get onto the ladder. I am sticking to my guns as I consider 4 times my salary as the limit of my affordability. It is a crazy market though and I guess this is the worrying bit. If it does crash this time, I don't think the light at the end of the tunnel will be visible for some time.

Great post and useful thread. I've been lurking on this site since the end of 2005 so almost two years and I am now at a stage where I am too reconsidering my position. Fact is I have no idea what will happen, whether we are heading for a big bang/crash or a merilly go round of endless HPI When I came into this country about 11 years ago, the idea of taking a debt over 20 years or so seemed crazy. Of course, if I decided to buy something then..., but there have been many more if's since that time. I don't consider myself a market savy not even that knowledgeable but I strive to make the best decision that I can. So I almost bought a flat in 2004 (didn't know of this site then)which was in an old block of flats (ex-council, built in the 60's) somewhere in Herts. I pulled out when I found out that the block still had asbestos as part of the insulation. Now looking back I wish I bought that flat or something anyway, like a lot of people on this thread. The golden rule for me now is the cost of rent versus the cost of servicing the mortgage. For me the flat buying episode was the last time when this was the case. Crash or no crash when I can leave cheaper by buying a place rather than by renting it I will be buying. I no longer see 'this risk of being put out on the streets' as an issue when buying a house. How is that any different that not being able to pay the rent? The advantage with renting from the bank however is that you actually stand a better chance of making some money in the process as well as owning a place to live.

no of course not. If you lived through any kind of dictatorship you will know that 'we are right and everybody else is wrong'. It's a victory for the lowest common denominator (quite perverse really). That's why they have been so successful.

well it's a shame to see the many good things in UK, being left to rot (for lack of a better term), two examples being high quality education (first class 'academia') and manufacturing. I do think that the implications will be felt further afield than just on british shores. agreed, unfortunately one has to accept the world as it is for now, driven by greed and fear....

You are of course free to believe, whatever you may fancy, however living in a world of fantasy, is likely to bring desilusion at some point. you really appear to show a fair bit of shortsight. Let me explain. A british person, helps distort the local housing market, creates a false sense of housing security (house prices only go up), young family can no longer afford decent accomodation.... why would you blame them for doing whatever possible to live a decent life ? that was pretty much what you implied. if you are reffering to things like social security benefits, on that may we agree. Romania social security system is pretty much a disaster. I was taking a broader view on the term 'benefit' No one wants to import poverty, and that doesn't make you a racist. However don't forget that a lot of the poverty in this country (Britain) is 'home made'. Yes you do see more beggars around in London and many originate from Romania. Some of them are part of gipsy mafia gangs, but others are just poor folk trying to do their best (washing cars for example). However let me remind you that, when trying to address these problems at home, romanians had to endure patronising claims of racism in relation to the gipsy problem (because it is and has been a problem for many, many years), from people with no knowledge of Romania, but with egos at least as big as some of the people posting one sided views in forums such as this.

really now, but when someone reminds you guys of the atrocities that also built this economy, the reply duly comes "I cannot be blamed for my acestors' mistakes...." It looks like there is some justification in this expression: "Perfidious Albion" Well, surprise, surprise, is what the british did for centuries, on a worldwide scale... payback time ? (some may rightly say) @others Please don't take the above as a sign of disrespect for this country and its people, but I feel that biased views of the kind expressed above, need addressing. There are many positive things about Britain and the British which I admire and love, but xenofobia and selective memory are not part of those. Regards,

No, but it has seen plenty of superior british 'consultants', effectively engineering various ways of fraud. You may remember the scandal of 'bribes for visas' run by your own guys. Add to that the various british citizens being paid big money for sharing their icompetence (at least some of the time) and you get the picture. I for one will be more than happy if brits would be excluded from reaping the benefits of a relatively accesible Romanian housing market... how about that ? Also since when is London brimming with Romanians on benefits ? You are talking utter tosh. Get a life !

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Stor...2CCA876CF8FE%7D "WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- U.S. home builders started the fewest homes in nearly a decade last month, as housing starts plunged 14.3% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.408 million, the Commerce Department reported Friday. [...] Starts fell by 28% in the West, by 15% in the Midwest and by 12% in the South. Starts in the Midwest were at the lowest level since 1991. Starts in the West fell to the lowest level since 1996. It was the biggest drop in the West since 1979." I just thought this was interesting piece of news...

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/4566710.stm I saw this article on the bbc site. It went as it came, almost unnoticed. Private equity operations are a bit like buying houses, says the article. Here are some quotes for some interesting parallels: "The last time the debt-to-equity ratio was so high was in the late 1980s, when many private equity investments were hit by the eventual economic downturn and rising interest rates." "Such stories might suggest that the golden days of private equity will soon be over, but the facts don't yet support this view. Interest rates are low, stock markets are rising and the total number of private equity receiverships fell in 2005. But according to Mr Cullinan, a readjustment is inevitable. You can't have a period of rapid growth without a slowdown at the end of it, and history repeats itself, he argues. "The history of private equity is one of exponential growth, followed by a crash, then growth again."

I think that various countries are going to be affected in different ways. I know a bit more about the Romania property market (I bought a house there recently). It has seen huge increases in property value during the past 10 years, mostly fuelled by money made outside Romania. You can still find bargains (just), but in my view it is no longer a good time to invest if you are looking for a certain quick buck. It is hard to tell how a slump in the western markets will affect Eastern Europe housing market. The main thing to bear in mind though is that some of these countries still need a lot of investment, so the housing market included is nowhere near saturation - I think that this factor alone makes those eastern markets less influenced by the trends in the highly saturated housing markets abroad. I hope this helps somehow.

maybe a bit off topic, but these arguments about what this point increase does, or whatever index shows, reminded me of a film quite old, but still relevant in my view http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0094982/plotsummary