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House Price Crash Forum


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About Researcher2000

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  1. I really think you should re-read that. 40s and 50s currently hold the largest debt burden. Thankfully I'm not a cr*py researcher so I know this.
  2. Up to your usual form then Rents! Please actually read my posts before you sound a troll alert. They are reasoned and IMO accurate. I have neither been abusive nor ranting. Not exactly classic troll behaviour. I wish we could say the same about you. If you think I'm a troll please do not dignify me with a reply as it spoils a thread by making it unreadable. Night then.
  3. Ah yes, the one possible chink in the stagnation argument! IMO this argument doesn't hold for two reasons: 1. Base rates rose 125 pts over a 25 month period and we saw little impact feeding through to the market until they had risen for quite a while. Why then would 1 small 25 pt fall cause so much of an impact so quickly? 2. If the stabalisation in prices was due to IR reduction then shouldn't we have seen a rise in consumer confidence on the high street first as low ticket purchases take precidence, especially now in the lead up to christmas? Shouldn't consumer confidence in fact now a rising leading indicator? This would be a classic fools rally, but this is not what is occuring. Instead we are seeing the opposite, people buying homes and starting to save. Not exactly a classic response to easing IR.
  4. Possibly but it would be far easier and cheaper for HPC to place a link to such a large the document in the blog! Saying that, the exec summary might fit into a post or two, but not much use to serious researchers as it is a summary. And you'd know that the idea of having models is to predict a trend! If we had a crash then 5 years would be about right, but as I said before IMO you are whistling in the dark. If you are so convinced of a crash perhaps you'd like to explain why what should traditionally be a quiet time of year for property is turning into one of the busiest since last year? I suppose you could trot out the 'flight to quality' argument, but that has so many flaws as to be almost invalid. Not least of which is the fact that the adjusted volatility index should have started to rise if this was the case, not fall! Or maybe you'd fall back on the 'V.I's are hiding the truth' which would be sad as it is total paranoia. Maybe if only a few were showing rises in their indexes you could argue that point of view, but when nearly ALL are showing rises MOM??!! The VI spin argument really does start to fall apart at that point! Sorry, it's not personal, but you are not exactly dealing with an 'interested amateur' in this area.
  5. No, it's an honest question, and a valid one. For the last 2 years my team and I have been researching the global housing market with a particular focus on the UK (for funding reasons - economic research has to sadly be paid for somehow!). The research part of the project is now over and so after two years of lurking on HPC and other sites (great blog by the way) it's time for me to go on home. During that time a lot has happened; when we started no one thought about bubbles! For a while, it has been touch and go for property but now it appears we are turning a corner and the crash feared by a few is not going to materialise. Our research also supported this finding 6 months ago when we submitted the first model for scrutiny. So why are you (if you are) still a bear? You had a point 1 year ago but now it is clear the evidence does not support this point of view? I don't honestly think it's habit as there are a lot of intelligent people on this site. So is it that you enjoy being contrarians? Anyway, many thanks to the author of this site (Gavin's the handle isn't it?) and thanks for filling my last two years with what has been, on the whole, an intelligent and well argued debate. I sincerely hope that you get what you want and a crash occurs, but sadly IMHO you are whistling in the dark. If anyone has any interest in our findings let me know as we may be submitting the results for publication in the New Year if we can get the permission of the consortium. Good luck
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