IP Newcomer Posted May 16, 2008 Posted May 16, 2008 I looked into self build a few years ago and came to the conclusion that at that time it was not going to really save money in the South East until you were looking at 4-5 bedroom places. Below that size the savings (if any) were minimal due to the price of land with planning permission. Now, however: 1) There must be quite a few suitable plots with planning permission in principle but which are not likely to be developed soon, with cash hungry builders willing to negotoate 2) Timber frame kits are reasonably cheap, but as with building materials, there are likely to be few meaningful discounts 3) Builders are looking for work and so you are likely to get better quality builders for the same price, especially for ready cash Is anyone else thinking along the same lines? Quote
Sledgehead Posted May 16, 2008 Posted May 16, 2008 Land is valued on a residual basis. Unless you can show some chart that disproves this and illustrates that land bottoms 2-3 years ahead of property, I can't see why said builder would sell you land at the floor price, even if he is cash strapped. If he sell at a discount now, what sort of deal will you get at the nadir, when "undiscounted" prices are the same as "discounted" prices now? In short, I honestly can't see a way to short cut any fall. Quote
cells Posted May 16, 2008 Posted May 16, 2008 Is anyone else thinking along the same lines? land prices will cash far harder than house prices. dont buy land now, unless you get a MASSIVE discount Quote
IP Newcomer Posted May 17, 2008 Author Posted May 17, 2008 Land is valued on a residual basis. Unless you can show some chart that disproves this and illustrates that land bottoms 2-3 years ahead of property, I can't see why said builder would sell you land at the floor price, even if he is cash strapped. If he sell at a discount now, what sort of deal will you get at the nadir, when "undiscounted" prices are the same as "discounted" prices now? In short, I honestly can't see a way to short cut any fall. If I remember the last crash correctly, residential land was a leading indicator (as were building companies). Perhaps those who were economically active adults in 1990 could confirm this or tell me I'm talking rot. No charts, though. If new building is dramatically curtailed then the demand for building land will go down very quickly. The supply will also go up as there tends to be a long lead time. I do take cells point that land prices are not showing the massive falls that you would expect them to. So buying now may be a bad idea. However it may be better to self build sooner than to buy second hand. Quote
laurejon Posted May 17, 2008 Posted May 17, 2008 (edited) I purchased a plot in 1990 for 115k, I say plot it had an asbestos shack on. I knocked the shack down to save on Rates and put in a application for a pair of semi detatched chalet bungalows which was successfull however I held off the build as the market had collapsed by the time the application was approved. My Bank which was Lloyds later valued the land at 25k, and at 25k it would be impossible to have built the houses and covered the costs of the build let alone the land value. That is how far and how quickly property and land dropped in price. Land is only worth what the end product is going to be worth!!!. Anyone around during that period will know you could buy a house at a fraction of the build costs, and that doesnt even include the land value. Land in effect became worthless as it was a liability sitting around with no commercial value. Edited May 17, 2008 by laurejon Quote
IP Newcomer Posted May 17, 2008 Author Posted May 17, 2008 I purchased a plot in 1990 for 115k, I say plot it had an asbestos shack on. I knocked the shack down to save on Rates and put in a application for a pair of semi detatched chalet bungalows which was successfull however I held off the build as the market had collapsed by the time the application was approved.My Bank which was Lloyds later valued the land at 25k, and at 25k it would be impossible to have built the houses and covered the costs of the build let alone the land value. That is how far and how quickly property and land dropped in price. Land is only worth what the end product is going to be worth!!!. Anyone around during that period will know you could buy a house at a fraction of the build costs, and that doesnt even include the land value. Land in effect became worthless as it was a liability sitting around with no commercial value. Thanks for that. Self build postponed for a long while. Quote
Guest DissipatedYouthIsValuable Posted May 17, 2008 Posted May 17, 2008 I looked into self build a few years ago and came to the conclusion that at that time it was not going to really save money in the South East until you were looking at 4-5 bedroom places. Below that size the savings (if any) were minimal due to the price of land with planning permission.Now, however: 1) There must be quite a few suitable plots with planning permission in principle but which are not likely to be developed soon, with cash hungry builders willing to negotoate 2) Timber frame kits are reasonably cheap, but as with building materials, there are likely to be few meaningful discounts 3) Builders are looking for work and so you are likely to get better quality builders for the same price, especially for ready cash Is anyone else thinking along the same lines? Too early. Not even the first sniff of the shitstorm of desperation in the air yet. Quote
IP Newcomer Posted May 17, 2008 Author Posted May 17, 2008 Too early. Not even the first sniff of the shitstorm of desperation in the air yet. Not for normal house sellers, but builders shares are taking a well deserved beating and housing starts are, well, stopping. The pros seem to have worked out that if there is going to be a panic you should panic first. Quote
laurejon Posted May 17, 2008 Posted May 17, 2008 Building land is becoming cheaper by the week, someone posted auction results here the other day for an Auction in the South West. Many properties were passed up, and I was suprised to see building land passed up. Last year there was a queue a mile long for building plots, and if you went into an agents office and asked if they had any building plots on their books they would fall around the floor laughing. Quote
thod Posted May 17, 2008 Posted May 17, 2008 I looked at land last week. There is plenty of agricultural land, real cheap, as soon as a plot gets planning permission it goes up 100 fold in price. There was nothing that made me think 'bargain'. Quote
council dweller Posted May 17, 2008 Posted May 17, 2008 I looked into self build a few years ago and came to the conclusion that at that time it was not going to really save money in the South East until you were looking at 4-5 bedroom places. Below that size the savings (if any) were minimal due to the price of land with planning permission.Now, however: 1) There must be quite a few suitable plots with planning permission in principle but which are not likely to be developed soon, with cash hungry builders willing to negotoate 2) Timber frame kits are reasonably cheap, but as with building materials, there are likely to be few meaningful discounts 3) Builders are looking for work and so you are likely to get better quality builders for the same price, especially for ready cash Is anyone else thinking along the same lines? For some on here self-build maybe the only way get themselves a house. How about a permanent self-build thread? Maybe one could start in a few months if there's a real 'land price crash.'.....this thread would be of great interest, even to non-self builders I think. Quote
Jimmyb Posted May 17, 2008 Posted May 17, 2008 CD I think you might have something here, If land prices fall which they are bound to and builders are desperate for work then it must be a sensible option to self build. Quote
stevebrowne Posted May 17, 2008 Posted May 17, 2008 For some on here self-build maybe the only way get themselves a house. How about a permanent self-build thread? Maybe one could start in a few months if there's a real 'land price crash.'.....this thread would be of great interest, even to non-self builders I think. Yes; in fact maybe even a self-build forum section? Quote
council dweller Posted May 17, 2008 Posted May 17, 2008 Yes; in fact maybe even a self-build forum section? ....I wouldn't go that far, there are, afterall, whole sites for self-builders ! I just think that the far from easy option of self build is something of interest and may inspire people on here and is linked to many of the issues discussed ....planing, labour costs, goverment controls,self sufficiency,energy issues etc. Quote
Boomer Baby Posted May 17, 2008 Posted May 17, 2008 (edited) Building land is becoming cheaper by the week, someone posted auction results here the other day for an Auction in the South West. Many properties were passed up, and I was suprised to see building land passed up.Last year there was a queue a mile long for building plots, and if you went into an agents office and asked if they had any building plots on their books they would fall around the floor laughing. Completely agree about EA attitudes 12 months ago as I’ve looked for self-build plots for some time now, mainly in the South Midlands but also in Wales and the Welsh borders. Generally speaking, I see three types of plot possibilities available: Infill or part of an existing garden on which the owner has obtained outline or full planning permission. These are almost always speculative projects in which the owner stands to make a lot of money out of an otherwise unused “asset” and will apparently bide their time for the “investment” to come good. Prices range from £80k (parts of Wales) to £250k upwards (Worcestershire, Warwickshire, Gloucestershire) and more if even close to commutable distance of London. As yet, I don’t see many instances of prices falling. Managed self-build developments in which a developer may provide infrastructure such as roads and drainage then sells off individual plots with detailed planning permission. Quite rare, as expensive as a normal development less construction costs and the possibility you may be living on a building site for years to come. Barns and other farm buildings for “conversion”. Often the best chance to find a reasonable size plot in a semi-rural setting but always expensive and sometime ludicrously so. I hope Laurejon is correct and prices are starting to come down but my limited experience to date is that plot owners only become “motivated” when planning permission is about to need renewal! Edited for sense! Edited May 17, 2008 by Boomer Baby Quote
james armstrong Posted May 17, 2008 Posted May 17, 2008 Hello IP Newcomer i self built some time ago. my example as a comment on your three points 1 i 'found' a plot, twice. inboth cases it was theside garden of an existing house one in Finchley , one in Muswell Hill . I bought the house with a loan , sold it off, and kept the garden. then applied for pp .firsdt one i got, second one i found it already had pp to knock down the garage and build a dwelling! 2 why buy kits when you can build yourself? Its low tech , a large collection of small sub systems many of which u can do yourself. 3 as above why employ more sub cotractor/builders than u have to? You verbalise the (what i reckon is deluiberate) difficulty ss-b is up against. the system is geared to help the corporate builders, the landowners and the banks (the high land and house prices force you to get a loan. The govt helps them pressure u into debt. This is not (just) me raving,( its that too.I am so mad at theexploitation) but an analysis of monetary policy from the bank of england , barker report and Treasury advisers like the National Planning and Housing advisory Unit and its chair person Prof.stephen nickell . I advise,dont get into debt as teh building takes time theinteret builds up alarmigly consuming any cost savings- thats what mortgages are meant to do. Pursue the idea, be creative in looking for a plot, and campaign with me to get a special plg category with preference for self occupying self builders. Above all nerwork for s-b as a way of helping others beat govt policy of deliberate housing exploitation through debt. . I looked into self build a few years ago and came to the conclusion that at that time it was not going to really save money in the South East until you were looking at 4-5 bedroom places. Below that size the savings (if any) were minimal due to the price of land with planning permission.Now, however: 1) There must be quite a few suitable plots with planning permission in principle but which are not likely to be developed soon, with cash hungry builders willing to negotoate 2) Timber frame kits are reasonably cheap, but as with building materials, there are likely to be few meaningful discounts 3) Builders are looking for work and so you are likely to get better quality builders for the same price, especially for ready cash Is anyone else thinking along the same lines? Quote
council dweller Posted May 17, 2008 Posted May 17, 2008 You verbalise the (what i reckon is deluiberate) difficulty ss-b is up against.the system is geared to help the corporate builders, the landowners and the banks (the high land and house prices force you to get a loan. The govt helps them pressure u into debt. This is not (just) me raving,( its that too.I am so mad at theexploitation) but an analysis of monetary policy from the bank of england , barker report and Treasury advisers like the National Planning and Housing advisory Unit and its chair person Prof.stephen nickell . I advise,dont get into debt as teh building takes time theinteret builds up alarmigly consuming any cost savings- thats what mortgages are meant to do. Pursue the idea, be creative in looking for a plot, and campaign with me to get a special plg category with preference for self occupying self builders. Above all nerwork for s-b as a way of helping others beat govt policy of deliberate housing exploitation through debt. . Yes, very good. 'self occupying self builders'.......that's a great idea but something that Labour and the Tories would fight tooth and nail against. You are campaigning for this? How? And where do we sign? Quote
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