Wednesday, June 30, 2010
This might restart HPC
Emergency Budget 'Will Cost 1.3 Million Jobs'
Chancellor George Osborne's tough emergency budget will cost more than a million jobs across the UK, according to a leaked Treasury report.
Posted by mr g @ 10:24 AM (2801 views)
37 thoughts on “This might restart HPC”
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drewster says:
“100-120,000 public sector jobs and 120-140,000 private sector jobs assumed to be lost per annum for five years through cuts.”
It’s not all happening at once; so any effect on the housing market will be slowed. Also by spreading it over five years, it gives the economy time to grow and provide new jobs for the people made redundant. It’s bad news if you’re affected, but it’s far better than having massive instant cuts like we’ve seen in Ireland, Greece, Latvia, Iceland, etc.
Cheeckie Charlie says:
Spreading this pain out will cause job insecurity, a phrase which hasn’t been mentioned on this site but was to the fore in the 90’s. This held the housing market down for years as no one wanted to commit to a mortgage with the continued threat to their jobs.
dbc reed says:
Typical of this site.The prospect of 1.3m mill job losses and its Whoopee!House prices might fall! Many HPC-ers are more obsessed with house prices than Homeownerists and apparently less concerned about jobs and incomes.The trick is to get house prices down while keeping up the money supply (hence LVT).Its perfectly easy to get house prices down by destroying the economy.
techieman says:
Drewster Agreed – I thought about posting this too, but didn’t for the reasons you stat. Having said that I wonder if the unemployment figures will actually be worse than that for a while, and of course – as you say, its based on all other things being equal.
We live in a globalised world though, so all other things might actually not be equal!
techieman says:
dbc – not sure there is glee at all. Not from this quarter at any rate – the opposite infact. Can you direct us to anyone saying whoopee? Its a news item and has been posted as such, pure and simple.
mystie010 says:
@ dbc reed “Typical of this site.The prospect of 1.3m mill job losses and its Whoopee!” Perhaps this is the same Whoopee! that every landlord I have ever had, has rubbed his/her hands together and gone – “Yes I’ll screw you over, make sure you pay me lots of your hard earned cash while I sit on my fat @rse and do nothing!” So please forgive me if I am less than bothered at the loss of these jobs, although I do feel for those affected. Indeed I’m not jumping for joy at all – far from it. I would hate to see anyone unemployed, but at the same time I’m sick of funding everyone else’s lifestyle at my own expense. I am a business owner and a productive member of this economy. However I am sick of having to shell out month on month to someone, who just because they bought at the right time, can sit around leeching my cash off me including the letting agency as well. All while doing nothing! My beef is with the BTL brigade and not with public sector workers. I just wanted to set the record straight so please count me out of that Whoopee. recaptcha: dwarfism power (I’m not a dwarf either).
estrader says:
For me it has nothing to do with house prices and everything to do with a truly sustainable economy and free market forces rather than Government interference, support and bailouts. If it was purely about jobs and incomes then sure, let’s build a massive steam train building industry a fletching industry and siege weapon factories. These should create plenty of employment, funded by the government of course.
mrflibble says:
@6. mystie010…
“I would hate to see anyone unemployed, but at the same time I’m sick of funding everyone else’s lifestyle at my own expense.”
Amen brother.
“However I am sick of having to shell out month on month to someone, who just because they bought at the right time, can sit around leeching my cash off me including the letting agency as well.”
Agreed, the right time to buy should be whenever you want, same as the right time to sell, as houses should not be casino chips. If people want to ‘invest’ their money the stock market is always open…
With regard to the jobs losses, sure it’s a tragedy, but the main tragedy here is the fat that Labour built up during their term in office.
Thecountofnowhere says:
1.3 million non jobs must have been created in order to support an asset bubble.
Millions of immigrants allowed into the UK to take up jobs so other people can have better paid non jobs.
Shocking.
1.3 millions people should gtet off their backsides and go find something productive to do.
jack c says:
titaniccaptain – I was wondering what to send to you as a house warming present – a spell checkers on it’s way ! All the best for Friday.
ReCAPTCHA – dummies Road (seriously)
quiet guy says:
@Drewster
“spreading it over five years”
I’m not convinced that the government has 5 years; that’s a long time to hold together a coalition government and Labour will be jumping up and down saying ‘Look what the nasty ConLibs did. If you’d listened to us and invested in a recovery then things would have been so much better …’ The next election might be very nasty with Labour riding back in.
peter says:
The tax increases will destroy jobs, make no mistake.
But as for the so-called public sector (public sector of what?) cuts, I wouldn’t worry too much. Not paying people as cycling advisors/outreach workers/culture champions etc will free up resources for productive jobs, so the net result will be positive.
I think we also need to avoid confusing employment with production. I think I’d be right in saying that North Korea has very low unemployment, but because those who are working are not producing much, this is still a very poor country.
The Condems here could end unemployment at a stroke by putting people to work digging ditches…
jack c says:
titaniccaptain – paperback on its way “How to Win Friends and Influence People” – Dale Carniegie (LOL)
techieman says:
Titanic Capn – this is what i wrote on the thread about JD making an appearance on R5L:
“STR – yes it was actually (looking at it from a impartial perspective) quite ironic when that they asked JD if he were a renter or owner. He always used to talk about his rented property but this time he was very coy about it.[infact it was obvious he’s bought – although maybe Titanic Cap’n may know more]”
Do you? No? Yes (but sworn to secrecy) or Yes and able to divulge?
uncle tom says:
There can be no escaping the fact that balancing the nation’s books will inevitably impact on employment, both directly and indirectly.
The important thing for the govt. to do is to provide as many opportunities as possible for the unemployed to find new work..
..and when other industry is in the doldrums, boosting housebuilding is a tried and tested solution.
Build baby, – build!!
cat and canary says:
titaniccaptain, that wasn’t Castleford was it?!!!
charlie brooker says:
Sky: Emergency Budget ‘Will Cost 1.3 Million Jobs’
So what did house prices do on this news? Rise 0.1% for the month!!
nomad says:
TC only one piece of advice. “Run for your life”.
simon68 says:
http://img130.imageshack.us/img130/2735/publicsectoremployment.gif
“….but just don’t look at the south eats (Deliberate spelling mistake Jack C but I thought ‘South Eats’ quite apt) because it wont be hit as severely as the rest of the UK which has a greater dependence on the public sector.â€
No, every city and town, everywhere across the country does have a high proportion of public sector employees out of working population.
nickb says:
@EStrader at 7
If only it were that simple. most of our money supply is issued as mortgage debt. so deflating the economy in the manner the government is doing risks destroying the money supply via depressing the housing market. our productive economy has a huge parasitic appendage not of public sector waste but bloated financial sector. The truly sustainable productive jobs (which I guess we all want to see unless we are a banker or some other breed of parasite) will go to the wall too if there is no money around.
Nick
mark wadsworth says:
Re what Simon68 says, the idea that there are fewer public sector workers in London is a myth – like anywhere else, it’s about one in four workers in public sector, fakecharity sector, consultancies blah blah blah, and they are relatively high paid as well (all the Whitehall bods for a start).
Crunchy says:
8. titaniccaptain And to think that you called me crazy some time back for perversly mutilating your name. lol
Some of the Welsh are more British than most of us however. Everything has it’s drawbacks.
Recapcha…implodes said
happy mondays says:
TC all i can say is, Have you seen the Wicker man (original) Edward woodward..Don’t just think about the Brit Eckland scene! Think what happened to Edward !
Jrhartley says:
Just interested – how many people who post on HPC have been posting about the market crash since 2003? Because obviously you can be right on fundamentals, but totally wrong by not understanding markets and politics. A stopped clock is right twice a day – I just don’t really understand the point of a forum moaning about the price of property. It is what it is – bigger fool theory in action, same as the stock market. You can spend you life railing against it, or being afraid that the moment you put your toe in the water a tidal wave will come and wipe you out, or you can just put you cards on the table, rent, and wait for your expectation of lower prices to come true.
Obviously the downside is if you’ve been a stale bear since 2003 on property, you’ve been paying rent and thereby not had the opportunity to really make a place you’re own, and you’ve passed up the opportunity to have bagged the increase in property prices – regardless of how ‘moral’ that is, in the intervening period.
You get this a lot on stockmarket discussion groups, a bit of gloating when it goes up, goading when it goes down by various posters. I just don’t really get it. I could understand if it was more about people asking questions about fundamentals, but most of the posts seem to be about taking any bit of news and adding a doom-monger scenario to it.
I don’t know what I think – I can see both sides of the coin:
a) Depression, huge unemployment, high interest rates, property prices crater;
b) Depression, debt crisis, gov’t run the presses non-stop, interest rates stay low, savers and those long cash totally shafted, asset value rise rapidly in nominal terms, eroding fixed nominal debt (mortgages).
I genuinely think that the balance of probabilities is evenly balanced between those in terms of likely outcomes, and also in terms of how people are reading the current situation.
dbc reed says:
All getting desperately confused.At various places in the above its the public sector thats an unproductive drag on good old us; other people nominate as unproductive the entire financial services industry (ly private sector) and yet others the private sector buy to let operator or old fashioned landlord.Interesting.
still renting says:
The full report makes clear, however, that the expectation is that 2.5 million new jobs will be created by the private sector in the same period, so we’re still looking at a net increase in the number of jobs, and a decrease in unemployment.
Unless there is a double-dip, (which is still clearly a strong possibility), it is likely that unemployment is now close to its peak and will therefore not be putting further downward pressure on house prices. If house prices are to fall again, the main driver will have to be an increase in mortgage interest rates (unlikely this year) or a decent increase in supply, perhaps from “accidental landlords” deciding that the time has come to sell.
mark says:
what is interesting in the areas of overbuild flats like Liverpool and Manchester, they have a very high number of local authority workers.
If i had my way i would sack them all and start over.. new authorities and new ideas, rather than the old corrupt ways and people just looking after their own jobs and not caring about the actual work they do, there is little or no pride in work these days, just a sit on my a** and watch my house price go up..
Mark Wadsworth says:
DBC, what’s confusing?
About half the public sector and half the banking system is entirely superfluous (and hence wealth-destroying), private landlords are largely neutral, I’ve never singled them out for anything. They pay rather more tax than yer average homeowner at the very least. If the tax system were fiscally neutral as between landlords/tenants and owner-occupiers, then this would be a big step forward (Schedule A taxation and full taxation of capital gains, in other words).
jack c says:
Following on from titaniccaptain’s post (Wednesday, June 30, 2010 03:32PM) – public sector workers in the North East of England account for an estimated 52-54% of the workforce.
techieman says:
Jrhartley
Thanks for your post. You have raised some good points – try to ask the webmaster to make your comments current – you can use me as a referal if this is yr first post.
Yours truly not guilty by the way of going on about it in 2003,4,5,6. Infact for me the pin was the fact that NR could no longer secure wholesale money market funding.
As you say the balloon gets bigger and bigger but its very difficult to know when there will be a pop. To me NR was obvious (in real time) as the pin, because the rationale of it showed big pressures in the derivatives markets. When the CDO / CDS then snowballed…. Well even more obvious.
alan_540 says:
@34 Mark Wadsworth, DBC is an old communist – he’s easily confused with these capitalist ideas.
alan_540 says:
@34 Mark Wadsworth, DBC is an old communist – he’s easily confused with these capitalist ideas.
growler says:
Hi JRhartley
– Can’t see press printing in top gear and low interest rates. If we print so much cash, bond rates would soar and we’d be pretty quickly defaulting on debt.
More likely a best case 2-3 years of a negative trajectory property market. Worst case a longer, shallower market for 5-6 years on a slow downward trajectory.
Either way, interest rates and other assets will outperform property. You’ll need to be flexible to chase the jobs that are around. All of that will reduce the eagerness with which to purchase. This will also keep property prices down. Since IR will get better, it will eb a better idea no watch your cash grow in anything but UK property.
alan_540 says:
Oops… I’ve been reCaptch’d.
“think gingrich”
mr g says:
dbc reed @3 “Typical of this site.The prospect of 1.3m mill job losses and its Whoopee!House prices might fall!”
I did not post this article in the spirit that you imply.
As I own my home outright, (I’m not bragging either), I have no personal interest in HPC other than fair play for anyone wishing to buy a home which at the current obscene prices levels is damned near impossible unless you’re a banker, politician, celeb or footballer, who all share 2 traits:greed and crass stupidity.
mr g says:
Another trait I should have included which is common to bankers,politicians and footballers is incompetence.
happy mondays says:
Like it, mr g
Rc financial morals