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Why, according to Nationwide & Halifax, have avg nominal house prices fallen YoY (5.3% & 4.6% respectively)
— housepricecrash (@housepricecrash) September 28, 2023
but
in the 'official' land registry avg sold price data they are 'flat'. (& indeed in some regions, note the North East, are up).
Because they lag. pic.twitter.com/vR0rYoaW1V
Track what’s really moving UK house prices…
| Data Point | Latest Reading | 1 m/o change | 3 m/o change | 12 m/o change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mortgage Approvals | 49,444 | -5161 | -120 | -13,735 |
| 5yr Fixed Mortgage Rate | 5.71 | 0.76 | 1.54 | 2.28 |
| M4 Growth (%) | -8.3 | 0.5 | 0.9 | -2.2 |
| GFK Index | -25 | 5 | 2 | 19 |
| Avg Real Weekly Earnings (£) | 515 | 4 | 7 | 5 |
| Score | – | 1 | 1 | -1 |
Latest: House Price Crash News
Wednesday, Dec 6 2023 Add a News Blog Article
London is in negative territory (-0.8%) YoY
MoM sold prices down
On a seasonally adjusted basis, the average UK house price decreased by 0.5% in July 2023, following a month-on-month increase of 0.7% in June 2023.
Represents annual fall of c£14,600 on a typical home
"August sees further weakness in house prices"
“August saw a further softening in the annual rate of house price growth to -5.3%, from -3.8% in July, the weakest rate since July 2009. Prices fell by 0.8% over the month, after taking account of seasonal effects. “The softening is not surprising, given the extent of the rise in borrowing costs in recent months, which has resulted in activity in the housing market running well below pre-pandemic levels.
Further falls in house prices
Halifax HPI July '23
“Expectations of further Base Rate increases from the Bank of England were tempered by a better-than expected inflation report for June. However, while there have been recent signs of borrowing costs stabilising or even falling, they will likely remain much higher than homeowners have become used to over the last decade."
BOE report
Bank Rate increased to 5.25%
At its meeting ending on 2 August 2023, the MPC voted by a majority of 6–3 to increase Bank Rate by 0.25 percentage points, to 5.25%. Two members preferred to increase Bank Rate by 0.5 percentage points, to 5.5%, and one member preferred to maintain Bank Rate at 5%.
House prices further into negative territory
Nationwide HPI Jul 2023
Headlines: Monthly Index: 517.8 Monthly Change: -0.2% Annual Change: -3.8% Average Price (not seasonally adjusted) £260,828
No spring bounce in May ’23
Latest Land Registry Sold Prices
House prices fall 0.4% MoM when seasonally adjusted. (0.00% non S.A). London falling 1.2% MoM.
UK Property Market Leading Indicators
Youtube video
YouTube video showing lending falling but mortgage spreads are low.
Real House Prices
Reviews: Stop Getting Ripped Off
UK House Prices Graph
The UK average house price is now £291,385
- As of Sep 2023 the UK Average House Price is £291,385
- The House Price Index [HPI] now currently stands at 152.8
- Property prices have fallen by 0.50% when compared to the same month last year and have decreased 0.10% when compared to the previous month.
Source: Land Registry
UK House Price Index
| Source website | Period covered | Average house price | Monthly change (%) | Annual change (%) | Official releases |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| e.serv (prev LSL Acadata HPI) (England and Wales) | Oct 23 | £362,777 |  0.40 |
4.10 |
Oct 2023 |
| Halifax House Price Index | Oct 23 | £281,974 |  1.10 |
3.20 |
Oct 2023 |
| Office for National Statistics [O.N.S] | Sep 23 | £291,000 | 0.50 |
0.10 |
Sep 2023 |
| Zoopla / Hometrack | Nov 23 | £264,600 | 0.08 |
1.20 |
Nov 2023 |
| HM Land Registry UK HPI | Sep 23 | £291,385 | 0.50 |
0.10 |
Sep 2023 |
| Nationwide House Price Index | Nov 23 | £258,557 | 0.20 |
2.00 |
Nov 2023 |
| Rightmove ‘Asking’ Price Index | Nov 23 | £362,143 | 1.70 |
1.30 |
Nov 2023 |
House Price Predictions
If you have discovered other or revised predictions that you’d like added to this list then send an email to us with all the information for each column and also a link to a website that contains the information so that we can verify the data.
This table is now sorted by the date that the prediction was made.
| Source website | Analyst | Photo | Date prediction made | Amount predicted | Region | Time Period | Evidence | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP Rating | SP Rating |  |
2022 | Overvalued by 50% | UK | Not Stated |  |
”SP Rating has stated that London and the South East of England is overvalued by 50%. They further the statement by saying the rest of the UK is overvalued by 20%”
|
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