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UK Average House Price – £270,708

Land Registry HPI Data [Jan 2021]

UK house prices increased by 10.0% in the year to November 2021, up from 9.8% in October 2021. On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, average house prices in the UK increased by 1.2% between October and November 2021, compared with an increase of 1.0% during the same period a year earlier (October and November 2020).

Posted by Old Man George @ 12:44 PM 0 Comments

Rightmove London ‘Asking Prices’

Rightmove London

Jan 2022 Data: £629,286 MoM -1.2% / YoY +4.2%

Posted by Old Man George @ 12:44 PM 0 Comments

£276,091 YoY 9.8% MoM 1.1%

Halifax HPI (Dec-21) Full Year

Average UK property price hits a new record high of £276,091 • House prices have increased by over £24,500 in 2021, the largest annual cash rise since March 2003 • House price growth in 2022 expected to slow

Posted by Old Man George @ 11:31 AM 0 Comments

UK House Prices Adjusted for RPI Inflation

Latest: Q4 2021 'Real House Prices'

'Real' inflation adjusted house prices in the UK grew from Q4 2020 (£245,906) to Q4 2021 (£253,113) by 2.93%

Posted by Old Man George @ 12:49 PM 1 Comments

Full Year (2021) House Price Data

Nationwide House Prices 2021

Commenting on the figures, Robert Gardner, Nationwide's Chief Economist, said: “Annual house price growth remained in double digits in December at 10.4%, making 2021 the strongest calendar year performance since 2006. Prices rose by 1% month-on-month, after taking account of seasonal effects. “The price of a typical UK home is now at a record high of £254,822, up £23,902 over the year - the largest rise we’ve seen in a single year in cash terms. Prices are now 16% higher than before the pandemic struck in early 2020. “Demand has remained strong in recent months, despite the end of the stamp duty holiday at the end of September. Mortgage approvals for house purchase have continued to run above pre-pandemic levels, despite the surge in activity seen earlier in the year. Indeed, in the first 11 months of 2021 the total number of property transactions was almost 30% higher than over the same period of 2019. “At the same time, the stock of homes on the market has remained extremely low throughout the year, which has contributed to the robust pace of price growth. Will the market cool in 2022? “It appears likely that the housing market will slow next year, since the stamp duty holiday encouraged many to bring forward their house purchase in order to avoid additional tax. The Omicron variant could reinforce the slowdown if it leads to a weaker labour market. Even if wider economic conditions remain resilient, higher interest rates are likely to exert a cooling influence. Indeed, house price growth has outpaced income growth by a significant margin over the past 18 months and, as a result, housing affordability is already less favourable than before the pandemic struck. “However, the outlook remains extremely uncertain. The strength of the market surprised in 2021 and could do so again in the year ahead. The market still has significant momentum and shifts in housing preferences as a result of the pandemic could continue to support activity and price growth. Indeed, the Omicron variant could serve to reinforce the shift in preferences in the near term.

Posted by hpc pollster @ 12:48 PM 1 Comments

Good news for savers – bad news for borrowers

B.O.E Rise Rates to 0.25% from 0.10%

The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) sets monetary policy to meet the 2% inflation target, and in a way that helps to sustain growth and employment. At its meeting ending on 15 December 2021, the MPC voted by a majority of 8-1 to increase Bank Rate by 0.15 percentage points, to 0.25%.

Posted by Data Dave @ 03:05 PM 0 Comments

Pay ‘Rises’: Anything less than an inflation linked increase – is a Pay Cut!

Latest Inflation Data from ONS - RPI is 7.7%!

If you have been given a sub inflation rate pay rise at work, it is infact a pay cut, as your purchasing power will be diminishing.

Posted by Data Dave @ 12:24 PM 0 Comments

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Real House Prices

Nationwide real uk house prices Q3 21 graph

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UK House Prices Graph

The UK average house price is now £270,708. 

  • As of November 2021 the UK Average House Price is £270,708.
  • The House Price Index [HPI] now currently stands at 142.
  • Property prices have risen by 10.0% when compared to the same month last year and have increased 1.20% when compared to the previous month.

Source: Land Registry

uk average house prices property prices national

UK House Price Index

Source website Period covered Average house price Monthly change (%) Annual change (%) Official releases
LSL Property Services & Acadametrics (England and Wales) Apr 21 £341,462   0.70   11.7 April 2021 (PDF)
Halifax House Price Index Dec 21 £276,091   1.10   9.80 Dec 2021
Office for National Statistics [O.N.S] Nov 21 £271,000   1.20   10.0 Nov 2021
Zoopla / Hometrack Nov 21 £240,800   1.00   7.10 Nov 2021
HM Land Registry UK HPI Nov 21 £270,708   1.20   10.0 Nov 2021
Nationwide House Price Index Dec 21 £254,822   1.00   10.4 Dec 2021
Rightmove ‘Asking’ Price Index Jan 21 £341,019   0.30   7.60 Jan 2021

 

House Price Index - Greater London

Source website Period covered Average
house price
Monthly
change (%)
Quarterly
change (%)
Annual change
(%)
Archive /Graph Peak average
house price
Change since
peak (%)
Official releases
HM Land Registry UK HPI Sept 21 £494,673 2.00 N/A 2.20 Tick £530,409
(Jan 16)
6.70 July 2021
Nationwide House Price Index Q1 21 £482,576 N/A 4.8 6.20 Cross Current Quarter (Q1 2021) March 21
Rightmove ‘Asking’ Price Index Sept 21 £638,285 0.40 N/A 0.80 Tick Sept 2021

House Price Predictions

If you have discovered other or revised predictions that you’d like added to this list then send an email to us with all the information for each column and also a link to a website that contains the information so that we can verify the data.

This table is now sorted by the date that the prediction was made.

Source website Analyst Photo Date prediction made Amount predicted Region Time Period Evidence Notes
www.cebr.com C.E.B.R Photo of David Orr 2020   13.8% UK 2021 Tick
”CEBR predicts that average house prices will be 13.8% lower in 2021 than in 2020.”

 

uk house price prediction

The outlook at the start of 2021 in terms of restrictions imposed by Covid-19, seems similar to that of March and April of 2020. After further easing of restrictions in 2021 we could therefore see what was experienced after the March lockdown ended in 2020 i.e. a surge in house prices. This was caused primarily by buyers scrambling for more space, both house and garden. 

Flats and maisonettes could stand to make the smallest gains in 2021 whilst larger, detached properties with bigger gardens could again stand to see the most gain.

 

The data also shows that for 10 years average house prices in the UK were above the long term trend line but to date have spent a further 10+ years below it.

 

The data shown in the graph after Q4 2020 has been ‘forecast’ by continuing long term trends and further price rises. It shows UK average property prices could reach £275,000 by the end of 2022, nearly a 15% rise.

UK House Prices to Earnings Ratio

This is calculated by dividing the house price for a region by its earnings. That ratio then serves as an indicator of relative affordability. 

 

A higher ratio indicates on average that it is less affordable for people to purchase a house in their region. On the flip side a lower ratio indicates higher affordability in that region. 

 

Whether something is ‘expensive’ can be very subjective and affordability then plays a key part. Bear in mind, ‘expensive’ to one person might not be expensive to another, so that’s why it’s important to break the earnings ratio down by geographical region. It also highlights regional purchasing power. 

 
uk house price to earnings ratio

The chart shows the average multiple of a person’s non taxed pay that’s required to purchase a property, in that particular region. For instance earning £25,000 per annum where a property costs £150,000 would give an earnings ratio of 6. The UK average is 6.2 as shown on the far right.

 

London has the highest multiple at 10.6 and the lowest region is the North of England at 4.2 closely followed by Scotland at 4.4.

 

By comparison over 20 years, from Q4 2000, this ratio has increased dramatically. This means house prices have risen faster than wages have increased, making property across the UK on average more expensive, relative to what people earn.

Have High UK House Prices Put Buyers Off?

The number of sold properties is down on previous years as shown in the chart but this could be a direct cause of the pandemic. However with interest rates being so low, [the Bank of England base rate is just 0.10%], this means that the cost of servicing a mortgage has actually been downtrending over recent years and is now about bang on the historical average.

uk property sales volume
average house prices for first time buyers

Are First Time Buyers Priced Out?

Of course for first time buyers there is the issue of saving for a deposit. This however isn’t always saved from earnings. Bank of Mum and Dad plays a huge part as 40% of people in 2018-19 received help with a deposit. 

This should actually come as no surprise, being that a 20% deposit is 104% of a first time buyers annual income. 

First time buyers have a below average ‘earnings to property prices ratio’ of 5.2 and  purchase less expensive properties than former owner occupiers. [data for England only]

In short, property has become more expensive relative to earnings over the last 20 years making it harder for people, who need to save for a deposit, to get on the property ladder. Once on the ladder though, the costs of a mortgage are at the historical average mark, meaning property ownership isn’t any more expensive than in previous years. 

This could be taken as a clear indicator that the property market is not overheated.

Home ownership rates are at a 3 year high but still down on 2003 highs of 70.3% meaning there could be room for movement.

Prices increased 7.3% last year but are still down on 2007 highs meaning further growth could be possible plus property prices still remain well below the long term trend.

Interest rates are at a historic low meaning the cost of servicing a mortgage is ‘cheap’ and mortgage approvals are up, which is a good indicator of forward-looking demand. 

 

Give us your thoughts? Can you see further house price growth this year or is a looming house price crash on the horizon?