Latest: House Price Crash News
Wednesday, Jun 16 2021 Add a News Blog Article
HPC in 2026? Fred Harrisson seems to think so and given his track record I wouldn’t write him off too quickly.
'House prices will boom before crashing in 2026': We speak to the man who forecast the last two slumps, but will his 18-year property cycle be right again?
Fred Harrison predicted the '89 and '08 crashes and the recessions which followed. He thinks the next one will be around 2026 and points to historical trend as well as affordability as evidence of this.
Average UK House Prices Now: £261,743
Halifax Latest House Price Data
Annual house price inflation is at its strongest level in nearly 7 years
House Price Growth Hits Double Figures! [First time since Dec 2006]
House Prices up 10.2% - The last time this happened was 12 months before the 2008 crash & recession
December 2006 was the last time house prices experienced double digit growth. They maintained this for several months before crashing in 2008 [along with the economy.] The fall was bigger than the climb however [in percentage terms] with house prices climbing to a peak of +10.8% in Jun 2007 before crashing and 'troughing' out at -15.62% in Feb 2009. House prices remained negative for 18 months from May 2008 to October 2009. www.housepricecrash.co.uk/house-prices-uk/
RICS April Report [stronger demand expected for Scotland, N. Ireland & London in 2021]
RICS House Price Survey
Each month RICS report their 'housing market survey', which according to investment bank Goldman Sachs is ''the best short-term lead indicator of house prices and activity'' here are the key takeaways: Demand growth is increasing outstripping supply - 'House price inflation further accelerates, across the UK' - Rental market also shows lack of supply. They go on to report that sales expectations are expected to be significantly stronger in Scotland, Northern Ireland & London than the national average...
UK Average House Price Data – £250,341
Land Registry HPI Data [Feb 2021]
Headlines for Latest Feb 2021 House Price Data Average UK House Prices £250,341 The annual price change is 8.6% [Feb 2020 - Feb 2021] The monthly price change is 0.0% [flat] [Jan 2021- Feb 2021] The House Price Index Figure now stands at 131.3 https://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/house-prices-uk/
So we have blown the bubble enough?
Major property fund to unlock investors money
A major £2bn UK commercial property fund that has been suspended since December 2019 - locking in investors' money - will resume trading next month. Note this was suspended before COVID
CPI down from 0.9% to 0.7%
[CPI] Inflation Down To Only 0.7% - is DEFLATION close? Bad for House Prices?
Deflation ebbing ever closer, effect on house prices - time to panic? Stagflation is now a real fear for the UK
Real House Prices
Reviews: Stop Getting Ripped Off
UK House Prices Graph
The UK average house price is now £250,772.
- As of April 2021 the UK Average House Price is £250,772.
- The House Price Index [HPI] now currently stands at 131.5.
- Property prices have risen by 8.90% when compared to the same month last year but have fallen 1.9% when compared to the previous month.
Source: Land Registry
UK House Price Index
| Source website | Period covered | Average house price | Monthly change (%) | Annual change (%) | Official releases |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LSL Property Services & Acadametrics (England and Wales) | Apr 21 | £341,462 |  0.70 |
11.7 |
April 2021 (PDF) |
| Halifax House Price Index | May 21 | £261,743 | 1.30 |
9.50 |
May 2021 |
| Office for National Statistics [O.N.S] | Apr 21 | £250,772 |  1.90 |
8.90 |
April 2021 |
| Zoopla / Hometrack – Monthly National Survey | Mar 21 | £227,100 | 0.10 |
4.00 |
April 2021 |
| Land Registry Monthly Report | Apr 21 | £250,772 | 1.90 |
8.90 |
April 2021 |
| Nationwide House Price Index | May 21 | £242,832 | 1.80 |
10.90 |
April 2021 (PDF) |
| Rightmove ‘Asking’ Price Index | May 21 | £333,564 | 1.80 |
6.70 |
May 2021 |
House Price Index - Greater London
| Source website | Period covered | Average house price |
Monthly change (%) |
Quarterly change (%) |
Annual change (%) |
Archive /Graph | Peak average house price |
Change since peak (%) |
Official releases |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Land Registry Monthly Report | Apr 21 | £491,687 | 2.00 |
N/A | 3.30 |
 |
£530,409 (Jan 16) |
7.30 |
Apr 2021 |
| Nationwide House Price Index | Q1 21 | £482,576 | N/A | 4.8 |
6.20 |
 |
Current Quarter (Q1 2021) | March 21 | |
| Rightmove ‘Asking’ Price Index | May 21 | £640,373 | 0.80 |
N/A | N/A | |
£649,864 (May 17) |
3.82 |
Mar 2021 |
House Price Predictions
If you have discovered other or revised predictions that you’d like added to this list then send an email to us with all the information for each column and also a link to a website that contains the information so that we can verify the data.
This table is now sorted by the date that the prediction was made.
| Source website | Analyst | Photo | Date prediction made | Amount predicted | Region | Time Period | Evidence | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| www.cebr.com | C.E.B.R |  |
2020 | 13.8% |
UK | 2021 | |
”CEBR predicts that average house prices will be 13.8% lower in 2021 than in 2020.”
|
The outlook at the start of 2021 in terms of restrictions imposed by Covid-19, seems similar to that of March and April of 2020. After further easing of restrictions in 2021 we could therefore see what was experienced after the March lockdown ended in 2020 i.e. a surge in house prices. This was caused primarily by buyers scrambling for more space, both house and garden.
Flats and maisonettes could stand to make the smallest gains in 2021 whilst larger, detached properties with bigger gardens could again stand to see the most gain.
The data also shows that for 10 years average house prices in the UK were above the long term trend line but to date have spent a further 10+ years below it.
The data shown in the graph after Q4 2020 has been ‘forecast’ by continuing long term trends and further price rises. It shows UK average property prices could reach £275,000 by the end of 2022, nearly a 15% rise.
UK House Prices to Earnings Ratio
This is calculated by dividing the house price for a region by its earnings. That ratio then serves as an indicator of relative affordability.
A higher ratio indicates on average that it is less affordable for people to purchase a house in their region. On the flip side a lower ratio indicates higher affordability in that region.
Whether something is ‘expensive’ can be very subjective and affordability then plays a key part. Bear in mind, ‘expensive’ to one person might not be expensive to another, so that’s why it’s important to break the earnings ratio down by geographical region. It also highlights regional purchasing power.
The chart shows the average multiple of a person’s non taxed pay that’s required to purchase a property, in that particular region. For instance earning £25,000 per annum where a property costs £150,000 would give an earnings ratio of 6. The UK average is 6.2 as shown on the far right.
London has the highest multiple at 10.6 and the lowest region is the North of England at 4.2 closely followed by Scotland at 4.4.
By comparison over 20 years, from Q4 2000, this ratio has increased dramatically. This means house prices have risen faster than wages have increased, making property across the UK on average more expensive, relative to what people earn.
Have High UK House Prices Put Buyers Off?
The number of sold properties is down on previous years as shown in the chart but this could be a direct cause of the pandemic. However with interest rates being so low, [the Bank of England base rate is just 0.10%], this means that the cost of servicing a mortgage has actually been downtrending over recent years and is now about bang on the historical average.
Are First Time Buyers Priced Out?
Of course for first time buyers there is the issue of saving for a deposit. This however isn’t always saved from earnings. Bank of Mum and Dad plays a huge part as 40% of people in 2018-19 received help with a deposit.
This should actually come as no surprise, being that a 20% deposit is 104% of a first time buyers annual income.
First time buyers have a below average ‘earnings to property prices ratio’ of 5.2 and purchase less expensive properties than former owner occupiers. [data for England only]
In short, property has become more expensive relative to earnings over the last 20 years making it harder for people, who need to save for a deposit, to get on the property ladder. Once on the ladder though, the costs of a mortgage are at the historical average mark, meaning property ownership isn’t any more expensive than in previous years.
This could be taken as a clear indicator that the property market is not overheated.
Home ownership rates are at a 3 year high but still down on 2003 highs of 70.3% meaning there could be room for movement.
Prices increased 7.3% last year but are still down on 2007 highs meaning further growth could be possible plus property prices still remain well below the long term trend.
Interest rates are at a historic low meaning the cost of servicing a mortgage is ‘cheap’ and mortgage approvals are up, which is a good indicator of forward-looking demand.
Give us your thoughts? Can you see further house price growth this year or is a looming house price crash on the horizon?
