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Friday, Oct 30 2020 Add a News Blog Article

And here comes the avalanche

Wolf Street: Highly Leveraged Commercial Real Estate Bets that UK Local Authorities Took to Meet Budget Shortfalls Begin to Unravel

For the last two years, KPMG has refused to sign off the accounts of Spelthorne borough council, a tiny local authority on the outskirts of London that has taken on huge amounts of debt to buy more than £1 billion of commercial and residential property, it has been revealed. The council has an annual budget of just £22 million, yet it has amassed more commercial property than just about any other local authority in the UK, all of it debt financed.

Posted by khards @ 08:58 AM 3 Comments

Despite Covid, at the macro level house prices still are rising pretty much everywhere.

Moneyweek: House prices are rising across the globe, not just in the UK

John Stepek points out that even though we are in the midst of a pandemic, low interest rates and a general lack of material shocks (cushioned in no small part due to government action) has meant that first world house prices have remained surprisingly resilient.

Posted by landofconfusion @ 01:14 PM 4 Comments

Office for Budget Responsibility predicts 11% fall by the end of 2021

BBC: First-time buyers: Four ways the property market 'will be tougher'

Without First Time Buyers housing chains will grind to a halt, unless of course the BTL brigade decide to double up their portfolios.

Posted by tenyearstogetmymoneyback @ 08:15 PM 5 Comments

Prices in July 2020 are back at September 2019 levels

LSL Acadata: Wales and South West continue to benefit from lockdown lifestyle reappraisal

Average England and Wales house price has been falling since March. In Reading where I live prices are now down over 8% year on year. However, you wouldn't think so on a skim read of the report. The VIs behind the house price stats are laid bare by the headlines they choose. LSL Acadata series is based on LR data, like the ONS one. Ignore also the results from July, which are based on a pathetic 1,300 reported sales, things only become clear at 2-3 months distance, since that's when most of the data are in. Probably it will have ticked up when the dust has cleared due to stamp duty holiday, but that's a one-off.

Posted by nickb @ 12:40 PM 5 Comments

I thought that's how it works

This is Money: Buy-to-let landlords cheating taxman out of £1.7bn a year, think-tank claims, as they fail to declare rental income

Surely this can't be the first time HMRC have considered this. I guess the furlough money has to come from somewhere and as the comments note it won't be from Amazon or Google.

Posted by crash bandicoot @ 09:06 PM 1 Comments

Foreign buyer current discounts

Property Reporter: Looming 2% surcharge sees foreign buyers move on London stamp duty hotspots

"However, there are two other areas offering better value for foreign buyers at present. In the last year, house prices in the City of London have fallen by £60,868. When combining this reduced cost of investing with the £30,851 stamp duty saving made by buying now, foreign buyers are some £91,720 better off investing in the London property market at present." This article doesn't mention the pound also down about 6% roughly against dollar etc compared with this time last year.

Posted by stillthinking @ 07:21 AM 0 Comments

Overpaid to travel to work to London!

BBC: Londons commuter towns see sharp rise in benefit claims

Overpaid to travel to London for a house to you need to pay for 25 years. Now when the income stops you are stuck

Posted by deepak @ 11:56 AM 4 Comments

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House Price Statistics - UK National

Source website Period covered Average house price Monthly change (%) Annual change (%) Archive / Graph Peak average house price Change since peak (%) Official releases
LSL Property Services & Acadametrics (England and Wales) Jun 18 £303,960 0.20 2.10 Cross£305,654
(May 18)
0.5516/07/2018 (PDF)
Halifax House Price Index Jun 18 £225,654 0.30 1.80 Tick£227,871
(Mar 18)
0.9706/07/2018 (PDF)
Home.co.uk (England and Wales) Jul 18 £310,577 0.10 1.30 Cross N/A N/A 12/07/2018 (PDF)
Hometrack - Monthly National Survey May 18 £217,400 0.00 4.30 Cross N/A N/A 29/06/2018
Land Registry Monthly Report Apr 18 £226,906 1.20 3.90 TickThis monthN/A13/06/2018 (PDF)
Nationwide House Price Index Jun 18 £215,444 0.50 2.00 TickThis monthN/A01/06/2018 (PDF)
Rightmove House Price Index July 18 £309,191 0.10 1.40 Tick£317,281
(May 17)
2.5516/07/2018 (PDF)

House Price Statistics - Greater London

Source website Period covered Average
house price
Monthly
change (%)
Quarterly
change (%)
Annual change
(%)
Archive /Graph Peak average
house price
Change since
peak (%)
Official releases
Land Registry Monthly Report Apr 18 £484,584 2.40 N/A 1.00 Tick£530,409
(Jan 16)
8.6413/06/2018 (PDF)
Nationwide House Price Index Q2 18 £468,845 N/A 2.30 1.90 Cross£478,782
(Q1 17)
2.0801/06/2018 (PDF)
Rightmove House Price Index July 18 £628,458 0.50 N/A 1.70 Tick£649,864
(May 17)
3.2916/07/2018 (PDF)

Archive of old house price surveys

House Price Predictions

If you have discovered other or revised predictions that you'd like added to this list then send an email to us with all the information for each column and also a link to a website that contains the information so that we can verify the data.

This table is now sorted by the date that the prediction was made.

Source website Analyst Photo Date prediction made Amount predicted Region Time Period Evidence Notes
National Housing FederationDavid OrrPhoto of David OrrDec 2013 35%UK2013-2020Tick
House prices will increase by another 35% by 2020, leaving a huge swathe of the population locked out of home ownership for life.

Predictions archive