Latest: House Price Crash News

Wednesday, Aug 12 2020 Add a News Blog Article

Prices in July 2020 are back at September 2019 levels

LSL Acadata: Wales and South West continue to benefit from lockdown lifestyle reappraisal

Average England and Wales house price has been falling since March. In Reading where I live prices are now down over 8% year on year. However, you wouldn't think so on a skim read of the report. The VIs behind the house price stats are laid bare by the headlines they choose. LSL Acadata series is based on LR data, like the ONS one. Ignore also the results from July, which are based on a pathetic 1,300 reported sales, things only become clear at 2-3 months distance, since that's when most of the data are in. Probably it will have ticked up when the dust has cleared due to stamp duty holiday, but that's a one-off.

Posted by nickb @ 12:40 PM 0 Comments

I thought that's how it works

This is Money: Buy-to-let landlords cheating taxman out of £1.7bn a year, think-tank claims, as they fail to declare rental income

Surely this can't be the first time HMRC have considered this. I guess the furlough money has to come from somewhere and as the comments note it won't be from Amazon or Google.

Posted by crash bandicoot @ 09:06 PM 1 Comments

Foreign buyer current discounts

Property Reporter: Looming 2% surcharge sees foreign buyers move on London stamp duty hotspots

"However, there are two other areas offering better value for foreign buyers at present. In the last year, house prices in the City of London have fallen by £60,868. When combining this reduced cost of investing with the £30,851 stamp duty saving made by buying now, foreign buyers are some £91,720 better off investing in the London property market at present." This article doesn't mention the pound also down about 6% roughly against dollar etc compared with this time last year.

Posted by stillthinking @ 07:21 AM 0 Comments

Overpaid to travel to work to London!

BBC: Londons commuter towns see sharp rise in benefit claims

Overpaid to travel to London for a house to you need to pay for 25 years. Now when the income stops you are stuck

Posted by deepak @ 11:56 AM 4 Comments

No job No income got a make money somehow

BBC: Mini house-buying boom leads to highest ever monthly price

The old Government policy of providing money to people via asset appreciation. This has been going on for 20 years plus at least. The first thing I my stats teacher taught me was, if there is not enough transactions, the data is meaningless. So here as well is the transactions are half as usual and and coming from a point of closure. They do not matter. The housing index calculating companies will not tell you that, there is a bank behind them to run this as a business. There is a conflict of interest on the biggest purchase you make in your life and this should be separated.

Posted by deepak @ 03:20 PM 5 Comments

Why dumb pricing happens

CNBC: Jim Cramer: BP is vying for ‘dumbest action of the year’ after stock rallies on earnings

Jim Cramer explains why markets do funny things. With BP as example when the market was good and dividend up its stocks went up 5% pre-pandemic. Post pandemic, profits down, dividend cuts, moving business to non carbon. Stock up 7.5%. Back to housing, the market does not go up always because BoE printing press is on, Free money given to top 1% to buyout the poor. Govt giving helicopter money to keep peace. Its just the plain old stupid punter who over pays for their house (rent or buy). And that leads to others needing to pay more.

Posted by deepak @ 05:39 PM 5 Comments

Inflationist article

Forbes: Reality vs Illusion

"Back then, we were so upset about inflation that we were willing to endure a recession to fight it. Now, we are so resistant to a recession that we are willing to endure much more inflation." and perhaps more pertinently "By the time the 1970s ended, financial assets were cheap, while real assets were expensive. Today, it’s just the opposite."

Posted by stillthinking @ 05:40 AM 4 Comments

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House Price Statistics - UK National

Source website Period covered Average house price Monthly change (%) Annual change (%) Archive / Graph Peak average house price Change since peak (%) Official releases
LSL Property Services & Acadametrics (England and Wales) Jun 18 £303,960 0.20 2.10 Cross£305,654
(May 18)
0.5516/07/2018 (PDF)
Halifax House Price Index Jun 18 £225,654 0.30 1.80 Tick£227,871
(Mar 18)
0.9706/07/2018 (PDF)
Home.co.uk (England and Wales) Jul 18 £310,577 0.10 1.30 Cross N/A N/A 12/07/2018 (PDF)
Hometrack - Monthly National Survey May 18 £217,400 0.00 4.30 Cross N/A N/A 29/06/2018
Land Registry Monthly Report Apr 18 £226,906 1.20 3.90 TickThis monthN/A13/06/2018 (PDF)
Nationwide House Price Index Jun 18 £215,444 0.50 2.00 TickThis monthN/A01/06/2018 (PDF)
Rightmove House Price Index July 18 £309,191 0.10 1.40 Tick£317,281
(May 17)
2.5516/07/2018 (PDF)

House Price Statistics - Greater London

Source website Period covered Average
house price
Monthly
change (%)
Quarterly
change (%)
Annual change
(%)
Archive /Graph Peak average
house price
Change since
peak (%)
Official releases
Land Registry Monthly Report Apr 18 £484,584 2.40 N/A 1.00 Tick£530,409
(Jan 16)
8.6413/06/2018 (PDF)
Nationwide House Price Index Q2 18 £468,845 N/A 2.30 1.90 Cross£478,782
(Q1 17)
2.0801/06/2018 (PDF)
Rightmove House Price Index July 18 £628,458 0.50 N/A 1.70 Tick£649,864
(May 17)
3.2916/07/2018 (PDF)

Archive of old house price surveys

House Price Predictions

If you have discovered other or revised predictions that you'd like added to this list then send an email to us with all the information for each column and also a link to a website that contains the information so that we can verify the data.

This table is now sorted by the date that the prediction was made.

Source website Analyst Photo Date prediction made Amount predicted Region Time Period Evidence Notes
National Housing FederationDavid OrrPhoto of David OrrDec 2013 35%UK2013-2020Tick
House prices will increase by another 35% by 2020, leaving a huge swathe of the population locked out of home ownership for life.

Predictions archive