Tuesday, October 6, 2009

No dollar crash here – move along

Dollar hysteria

The dollar will not crash and send gold to the moon. Five points. 1. The US$ will strengthen in the short term as equities come back to earth. 2.Foreign $ holders are more concerned about QE than they are about deficits, but they have an idea how far QE will go and they are still buying US Treasuries. 3. The main reason the $ will slide is that US consumers will continue to rein in spending and this will attenuate the incentive for foreign central banks and corporations to stockpile dollars or trade exclusively in the currency. 4. Private sector companies are far more important than central banks in the slide away from the $, and they have been slowly veering away from it since 2000. 5. As the $ declines the US will have to curtail its wars and conform to international standards.

Posted by icarus @ 10:16 PM (887 views)
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2 thoughts on “No dollar crash here – move along

  • Nice theory. Gold hit a peak today after the dollar slid against major currencies. Dollar is well down from (say) the beginning of the year vs Swiss franc and Aus Dollar etc. says Reuters.

    Expect the dollar to make a small recovery after ABC news said consumer confidence rose, then resume its decline when property losses hit banks bottom line (apartment vacancies are hitting 20 year highs, hotel foreclosures are tripling in California, Manhattan office vacancies at a 5 year high and so on…). Link Bloomberg property:
    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/industries/real_estate.html

    I’m not writing off the dollar. Its not going to crash overnight like in the Hollywood blockbusters, but its sinking.

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