Tuesday, October 6, 2009
No dollar crash here – move along
The dollar will not crash and send gold to the moon. Five points. 1. The US$ will strengthen in the short term as equities come back to earth. 2.Foreign $ holders are more concerned about QE than they are about deficits, but they have an idea how far QE will go and they are still buying US Treasuries. 3. The main reason the $ will slide is that US consumers will continue to rein in spending and this will attenuate the incentive for foreign central banks and corporations to stockpile dollars or trade exclusively in the currency. 4. Private sector companies are far more important than central banks in the slide away from the $, and they have been slowly veering away from it since 2000. 5. As the $ declines the US will have to curtail its wars and conform to international standards.