Tuesday, June 23, 2009
For what it’s worth
Nationwide House Price Survey (Jun)
"The Nationwide index showed house prices rose in May for the second time in three months, adding to optimism [sic} that the sharp decline of the past 18 months could be starting to level off. Analysts expect prices to have fallen back slightly in June but the annual rate of decline is likely to have moderated".
Posted by crashpad4me @ 12:59 AM (2224 views)
9 thoughts on “For what it’s worth”
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crashpad4me says:
Not sure if this is actually news, seems they are guestimating that Nationwide’s HPI will show a fall of 0.4% for June (-10.8 yoy). Then again…
Zebbedee says:
Yeh and last month (figures from forexfactory) they were predicting -0.9 and we had up 1.2. The volumes are so small that when jeff and julie buy a place for £145k we find that seasoned it turns out there was a -3% change
little professor says:
It’s just forecasting that the Nationwide figures, which are out some time this week, will show a fall. Not really news, tbh.
I think we may yet have another sneaky rise
Btlers-r-2hats says:
…..borrowers were under water, while Northern Rock and Bradford & Bingley are among the lenders with the highest number of borrowers in this position.
I realy hope the vast majority of nequities are BTL. Remind me again, what was B&Bs speciality?
sybil13 says:
DOESN’T IT SHOW THEY WENT DOWN?
MINUS 10.8
TO
MINUS 11.3
crashpad4me says:
Sybil @ 3. I think it’s the other way round. Minus 10.8 is the forecast figure.
george monsoon says:
Forgive me for being blatantly honest, but doesn’t all this recent positive spin on houseprices, stink of government preparation for a general election. Lets face it, public opinion of the government won’t change unless they can engineer a “miracle” recovery in the market. A good indicator of this would be if the government backs up the VI’s publicly by anouncing that housing is recovering… this would be the biggest giveaway.
mark wadsworth says:
That’s the problem when you are so cynical (as I am) to assume that politicians NEVER achieve what they promise*.
They have been battling for two-and-half-years to stave off or at least slow down the inevitable collapse and I never thought it would work – so it has taken me slightly by surprise that all the £billions they have pumped in, the artificially low interest rates etc, combined with Spring Bounce have actually helped to flatten off the HPC for the time being. But it will start again in August or September, fret ye not. After the next GE, we’ll be back to normal.
* The Tories also finally left the EPP a couple of days ago, and formed their own little grouping, which, take it from me, is incredibly difficult, so fair play to them.
51ck-6-51x says:
sybil – One cannot conclude a MoM direction from two YoY figures for different periods without more information (specifically the change between the start of the two periods).
So even a YoY to May of -10.8% and a YoY to June of -11.3% could imply an intermediate MoM increase if the MoM to June last year were >= +0.564% ( 3 s.f. )
— explanation —
If you think in rates
i.e YoY to May = 0.892, and YoY to June = 0.887
then the rate required between May ’08 and June ’08 to give no change between May ’09 and June ’09 is
0.892 / 0.887
Now reverting that to a percentage gives
100 * ( 0.892 / 0.887 – 1 )
= 0.564% ( 3 s.f. )
If the MoM to Jun 08 was less than this the numbers imply a decrease, else an increase.
— end explanation —