Monday, July 7, 2008

David Smith finally gets it!

Remember building societies? Net lending by them dropped 90 per cent in May

"There comes a point when you just have to stand back in amazement. Last week, I reported that the banks had provided fewer than 28,000 new mortgages in May, 56% down on a year earlier. What was not clear then was that this was in the context of the banks themselves gaining market share. Full figures for new mortgages in May, courtesy of the Bank of England, showed an even bigger drop, 64%, to just 42,000 from all lenders. Getting a mortgage these days is becoming almost as rare as winning the lottery. These figures are worth setting in context. They are a third of the monthly number of mortgage approvals we saw in November 2006, when 129,000 were granted. So how low can they go? Will it be 30,000, 20,000 or none at all?"

Posted by drewster @ 12:37 PM (1997 views)
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36 thoughts on “David Smith finally gets it!

  • Rental John says:

    Bbbbbbut the fundamentals are strong……

    No funds=no buyers=no sellers=no house sales……no market……CuuuuuuuuRASH!

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  • I think most regular users of this site probably aren’t entirely surprised by the figures we are seeing this year. I mean they’re both surprising and shocking but nevertheless I think users here recognised that the bubble had been inflated to such an enormous degree that when it burst it was going to be an economic version of Krakatoa. The thing I find most surprising is how many people DIDN’T realise what was coming.

    Anyone care to guess what the end of year figures are going to be like? Buying houses is going to be out of vogue for a very very long time!

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  • are these figures including remortgages?

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  • mark wadsworth says:

    “how low will they go?”

    Presumably negative.

    Or at least, new lending will be far far less than normal repayments and redemptions.

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  • Was speaking to some people today buying property in Cyprus. Incredibly they are still in stubborn denial.

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  • P4C,

    The tone of your comments is getting a bit disturbing. It’s almost as if you want to see a ‘white flag event’ and you have a vested interest in talking up gold (you have bought some if I remember correctly).

    Let’s try this one for size: global consciousness has not appreciably changed today and we are seeing the signs of an urgently required correction to our economy. A recession will hurt but putting it off isn’t going to make things better either.

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  • Would be interesting to know how much of the fall in mortages approvals is due to poor availability and how much is simply due to low demand because putative purchasers are staying away from the market.

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  • Lies, damn lies, statistics and now…. wikipedia and youtube, brilliant.

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  • p4ac – Before you incite anything you are going to need spellcheck, or else all hell could break loose.

    You might start enticing people!!

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  • holding out says:

    P4AC – You have a job – It is paid for out of the taxes of everybody else – you could at least do them the courtesy of occasionally doing something rather than spending your entire time talking [email protected]

    Personally I blame all the world’s woes in the hands of planners i.e. You.

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  • I’m inclined to agree, nooneno.

    Prophecies of doom are easily forgotten when the world doesn’t end. I wouldn’t say that P4C and malct are dangerous – there have been quite a few tinfoilhat wearers on this site (lvmreader will come on later – he’s a professional prophecizer), and everyone just gets on when their stuff doesn’t happen.

    Mayan calendar? The Mayans were not a race of scientists – just god-fearing savages. Kondratieff cycles? You know why no-one’s ever heard of Kondratieff?

    (Kirstie did promise to eat her hat though … mumble …)

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  • @nooneo – Your ignorance is only eclipsed by your arrogance, and I can say that because I have read a LOT, with an OPEN mind, and the truth is somewhere closer to what P4aC talks about than your ‘fulffy world view’ imo. You’re the disinfo artist no?

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  • buctootim,

    Regarding whether it’s poor availability or low demand, anecdotally it appears to be the former. There are tales of couples turning up at banks and estate agents assuming they could still get a 100% mortgage. The idea that prices only ever rise is ingrained deeply in the national psyche. Relatively few people believe this is “the big one” – they see this as a soft landing, a mild correction. It’s only the financial experts – and us – who can see the fundamental factors behind this crash. A layman said to me this weekend “I can’t wait til this whole credit crunch nonsense is over”. I didn’t have the heart to tell him; and I don’t think he would have listened.

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  • letthemfall says:

    nooneo:

    I prophesy that posts will vigorously contradict you, that you do not have an open mind – oh, too late.

    On the article, I note that good old David Smith still thinks that the recent wholesale money market, swaying on a pile of CDOs, was the norm rather than an unusual credit spree. I prophesy that he will continue to say this.

    (Available for crystal ball gazing, tea leaf consultations, etc. Please send money first).

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  • george monsoon says:

    hello everyone, I want houseprices to crash so I can buy a house.. anyone else in here concerned about the same?

    lol..

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  • Layers…
    I haven’t a “fluffy world view” as you say but I do have a built in bullsh1t-o-meter and quite frankly I dont come to this place to hear the sad and delusional views of people who rely on a calander drawn up hundred of years ago , by a race of people that disintegrated, to predict any world event/outcome (if their calander was so good at prediction then where is the mayan civilisation now!).

    You see I don’t believe in god, fate, luck, i ching, tarot, psychics or any other man made vehicles for prediction or otherwise. I don’t believe you can predict anything, they are just figments of imaginations. That’s not to say lots of nasty things aren’t hapenning, and that goverments/organisations/businesses are not heavily involved in maniplulating the world to their own ends. My point is it’s just not forseable in the way these people think it is.

    And by the way, just because you “read a lot” doesn’t mean diddly, I too have “read a lot” the only difference is what you read, how you interpret it. Some people appear to be great prophets when what they phrophesise appear to come true, but when you realise they have been phrophesising about everything and anything then you realise, heck they just got lucky!

    Don’t foget that (it may take a few billion years – when our sun dies, maybe earlier I certainly don’t know) one day the Johavahs will be right, the end of the world will come and if theykeep teling people sooner or later they are going to be spot on when they say “The end of the world is nigh, see we told you so!”

    Lies, dam lies, statistics…. and wikipedia and youtube

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  • George,

    I posted this article, and to be fair it is directly relevant to house prices! Just ignore the conspiracy theorists and hopefully they’ll go away.

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  • I too, have an open mind, so open in fact that I let ideas and thoughts in, and when I decide that they are rubbish my open mind lets them out again so that some other idiot can have them.

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  • nopensionnohouse says:

    Sigh, Where is my tin foil hat?

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  • george monsoon @ 02:17pm – ME TOO. I didn’t think I’d have to buy a Mayan calendar first though, thought my WH Smith one would suffice. Can’t find out where to get some consciousness either, can get UNconsciousness in bucketloads from the local hostelry though.
    Although I sort of saw the HPC coming I hadn’t realised that it would also be surrounded by other financial baggage that could cause ordinary people a lot of misery. It seems that I may eventully have to tread on someone (a family?) to get a good bargain. Then I can look as smug as those that got on the ladder a few years ago and looked down their collective noses at me ……… doesn’t feel quite right somehow. I just want an affordable house without the ‘didn’t I do well etc etc etc’.

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  • P4aC,

    I just don’t care it’s irrelevent. Now wheres my i ching sticks….

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  • Life's Short says:

    I’ve been visiting this site for about two years. And I’ve just got to pipe in that there are users here who are sounding more extreme by the day. To be honest, as more of a browser than a poster, some of the content is starting to sound unhealthy. Maybe the extreme blinged-up-uber-bear in a bunker aiming guns at the goverment spy/neighbour view will turn out right,maybe not.

    The thing that getting boring I feel personally that it just getting way too off topic much too often in these pages.

    Now if someone can just follow this post with yet another post about gold prices heading for $100,000,000,000,000……..

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  • nopensionnohouse says:

    P4AC – Let it go mate. This is a HPC site!!!! I’ll talk to you about it some where else!!!!

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  • renting2.
    Nice comment, compassion can be seriously lacking on here.

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  • Oh there you are P4ac. I thought you had crawled off to hide under your stone after the 6th July non-event of the century. Any right thinking person would have been too embarrassed to stick his head above the parapet after being shown up to be such a plonker by all these failed predictions…. but there again!.

    ….. ”many more injured, nations damaged, on a false flag event, IRRELEVANT?!”

    That’s precisely it mate – totally, completely and utterly irrelevant to Housepricecrash, or any remotely associated topics. Please will you now go away and stick to the many sites where you will find like minded people who appreciate your drivel.

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  • @Renting2,
    I also didn’t think through all the consequences…I knew there would be a trigger to turn the herd but didn’t think about what elese that trigger might do…job security? dooh!! Also I’m very uncomfortable about the effect on friends and family; it was nice to imagine being smug in the face off arrogance; the worry for loved ones takes the shine off to be honest.

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  • planning4acrash says:

    Touchei! : )

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  • @nooneo – 27. Thanks for your honesty in that you “just don’t care”!!! So no matter what, you couldn’t give a damn. And that’s your choice which I respect. BTW I give prophesy a very wide birth too, but that doesn’t mean there aren’t nuggets of info cloaked in cr*p, and it’s this type of debate which is useful on this site.
    Note, I’m not insulting anyone else here as your choice is your choice, but you should question why you, p. doff et al., can’t let it go either and respect others’ views. And just because you can’t, wont or are incapable of seeing the relevance to HPC, don’t assume there isn’t a connection!
    Absence of proof isn’t proof of absence – or is that too deep for ya’s all 😉

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  • planning4acrash…

    Get real matey, no-one thinks any of the events you churn out are irelevant it’s just your (and others) take on them! You seem to think that absolutely everything is connected! All this 2if a butterfly flaps it’s wings… a man in catford falls outta bed”. brilliant stuff.

    ‘Are you brain dead’ = That’s coming from someone who can’t work out what genocide means – your just off your rocka mate – We all know the USA’s not the best regime in the world, not tricky that one.

    I for one can’t wait for the New World Order what did Mr Townsend tell us in 1971 “Meet the new boss, same as the old boss” – You see when he was writing “won’t get fooled again” it’s a 2 way street, don’t trust the bosses, don’t trust the people telling you what to think about the bosses – make up your own mind, simple enough for even your paranoid, delusional mind can absorb!

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  • A few of us are discussing house price falls on the SKY NEWS thread above this one !

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  • Have to admit I am a little worried by the absence of s2r1. He’s not showed any shame yet, so it can’t be being wrong about the 6th July and $1,500/oz end-June gold that’s keeping him away… could it be… a CONSPIRACY? Dun-dun-durrrr!

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  • it_is_going_with_a_bang says:

    Oh please. Toys back in the prams please.
    P4aC you do take things just a little too far. Whilst you may hold strong beliefs – of that nobody can doubt – the issue really is where is the “direct” relevance to HPC? That’s all.

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  • Ok, it”s getting late, will someone please exlain the relevenced of the vietnam war and UK house price inflation/deflation…..

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  • planning4acrash says:

    Government stage false flag events, Gulf of Tonkin that led to Vietnam War is a documented white flag event. It WAS STAGED BY GOVERNMENT, proven.

    The next white flag event can be predicted to co-incide with the new president because the public are totally anti-war and govt need to fear public to get behind all of the wars. A new event would lead to Iran war. Iran war this Christmas will destroy the economy. House prices will crash completely in that scenario. Gold and oil will double, quadruple.

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  • planning4acrash says:

    Oh, and there may be a military draft.

    So, now do you care about the MILLIONS of CHILDREN that will DIE? Do you now see it as relevant to your STUPID PATHETIC excuse for a SELFISH life?

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