Friday, January 4, 2008

House prices DROP 0.1% in the 4Q sequentially

House price growth takes a dip

Despite the positive spin by the media (i.e. that prices in 4Q 2007 are 6.9% up versus previous year). "...the average UK house price having fallen to £183,959 from £184,131" yes, that is a 0.1% DROP not a "growth slow down". Let us be prepared to read about "negative growth", "negative EA business expansions", and "negative increase in mortgage lending" in the next few months

Posted by confused76 @ 11:39 AM (1080 views)
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11 thoughts on “House prices DROP 0.1% in the 4Q sequentially

  • “In terms of house price growth, prices in the South are increasing at an annual rate of 9%”

    Surely she means that prices in the South have grown at 9% over the last year?

    and as any fule kno, the past performance of an investment is no guarantee of future returns.

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  • Steady on, confused76. The comments on this site are worth reading because of the general absence of intemperate ad hominem attacks you read so often elsewhere. Fionnuala looks OK to me – see

    http://www.nationwide.co.uk/mediacentre/economist.asp

    But as the Chief Economist of a building society she does have a clear financial incentive to talk the market up as much as possible. She is hardly going to come out and say, “The market is going to drop 15% in 2008, and anyone who buys a house this year wants their head looking”, even if she privately believes it, becuase it will damage her employer’s mortgage business. Anyone who invests in the property market on the basis of information from a source with such a clear conflict of interests deserves to end up poor anyway.

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  • In any event, it will still take time before any substantial drops kick in. So, for the moment, it still is too close to call.

    These estate agents are a determined bunch, and there still is widespread belief that buying a house is a wise finantial decision.

    Could this be the quiet before the storm?

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  • She’d get my deposit ! Boom Boom ! :o)

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  • monty – you have poor taste mate – I wouldn’t touch it with your bargepole, so I guess that makes me discerning enough for the both of us.

    I like the third picture where she seems to be explaining a complex economist fact to someone… “No you bldy moron!!! I’ve told you three times already!! House prices only ever go up!!”

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  • @ hpwatcher. It always amuses me how estate agents “give” professional advice. At what professional body do they have to do an exam for to be qualified as an Estate Agent. In other areas, to be permitted to describe an “investment” as attractive, you need to have done exams. Any used car dealer will tell you how good the stock is: “stand on me guv, this one is a goodun’. At least these people had to take the risk and buy the car in the first place before selling it!!

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  • i am not withdrawing my “ad mulierem” attack. when an economist resorts to using spin falls from the human race to the level of davidsmith.
    she should refuse to sign press releases hinting that london prices have increased by 95 pounds a day in the 4th quarter. her English was incorrect and ambigous at the very best. As a matter of fact prices dropped in the 4th quarter.

    she is ugly (in moral terms) and i’d prefer a night out with one of (or both) the two gents in the picture below
    http://www.nyu.edu/public.affairs/images/photos/uploads/greenspan_brown.jpg

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  • george monsoon says:

    lovely to see some much needed fresh air flowing though the blog, with you lot arguing about the asthetic appeal of our arch enemies.

    anyway, i think she is not bad, but I’d need a good few pints…!

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  • Sorry for the repeat, I posted this elsewhere but it’s pretty pertinent…

    like someone else said – she (FiFi) is going to find it hard to explain to her bosses any statement that says “hold on to your cash and wait for the market to drop”. Sad, since this is the best advice you can give YOUR customer buying an asset using your mortgage. Of course, they don’t really care too much since they’ve increased conditions and reduced max equity they’ll loan on. So if the punter loses his share of the equity, so what. The mortgage industry will have at least secured THEIR position – that is of course unless there is a crash of values. Something therefore the Nationwide are NEVER going to admit to since it would mean customers might be able to sue. “If you KNEW the market was crashing, how can you lend me the money on an asset that will knowingly LOSE me money”

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  • Confused76… I salute you!

    It’s refreshing to know that there are at least some guys out there who judge a woman by her moral courage rather than looks. 🙂

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