Saturday, August 11, 2007

Oh, the beauty of hindsight

In retrospect the crisis was inevitable

The definition of an Economist - someone who doesn't have a clue what is going to happen but is very good at giving reasons why it happened after the event. Q. What's the difference between an economist and an old guy with Alzheimer's? A. The economist is the one with the calculator.

Posted by onyerhike @ 09:10 AM (505 views)
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5 thoughts on “Oh, the beauty of hindsight

  • japanese uncle says:

    Economists really proved this time round, to be just professional liars hired to serve the interests of big financial/industrial bosses who benefit the greatest in the economic upheaval, all at the cost of the ignorant millions including the middle managers of banks and firms. And they are still saying that there is no crash in the UK housing market. To be ignorant is OK , as the majority of people after all, cannot afford time to study indepth, besides their limited power of thinking. Then don’t risk your hard-earned cash in a reckless gamble including the Buy to Let enterprise! unless you are perfectly aware what is going on, to say nothing of the real ones in betting shops and casinoes as frantically promoted by NUkeLABOR. Don’t be tempted by the sweet talk of the devils’ that operates behind our government! They just want you to gamble and lose. Be a content man given what is bestowed upon you. Be content with a car even if your neighbor has two. Be content with a just bicycle even if your neighbour has a car. Be content with 37 inch TV even if your neighbour has 42 inch one. Be content with council swimming pools even if you neighbor visits expensive exclusive spa. And save each year even the modest amount for a rainy day in the safest banks who are legally obligated to allow you to withdraw your money. This is definitely the attitude to decelerate economic growth, far reducing the profit of the greedy, but the best fit for a sustainable economy/world.

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  • japanese uncle says:

    Just to add one point. They (economists and financial experts) must be thinking now what they are going to say after the HPC, eg. “Looking back from now housing market was doomed and the HPC was something totally inevitable and predictable”

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  • Bubbles. . . says:

    Dont worry….Our Gordy has appeared after solving the floods, the foot and mouth, and iraqi war crisis and we believe a blockage in the toilet at number 10 but this has not been officially reported yet!
    He states his economy is strong and if the twin defecits bother you tune in to one of his speeches and nod off to sleep ALL WILL BE WELL.
    So go to sleep children and dont worry your pretty little heads about economic facts I have paid no attention to them for the past 10 years and look where it got me!

    A suggested song paraphrasing From Gilbert & Sullivan “so take my advice, dont listen to the facts,then you’ll be the leader of the Queens Govy!”
    The Queens govy, the queens govy, then you’ll be the leader of the Queens govy!!!

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  • planning4acrash says:

    By packaging stuff up in CDO’s, nobody, except the economists who oversee it and most of them even, cannot see the whole picture, its a massive experiment in passing the hot potato. King warned about a year ago about CDO’s and this bank intervention suggests that they knew about and were planning for the implosion, because it takes planning to release a trillion. Governments must have decided that the bubble could not be brought down by intervention or that intervention would be too costly, as China will soon discover with its exchange rate controls, so decided to let it run its course and pump in cash during the fall to manage the downfall. I think there’s also a degree of who sneezes first in this case also, no one country wants to be a scape goat or take the brunt financially. Quote ‘orderly’ behaviour, i.e. orderly re-assessment of risk is what the ECB said when they released the money. The cash injection was NOT to avoid a crash, it was to MANAGE a crash, with banks around the world acting as a syndicate, with synchronsied action to ensure that they all worked together and shared the burden. That’s my theory anyway.

    By the way, EU growth is faltering and UK growth is at around 3% and we just went into an oil surpless. Even if we loose growth, we could run this one with a HPC and without a recession, leaving us in a position like we were in the .com crash, where we leapfrogged other countries by not having as bad a time as them. We could see a repeat of this. So long as our growth is bigger than theirs, Brown emerges unscathed. If people consider that Europe and UK were held to ransom by US financial ideas, then this could be what is needed to truly shift banking from New York to UK and Europe. Maybe that’s why US companies keep trying to take over European financial institutions like the LSE?

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  • This was predicted by me in 2004. I told the former President of Paloma Partners that this would happen.

    I told JP Morgan risk manangement in Jan 2006 that this would happen and they could get caught not knowing where their positions were.

    I told analysts at Goldman Sachs, UBS, Morgan Stanley and most of the big banks.

    I was ignored.

    But now I am vindicated.

    It feels almost as good as dinner at Wagamama followed accompanied by Saki and a nice Kirin beer.

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