Jadoube Posted November 17, 2008 Share Posted November 17, 2008 The thing is, if you stick out at a high price, that's precisely what you will get. It's a buyers market, and the savvy buyer will be scouting and know full well how long a property has been on the market and that it's not selling. The polite type who wouldn't dream of aggressively going in and putting in a low offer will be sitting back quietly watching and waiting, perhaps for a 10% or 20% fall or a bargain but would never dream of putting an offer in 20% under the price asked. The ones who will put in low offers are the assertive, aggressive, not so polite types, who'll put pressure on and try and push the price down as low as possible.If the seller had put a realistic fixed price on, perhaps the polite person who's waiting for a cheaper would have bitten at that, but they weren't given a chance. I agree. A question of semantics I think. Aggressive pricing fine, aggressive behaviour/language/body language not so fine. I'd describe assertive as when you put in a low offer and firmly, calmly, and politely explain why its that way. Aggressive crosses the line to when the vendor feels badgered/threatened /under attack. If so its less likely a sale will result. More likely they will ask the agent to keep you safely away from them. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ccc Posted November 17, 2008 Share Posted November 17, 2008 Remember you have only heard one side of the story. Maybe the bloke was being reasonable and she took his straight to the point attitude as 'aggression'. Maybe the bloke is, quite rightly, getting peed off with sellers wasting his time by being in denial about what is going on ? Who knows. Two sides to every story though !! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest An Bearin Bui Posted November 17, 2008 Share Posted November 17, 2008 I am not sure what it is. Definitely denial but I actually think many reckon they can actually follow that plan !!Once these people wake up to reality the turd has officially hit the fan. I think there are a lot of hosues/flats being taken of the market just now in readiness for next Spring. I think we will see numbers shooting up just like last year. Only difference being I think we will see more than just one or two willing to take a serious hit. That's where I just hit a wall of incomprehension too, the old 'I'll rent it out instead' idea. If everyone 'just rents it out instead' what's going to happen to supply in Spring 2009, or Spring 2010 or 2011 when the market does magically return to 'normal'? Oh right - everyone else just 'rented it out instead' too so now there is 2,3 or 4 years worth of supply all on the market at the same time. Meanwhile demand is just normal or even below par... It's truly amazing how stupid people are. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Muswell Hillbilly Posted November 17, 2008 Share Posted November 17, 2008 What will it take ?2 failed 'spring bounces' in a row. Sorry to rain on your parade a bit, but it will only actually be one failed spring bounce. Remember that, much to the surprise and irritation of everyone on here, the 2008 spring bounce was actually quite pronounced, with the average price going from 210K to nearly 234K, or 11% up, from Q1 to Q2, after three quarters of falls. Although I can’t imagine a bounce like that in 2009, I really wouldn’t be surprised if Edinburgh prices did increase a little in Q2. I think it must be something to do with coming out of the Scottish winter making people euphoric after the months of darkness. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
guitarman001 Posted November 18, 2008 Share Posted November 18, 2008 There might be 'for sale' signs everywhere, but prices are still sky-high in Edinburgh and the Lothians. Very dissapointing. I want to see flats for £40k and proper houses for £100k+ damn it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ccc Posted November 18, 2008 Share Posted November 18, 2008 Sorry to rain on your parade a bit, but it will only actually be one failed spring bounce. Remember that, much to the surprise and irritation of everyone on here, the 2008 spring bounce was actually quite pronounced, with the average price going from 210K to nearly 234K, or 11% up, from Q1 to Q2, after three quarters of falls. Although I can’t imagine a bounce like that in 2009, I really wouldn’t be surprised if Edinburgh prices did increase a little in Q2. I think it must be something to do with coming out of the Scottish winter making people euphoric after the months of darkness. Yes but that was a blip due to a massive drop in sales volume. Even the ESPC admitted so !! Although for the average punter it probably did seem like a bounce. In fact come to think of it the average punter knows very little about the market. Enough stories on the TV and in the papers about house prices falling and that is enough. The details are irrelevant for these people. Hence why 'I'll just rent it out instead' is booming. People just don't add up the sums !! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jadoube Posted November 18, 2008 Share Posted November 18, 2008 There might be 'for sale' signs everywhere, but prices are still sky-high in Edinburgh and the Lothians. Very dissapointing. I want to see flats for £40k and proper houses for £100k+ damn it. At work we're doing some data analysis to generate maps of high risk areas for house prices. The hypothesis is that, while an individual buyer only needs one distressed seller, sporadic cases might not bring prices down across a greographic area, that is more likely to come from areas where there are high concentrations of potential problems. The analysis combines a number of factors, including areas where a high proportion of all houses are mortgaged with high LTV's. (This is using loan to current value, although most recent price drops are probably not fully taken into account.) Initial maps suggest greater concentrations of high LTV's in (parts of) Tranent, Bathgate, East Dunfermline, and to a slightly lesser extent Livingstone and Crammond. There are indications of some local hot spots within the city but that needs more work. They are less clearly delineated. More towards Leith Walk is all I can recall from the maps at the minute. (Its UK wide analysis, one of the maps I saw just happened to be Lothians.) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deleriad Posted November 18, 2008 Share Posted November 18, 2008 At work we're doing some data analysis to generate maps of high risk areas for house prices. Interesting project. Role of the Internet could be important however. As more buyers have access to non-geographically based information you may well see correlations between types of houses with high LTVs that tend to show up 'near' each other in web searches. Possibly still a minor factor but you may find some net-based hot spots. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
geneer Posted November 18, 2008 Share Posted November 18, 2008 (edited) Cant wait to see the quarterly breakdowns. The last one showed the average YOY change of -1.2% was meaningless. http://www.espc.co.uk/EspcPageMedia/Proper...rts/2008-Q3.pdf Take out the £500,000 townhouses (+20%YOY), and the whole f*cking town was tanking. Edited November 18, 2008 by geneer Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bjørn Posted November 18, 2008 Share Posted November 18, 2008 Latest figures released today by ESPC reveal that the average house price in Edinburgh now stands at £192,225 following a 11.4% year-on-year fall in October. The results marked the third consecutive month in which an annual fall was observed, with the rate of decrease up from 7.1% in September. A YoY of 11.4% wouldn't be remarkable if it was 12 consecutive months of MoM decline, but three months?!! What the hell is the YoY figure going to look like in 9 months time when the pre-peak data has fallen out of the year's figures? That's before we even begin to see the effects of job losses kicking in and before we start seeing the really significant numbers of repos of silly numbers of BTL stuff. By this time in 2010 I think we are going to see some realistic prices on the Edinburgh property market. I'm looking forward to it. For a year or two, possibly much much more, therafter there will be a period of stable prices and the market won't be limited, as now, to only having properties being offered as a result of the 3 Ds (Debt; Divorce; Death). It'll be a healthy market, a sensible market, the like of which we haven't seen for well over three decades. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
guitarman001 Posted November 19, 2008 Share Posted November 19, 2008 Dear god, how can they still be arguiing with you in the comments section!? Those idiots!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Muswell Hillbilly Posted November 19, 2008 Share Posted November 19, 2008 There is one flat in particular that I like to keep a check on for comedic value:66 Montpelier Park It has a 'new' band across as though it just went up this week - in fact it's been on the market since May of this year and they haven't dropped the fantasy price tag of 335k at all. I don’t know why some properties on the ESPC web site suddenly appear with ‘new’ on them, when they have clearly been on sale non-stop for six months. Another similar one is this: 17 Arden Street Kitchen squashed into boxroom, en-suite squashed into utility room, and they want £368,500 for it! A very similar conversion near me went for £290,000 back in the spring. This latter was originally advertised for OO 298, but the vendor wisely cut his losses and accepted a lower offer. (It had been bought for 250, converted and flipped.) The Arden Street one was originally advertised for OO 295 (in late May), but rather than accepting any offer that may possibly have been made since then, the vendor insists on the fantasy price. More fool him/her. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
guitarman001 Posted November 20, 2008 Share Posted November 20, 2008 WTF!!!!!! I'd pay £50k tops for that. Outrageous! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TTD Posted November 24, 2008 Share Posted November 24, 2008 From p.2 of this thread; "It (a new ESPC prop) has a 'new' band across as though it just went up this week - in fact it's been on the market since May of this year" Standard practice for the ESPC to tag as 'new' those properties which have been on the market for 6 or 12 months, when all that's happening is the punter stumping up another £200 or so for another 6 months on the site. For ease of reference, anything currently tagged as 'new' with a ref no in the region of 272nnn is genuinely new, anything around 263nnn, 264nnn is a 6-month renewal. Lower numbers indicate 12 month renewal. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TTD Posted November 24, 2008 Share Posted November 24, 2008 (edited) Again from page 2, the story of the lone female viewing the house "She looked desolate when I told her we intended to rent while waiting for prices to plummet. It was in the eyes, I could see her shrink inside. Apparantly the previous week she had some bloke trying to push/bully her into accepting a really low price. Financially realistic perhaps, but clearly she'd felt threatened. " Where was her selling agent in all of this? What are they paying him or her for, if not to (1) handle the viewings, and (2) insulate the lone female from predatory investors/speculators/developers???? Edited November 24, 2008 by TTD Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ccc Posted November 24, 2008 Share Posted November 24, 2008 From p.2 of this thread; "It (a new ESPC prop) has a 'new' band across as though it just went up this week - in fact it's been on the market since May of this year"Standard practice for the ESPC to tag as 'new' those properties which have been on the market for 6 or 12 months, when all that's happening is the punter stumping up another £200 or so for another 6 months on the site. For ease of reference, anything currently tagged as 'new' with a ref no in the region of 272nnn is genuinely new, anything around 263nnn, 264nnn is a 6-month renewal. Lower numbers indicate 12 month renewal. Cheers for that. Interesting info. I think a lot of houses have been taken off the market in readiness for next years wonderful bounce. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Muswell Hillbilly Posted November 24, 2008 Share Posted November 24, 2008 For ease of reference, anything currently tagged as 'new' with a ref no in the region of 272nnn is genuinely new, anything around 263nnn, 264nnn is a 6-month renewal. Lower numbers indicate 12 month renewal. I’d noticed that we’re now in the 270s, so anything remaining with a reference number in the 260s is old, and there are even one or two still around in the high 250s. Do properties automatically get taken off the ESPC if unsold after six months? If so, that could certainly explain why one that I’m watching has disappeared, even though the ‘for sale’ sign is still up. Sellers are still clearly in denial, though. Genuinely new to the market today is 99 (1F2) Warrender Park Road, at OO 275. The flat mentioned above, which has disappeared, is 115 (2F1) Warrender Park Road, also a genuine three-bedder, in the same run of tenements. It came to the market in May for OO 295, then went to 340 FP, and was last seen advertised at 310 FP. Therefore if anyone is daft enough to offer over 275 for 99 (1F2), I can’t imagine them offering more than a few pence over. It would be far better to wait for three-bed flats like this to drop below the 3% stamp duty threshold, as they surely must during the coming months. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TTD Posted November 25, 2008 Share Posted November 25, 2008 "Do properties automatically get taken off the ESPC if unsold after six months? If so, that could certainly explain why one that I’m watching has disappeared, even though the ‘for sale’ sign is still up." The blurbs sez the 200 quid or so covers their 'first' six months in the guide, website, etc. So if unsold after 6 months, it'll get taken off unless the seller pays another 200. There's nothing to stop their agent continuing to market it through individual website, office, publication, so this could be the case for the one you spotted where it's not on the ESPC, but sale board still in place. The member firms, although they are members, aren't obliged to put their properties in the ESPC, AFAIK.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TTD Posted December 1, 2008 Share Posted December 1, 2008 .. in my regular watch area, out of 58 'new' properties, 18 of these are renewals of 6 mths or more..... 31% ... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
geneer Posted December 28, 2008 Share Posted December 28, 2008 And now novembers figures are very late. Will we be getting an HPC christmas bonus. Or is it a coverup? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
geneer Posted January 6, 2009 Share Posted January 6, 2009 Smells like a bit of a cover up. I would guess it will be released with the quarterly report. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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