Edinburgh Facts And Figures

[geneer]

My ESPC searches are showing about the same number of properties (194) still down from the peak of (206) a few weeks ago, but not by much. A dozen or so new properties have been added, so a similar number have been removed. Obviously some of these may have sold.

No big price shifts to report, everybody still sitting tight or switching to FP. Tiny drops on some of the higher end properties. Sigh.

"house prices have never crashed in Edinburgh". So they hold out.

All I can say is watch this space.

[SelfDoIt]

http://www.myhouseprice.com/marketanalysis...lysisCharts.cfm

I can only assume (optimistically) that the upswing of the last couple of months is a statistical anomally based on a reduced number of sales but a higher percentage of 'premium' homes selling.

Any other view points? Bull trap?

Depressing anyway.

[roblpm]

My view point is that so little is selling its difficult to see what the prices are!

Just have to wait. It is coming. Edinburgh is already down 15% from peak in the area I am I reckon. That is, nothing is selling apart from a few that have reduced to get a sale. This only started about a month ago I reckon so wont feed in to the figures for months!! Come back in 6 months!

[ccc]

My view point is that so little is selling its difficult to see what the prices are!

Just have to wait. It is coming. Edinburgh is already down 15% from peak in the area I am I reckon. That is, nothing is selling apart from a few that have reduced to get a sale. This only started about a month ago I reckon so wont feed in to the figures for months!! Come back in 6 months!

I would agree. Area I ahve been watchign is Gorgie. Not coz I want to move there but it is a pretty perfect indicator of 'FTB sentiment'.

From the peak last year, as my stats in this thread show, it is down about 15% already. That is if you actually want to sell your place. In real terms that is about 20% already.... And I reckon we have at the very least another 2 years of this to go, probably 3 or 4.

Also parents just sold their place after waiting for over a year. Was on busy Queensferry Road, but nice area - Barnton. Also lovely big stone built detached bungalow. 6 bedrooms, conservatory, large garden, garage, loft conversion, annexe etc... 4 valuations of 500k. I looked at past sales figures and those valuations were ********. Told my parents but they didn't listen. I reckon at the peak last spring they may have touched 500k but only if they got really lucky.

Put it on at OO 475 last August. Very little. Then changed to FP of 475. Almost no interest - right up until July this year. Then they started to listen to what I was saying. Dropped the price by 50k and got an offer of 415 within the week. Cash has now all gone through so thats why I am telling this now. Didn't want to tempt fate !!

When they started to sell last year they were told they would get "at least 500k", with up to 550k if there was "a bidding war".

In the end they got 17% less than the minimum they were told they would get. So that is a real fall of 22% for a lovely big house in a nice area (allbeit on a busy road) - and it took over a year.

If people have to sell in Edinburgh just now that is waht they are looking at.

I have said all along falls of 30-50% in real terms in Edinburgh on average. I reckon I may have underestimated.

[SelfDoIt]

Lots of new properties added in a lump today, so the numbers on the searches have gone back up. This is interesting. Many of the properties that I am watching in the £200K to £250K band are doing nibble drops to their fixed prices. My property bee sidebar doesn't update properly, so It is hard to tell how many, but 2 properties have this week fallen down from above into my £250K search band due to drops of 7.2 and 9.2 % respectively to their fixed prices.

Of the new properties that have come on, I think the asking prices are more reasonable (compared to what is already on the market) for what the properties actually are. There are some 3 beds appearing on the list now, they wouldn't have been there before.

Fingers crossed these are the pebbles that start the avalanche. I'm feeling much more positive about this today.

[blackbrogue]

Despite being a dyed in the wool bear, I have recently been tempted into making an offer on a fairly unique house. Having only recently moved to Edinburgh from England this has been my first experience of the Edinburgh housing market. My observations are as follows:

- Vendors must be really hacked off with the price expectations that solicitors/EAs have indicated are achievable.

- Given what the vendors were told was achievable (£500k), they are now FP at 100k less, for me they are still at least 10% over-valued.

- Surely the whole ESPC racket is a cartel aimed at maintaining high prices. Why do I have to make an offer via the solicitor? It appears to me that my solicitor is in part working for the vendor through encouraging me to raise my offer to secure the property despite there being no-one else interested.

- As a chain free buyer I'm starting to become impatient at not being taken seriously. I know it wouldn't help but my temptation is to instruct my solicitor that my offer is 10% less than FP, regardless any future reductions - in effect an offers under bid - after all if this was acceptable in a sellers market why not in a buyers market!

A bit of a whinge and nothing new but I am feeling disheartened by the mockery of a market that the Edinburgh property scene represents. BTW I noticed on the ESPC Jul update that 60% of FP are selling at less than the FP - not a statistic that I have seen repeated or reported elsewhere despite its significance.

[Angry Rob]

Despite being a dyed in the wool bear, I have recently been tempted into making an offer on a fairly unique house. Having only recently moved to Edinburgh from England this has been my first experience of the Edinburgh housing market. My observations are as follows:

- Vendors must be really hacked off with the price expectations that solicitors/EAs have indicated are achievable.

- Given what the vendors were told was achievable (£500k), they are now FP at 100k less, for me they are still at least 10% over-valued.

- Surely the whole ESPC racket is a cartel aimed at maintaining high prices. Why do I have to make an offer via the solicitor? It appears to me that my solicitor is in part working for the vendor through encouraging me to raise my offer to secure the property despite there being no-one else interested.

- As a chain free buyer I'm starting to become impatient at not being taken seriously. I know it wouldn't help but my temptation is to instruct my solicitor that my offer is 10% less than FP, regardless any future reductions - in effect an offers under bid - after all if this was acceptable in a sellers market why not in a buyers market!

A bit of a whinge and nothing new but I am feeling disheartened by the mockery of a market that the Edinburgh property scene represents. BTW I noticed on the ESPC Jul update that 60% of FP are selling at less than the FP - not a statistic that I have seen repeated or reported elsewhere despite its significance.

I agree wholeheartedly with your assessment of the workings of the Edinburgh market. I don't like the fact that you are told what to pay - this is such an archaic system. I believe this is deep rooted in Scots' paying too much reverence to Professionals. We place far too much trust in them, when really it is our money so we should be doing the negotiating.

No, I've opted out of this system. Admittedly, the English system is a bit chaotic where no certainty can develop and chains can collapse - a combination of the two would work better.

And yes, the ESPC is a cartel! Stay clear - let them go under.

[Radge]

I wouldn't dream of offering more than FP less 20% in the current climate!

Edited August 27, 2008 by Radge

[roblpm]

2nd Quarter RoS figure out today

Edinburgh:

+5.9% YoY

+6.2% QoQ

http://www.ros.gov.uk/pdfs/2008_08_release.pdf

[EdiLass]

Despite being a dyed in the wool bear, I have recently been tempted into making an offer on a fairly unique house. Having only recently moved to Edinburgh from England this has been my first experience of the Edinburgh housing market. My observations are as follows:

- Vendors must be really hacked off with the price expectations that solicitors/EAs have indicated are achievable.

- Given what the vendors were told was achievable (£500k), they are now FP at 100k less, for me they are still at least 10% over-valued.

- Surely the whole ESPC racket is a cartel aimed at maintaining high prices. Why do I have to make an offer via the solicitor? It appears to me that my solicitor is in part working for the vendor through encouraging me to raise my offer to secure the property despite there being no-one else interested.

- As a chain free buyer I'm starting to become impatient at not being taken seriously. I know it wouldn't help but my temptation is to instruct my solicitor that my offer is 10% less than FP, regardless any future reductions - in effect an offers under bid - after all if this was acceptable in a sellers market why not in a buyers market!

A bit of a whinge and nothing new but I am feeling disheartened by the mockery of a market that the Edinburgh property scene represents. BTW I noticed on the ESPC Jul update that 60% of FP are selling at less than the FP - not a statistic that I have seen repeated or reported elsewhere despite its significance.

I've only bought three times (all in Scotland) and there is nothing to stop you talking to the seller directly and offering them a price. I did that the first two times I bought, and when I sold the first place. We negotitated directly and then put in the formal offer through the solicitor. When I bought the flat I'm in, I negotitated through the solicitor on another property, had them put in a low offer, then upped my offer slightly when I was turned down.

They will give you sage advice, but at the end of the day you instruct them and they will put the offer that you instruct.

[Scunnered]

Here's a Scotsman story about Johnston Press, the publishers of many newspapers including the Scotsman itself and the Evening News: Johnston Press hit by house market woes as property advertising slides.

JOHNSTON Press yesterday revealed that tumbling returns from the property and job markets had left its advertising revenues down more than a fifth.

The group, which publishes titles including The Scotsman, axed its half-year dividend and told shareholders that advertising trends continue to deteriorate.

Reporting an 18 per cent fall in profits for the six months to 30 June, Johnston said advertising revenues declined 9.5 per cent.

Property print revenues fell by 17.8 per cent over the six months.

etcetera.

Looks like their profits really are dependent on the state of the housing market.

[roblpm]

Scunnered, I'm worried about you, you are either up too late or up too early!!

[SelfDoIt]

2nd Quarter RoS figure out today

Edinburgh:

+5.9% YoY

+6.2% QoQ

http://www.ros.gov.uk/pdfs/2008_08_release.pdf

This has got to be squewed by high end sales and low volumes. My ESPC searches show asking prices creeping down slowly but steadily.

[Scunnered]

Scunnered, I'm worried about you, you are either up too late or up too early!!

Thanks for your concern roblpm. I've been getting up too early recently. I wake up every morning and spring out of bed, eager for news of Edinburgh's crashing property market. There never is any, so I just feel depressed and go back to bed for the rest of the day.

EDIT: Hold on, I've cheered up a bit now: Housing slump hits Capital market as sales drop by 25%

ESPC man says

We are starting to see more of a buyers' market develop, with the average premium now at 17 per cent – ten per cent lower than last year. We expect that to start to translate into a fall in average prices.

"If we continue to see what has been seen recently we would certainly expect the average price to come down. There have been a lot more fixed prices and more sales below fixed prices.

Edited August 28, 2008 by Scunnered

[roblpm]

Crikey, the ESPC say prices are going to fall??!! They must realise they are all going to be out of a job unless they can get the transaction volumes up. And the only way to do that now is to talk the market down!!

BTW I think the word is "Skewed" and everone in Scotland tells me how much better the education system is up here compared to South of the border!!

[Jadoube]

Crikey, the ESPC say prices are going to fall??!! They must realise they are all going to be out of a job unless they can get the transaction volumes up. And the only way to do that now is to talk the market down!!

BTW I think the word is "Skewed" and everone in Scotland tells me how much better the education system is up here compared to South of the border!!

Well it used to be.

[SelfDoIt]

Crikey, the ESPC say prices are going to fall??!! They must realise they are all going to be out of a job unless they can get the transaction volumes up. And the only way to do that now is to talk the market down!!

BTW I think the word is "Skewed" and everone in Scotland tells me how much better the education system is up here compared to South of the border!!

I was wondering how to spell that. I couldn't make it look right. Don't worry I was educated in Canada and I'm an engineer anyway so I'm not supposed to be literate.

To quote from that article, they agree with my assessment of the numbers:

Andrew Smith, a partner at Strutt & Parker in Edinburgh, believes the healthy top end is masking drops in value at the lower end. He said: "The difficulty with these statistics is that they hide a lot of factors. What we have seen is a very different market where the higher value properties are much easier to sell.

"The majority of these mid-top end buyers have probably already built up a lot of equity and will not look at properties that require as big a mortgage as the lower end."

Which makes sense if the transactions are down 25%, but the sales volume is only down 21%. They have been selling fewer more expensive houses.

Edited August 29, 2008 by SelfDoIt

[ccc]

Been keeping a track of rents in Edinburgh on another site so thought I should add here:

Search for 2 bed flats in Edinburgh area.

LETTING WEB:

7 April 2008:

£600-£700 = 265 flats

£700-£800 = 124 flats

£800-£900 = 47 flats

436 total

12 July 2008:

£600-£700 = 265 flats

£700-£800 = 159 flats

£800-£900 = 64 flats

492 total

30 Aug 2008:

£600-£700 = 248 flats

£700-£800 =146 flats

£800-£900 = 55 flats

449 total

CITYLETS:

7 April 2008:

£600-£700 2 bed in Edinburgh = 241

£700-£800 2 bed In Edinburgh = 141

£800-£900 2 bed in Edinburgh = 78

460 Total

12 Jul 2008:

£600-£700 2 bed in Edinburgh = 271

£700-£800 2 bed In Edinburgh = 198

£800-£900 2 bed in Edinburgh = 121

590 Total

30 Aug 2008:

£600-£700 2 bed in Edinburgh = 265

£700-£800 2 bed In Edinburgh = 203

£800-£900 2 bed in Edinburgh = 141

609 Total

Seems rental supply is increasing. Funny that. Where does 'soaring rents' come into this..

[roblpm]

Crikey CCC I was already worried about Scunnered and now you are posting at 6am on a Saturday morning. Is there something in the Edinburgh water that isn't affecting me??!! I wish I jumped out of bed that early on a Saturday!

[roblpm]

Just looking at sold prices from Spring 2008 in Morningside and amazingly I think after all this is done and dusted we will see that the peak in Edinburgh was actually Spring 2008 not Aug/Sept 2007 as in England.

It appears that at least at the start the credit crunch didn't put people off, and that the mantra Edinburgh/Scotland is different was sustained due to positive press etc.

[SelfDoIt]

A whole 18 new properties were added to my main search this week, and my standard search is now back up to 197 properties. It peaked at 206 in June or July and had trickled down over festival.

I bet they will continue to flood in for the next two months which means that we should see some serious cuts by Christmas.

Things are going to look alot different in the spring. There may even be something of a 'spring bounce' if things get really dire over the winter.

I thought this would happen more slowly here because it has been stuck with nothing moving for so long, but now I think things could go down quite quickly.

[SelfDoIt]

I'm in a very gleeful mood today. No fewer than 13 properties on my ESPC search list have registered price reductions in the last 2 days (as opposed to about the same number over the last 6 weeks). Thank you Metro for putting the house price drop on the front page and Gordon Brown for the stamp duty holiday. Two of the properties were in the £185K fixed price range and have now been brought under the new threshold and several others are offering stamp duty paid now, which I count as a price reduction.

Hooray! Trickle trickle trikle and down they come!

[SelfDoIt]

I'm all alone here!

17 new properties showing up on my search this week from ESPC. That is double digit additions for 2 weeks running.

Some of the asking prices are pretty aspirational for this lot too. 2 bedroom tenements in nice areas asking offers over £250K. Dream on!

No reductions today, but a bunch more shifed to fixed prices at 14% premiums or thereabouts. The ESPC solicitors must read their own stats because I think that is supposed to be the going OO premium at the moment. Totally silly, but at least its down from the 27% that it used to be.

[SelfDoIt]

Still talking to myself.

Third straight week of double digit additions of properties to my search, which is unprecidented in the year I have been monitoring this. 19 added this week, some are still pretty aspirational if you ask me; they don't appear to have taken into account falls from peak. I suppose they all think their property is special.

A handful of minor reductions in prices or flips to FP. Some of the properties that have been sitting there for months with no changes to their prices are starting to look silly now. Newer properties that are equivalent or better are coming on for lower (though still rediculous) prices.

One especially made me laugh it was marked as 'reduced for quick sale' with £5000 knocked off its £220+K price. (Can't find the link again now)

[roblpm]

Self Do IT

You are not alone!! Just seems that 4 million scots are oblivious to what is happening / about to happen.

Have to say where I am (Morningside, Edinburgh) a flood of properties has just come on the market, all at aspirational prices. Will be interesting to see how many of tehm have sold by Christmas. I think it will be a long dark winter as the stats finally go negative for Scotland and Edinburgh, anecdotally know of many being laid off in the property / estate agents business. I think they will be our best friend as they will all go bust unless people drop their prices.

Keep posting!!