Newcastle Upon Tyne

[Pent Vaer]

Compare this month's auction with the one from 28 Sept 2004, the results speak volumes, a Property listed as WITHDRAWN I believe more than likely indicates SOLD outside of the auction.

Pattinson Property Auction - 28 Sept 2004

In the last two days of September they reduced four Gosforth properties, maybe they were auction rejects, I havn't bothered to check:

2005 / 09 / 30

P: 100/44345 / 180000 (-35000) / ARCHIBALD STREET, GOSFO

P: 101/30062 / 384950 (-5050) / MOOR ROAD NORTH, GOSFORT

P: 101/41830 / 384950 (-5000) / FLAXBY CLOSE, WHITEBRIDG

P: 101/43126 / 170000 (-15000) / 71 HYDE TERRACE, GOSFOR

In the whole of September 13 properties were reduced and 2 increased in price in Gosforth, with an average of -7676 (including the increases).

Here's some interesting behaviour:

2005 / 09 / 05

P: 101/37507 / 155000 (-5000) / BROADWAY WEST , GOSFORTH

2005 / 09 / 30

P: 101/37507 / 174950 (19950) / BROADWAY WEST , GOSFORTH

First they cut 5k off, then a few weeks later slap on 20k! Maybe

they just finished installing the laminate in the kitchen :-)

The highest average price of the last two months, which I expect/hope will turn out to be the peak of the bubble, was 216919 on15th August. Since then, we're down 2.1% to 212220. I only started monitoring

start of August.

I tried to include the sales per 50k price band, but the formatting didn't work. Essentially, it seems that in all of Gosforth, Washington and Durham, 150k-200k is the crash sweet spot, with 3 times or more houses coming on the market than selling.

Pent

p.s. I only look at 3+ bedroom properties

[hickton 10]

Hi all .Im new Discovered this site today which has been eye opening . I live in Yarm on Teesside and have ben renting property for some 15 years . I bought an apartment off plan at 55 degres in the expectation of growth ( aided by capital of culture status ) :angry: what happened there !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!Ive enjoyed full occupancy there although the price aint moved much . I always saw it a s kind of pension plan as long as it paid for itself - which it has - touch wood .

What do any of you people think the impact of SIPPS will have on btl market April onwards in Newcastle ? Surely it can only invogorate the market once the pension funds get emptied and poured into property portfolios for the handsome tax breaks . They wont be local people but possibly consortiums from the south . Remember many investment fund managers are quite techy these days due to oil price volatility and similarly all it takes is an airliner to fly into a skyscraper to upset the stock market .

Im not panicking about my unit as its a long term plan and will ride peaks ant troughs over the 25 mortgaged years . This is a mighty useful forum however .

[njwd]

Although impossible to predict the future, my concern would be the glut of these style of properties in Newcastle city centre. There are many unfilled/unsold. Combine that with the fact that more are currently in development and city 'lifestyle' apartments don't look so appealing short-term.

Long-term, who knows? It could potentially go two ways:

1) Optimistic - Due to soaring fuel and energy bills, city centre living may boom in 20+ years time as commuting from the suburbs and heating larger homes could be restrictive.

2) Pessimistic - These developments plummet in price and they become like the tower blocks of the 60's / 70's. Shabby and not well maintained. Housing Associations then buy up properties and potentially make them available to riff-raff. Privately owned properties plummet further as a consequence.

Although it starts off quite specific, take a look at this thread concerning these types of flats. Differing viewpoints: http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/ind...?showtopic=7385

I'm not too sure about SIPPS. There is already an over-supply of 'lifestyle' apartments in Newcastle. Check the letting agency websites. As I mentioned further up, one has 16 properties to let in Baltic Quay. No sign of them being filled. Once owners face larger periods of voids and having to pay council tax on empty properties, combined with the seeming market slowdown, their investment doesn't look so good, particularly in the short-term. I don't know if I'd be wanting to throw money into that.

Edited October 1, 2005 by njwd

[njwd]

Being the sad sort that I am, I've been doing some analysis of the availability of city style apartments purely in Newcastle city centre / quayside. I believe the findings show a huge glut.

Although I haven't by any means checked every estate agents these details are from 4 of the big ones, plus a large letting agents. No doubt a lot of the smaller EAs also have properties on their books.

Some figures:

The First figure is: To Let - The Second is For Sale

55 Degrees North: 8 - 13 - Cheapest 1 bed for 135K

City Gate: 0 - 3

Printworks: 1 - 3

The Bar: 2 - 24 - There is a 2 bed up for £130k - must be taking the hit now!

Lime Sq: 0 - 3 - Sanderson Young have details of many many more unsold.

Baltic Quay: 22 - 8

Ochre Yards: 5 - 3 - Now available with £17K cash back on over £200K!

Curzon Place: 0 - 5 - Plus many more unsold yet.

Bonded Warehouse: 0 - 20 - Plus more unsold

Central Lofts: 6 - 3

Pudding Chare: 1 - 2

Manor Chare: 1 - 0

Marconi House: 4 - 0

The really interesting one is the next one. I looked at all other City Centre/Quayside apartments of a similar ilk. Particularly - St Annes Quay, High Quay, Turnbull, etc.

Other City / Quays: 49 - 61

Due to the supply/demand of these places, I can't see anything other than prices to drop. It seems a lot of investors have been looking for 'flippers' and BTL properties aren't getting filled. Typical cost of a rental on a 1 bed is ~£600. 2 bed ~£700+. I can see that dropping too, due to competition.

These places are also having to also compete with typical areas for 1/2 bedroom flats such as Jesmond, Sandyford, Heaton and Spital Tongues.

Edited October 2, 2005 by njwd

[flash harry]

Hi all .Im new Discovered this site today which has been eye opening . I live in Yarm on Teesside and have ben renting property for some 15 years . I bought an apartment off plan at 55 degres in the expectation of growth ( aided by capital of culture status ) :angry: what happened there !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!Ive enjoyed full occupancy there although the price aint moved much . I always saw it a s kind of pension plan as long as it paid for itself - which it has - touch wood .

What do any of you people think the impact of SIPPS will have on btl market April onwards in Newcastle ? Surely it can only invogorate the market once the pension funds get emptied and poured into property portfolios for the handsome tax breaks . They wont be local people but possibly consortiums from the south . Remember many investment fund managers are quite techy these days due to oil price volatility and similarly all it takes is an airliner to fly into a skyscraper to upset the stock market .

Im not panicking about my unit as its a long term plan and will ride peaks ant troughs over the 25 mortgaged years . This is a mighty useful forum however .

Welcome to the forum

Here's an excelent thread on Sips.

http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/ind...showtopic=16605

Also, is it true that Accenture own a lot of the flats in 55 degrees north which they let to their employees.

FH

Edited October 2, 2005 by flash harry

[njwd]

Not too sure about Accenture and 55 Degrees specifically, but I have heard of large companies purchasing these new builds to be used as homes for 'out of region' staff when they are up for business.

The eye-opening numbers for the availability of city centre apartments are:

At least 148 available for sale, but the actual reality is that there are many more sites yet unfinished or still remaining unsold from the developers too.

At least 99 available to rent

[flash harry]

Not too sure about Accenture and 55 Degrees specifically, but I have heard of large companies purchasing these new builds to be used as homes for 'out of region' staff when they are up for business.

The eye-opening numbers for the availability of city centre apartments are:

At least 148 available for sale, but the actual reality is that there are many more sites yet unfinished or still remaining unsold from the developers too.

At least 99 available to rent

Will be interesting to see what happens when money for some of the governments large projects drys up (DWP, NHS, Defra etc). Wonder if these companies will sell up.

[wraithy]

Hello,

New to the site and impressed with the opinions expressed by people on the subject of a crash in Newcastle.

I myself am interest as I am a FTB looking to get in on the property ladder, although at the moment it seems as though renting and saving is the way forward for the forseeable future.

Is everyone out there still of the opinion that renting is still the best option at the moment until prices level off so to speak a bit more?

Would be interested in people's views on the FTB situation in Newcastle at present.

[njwd]

Hello,

New to the site and impressed with the opinions expressed by people on the subject of a crash in Newcastle.

I myself am interest as I am a FTB looking to get in on the property ladder, although at the moment it seems as though renting and saving is the way forward for the forseeable future.

Is everyone out there still of the opinion that renting is still the best option at the moment until prices level off so to speak a bit more?

Would be interested in people's views on the FTB situation in Newcastle at present.

Hi,

I'm definitely going to continue to rent at the moment, despite being in a position to buy now. I hope there will be a correction in price so that my 3.5 multiplier of salary will get me a slighter larger place in a nicer area.

In the meantime, I'm hoping to see a slight reduction in rents due to an over saturation of the 1-2 bedroom flat rental market, but that is yet to materialise. Maybe it's just my wishful thinking. BTL-ers will be reluctant to reduce the yield on their new properties.

I think the traditionally popular areas for FTB (Jesmond, Sandyford, Heaton etc. - your typical Tyneside flats) will be a slower correction than the crash of new city centre apartments.

I've been keeping an eye on the estate agents and places do seem to be dropping slightly combined with the fact the buyer's market will allow for reduced bids. Say, 5-10% off.

If the BoE reduce/maintain rates it will just prolong the agony. An unlikely increase in rates and a more expensive winter with regards to energy costs might start the fall proper.

All IMHO of course.

[wraithy]

Thanks.

Don't know if your opinion would change but am 24 years of age, in a relationship circa 4-5 years and unfortunately have little at this time of savings to rely upon. Currently renting at St. Peters Basin a 2 bedroom flat rent £550.00 per month.

Thinking of speaking to a mortgage broker to discuss mortgage options to determine capacity however having read alot of the threads posted it seems that the majority of persons are of the opinion that renting in the short term is the safest and wisest option.

Just looking for second opinions.

[flash harry]

£550 is about average for st peters basin.

One way to look at it, is if the house costs around £150,000 then the interest on an interest only morgage will be about the same as what your paying in rent now (£550). This means your not currently losing out by renting (thats assuming the place is £150,000 which i'm assuming it is)

With prices stagnant and a some surveys saying the north east is dropping faster in price, you've got nothing to lose by waiting 12 months and seeing what happens with the market. If your losing approx £50-£100 per month then its still worth waiting a year as I'd still rather pay that rather than risk negative equity (which could be large negative equity as 60% of north east GDP is from the state, there maybe more public sector jobs but the average wage is the same and if a government needs to cut costs LIFO)

Wait it out, save a good deposit and buy in 12-24 months (or when the market stops dropping over successive months)

FH

[wraithy]

Once more thank you all for your thoughts.

Just read today on BBC online that the Halifax is reporting that house prices are rising by around 3%. I know from having spoken to some solicitors/conveyancing type people that there departments are quite busy at the moment with completions.

Seems that the wait and see policy is still the best one for the time being.

Again thank you for your suggestions, they have got me thinking on alternatives once more.

[flash harry]

Once more thank you all for your thoughts.

Just read today on BBC online that the Halifax is reporting that house prices are rising by around 3%. I know from having spoken to some solicitors/conveyancing type people that there departments are quite busy at the moment with completions.

Seems that the wait and see policy is still the best one for the time being.

Again thank you for your suggestions, they have got me thinking on alternatives once more.

No problems, it's good to share differing opinions. I'm always wary of sites where theres only one eopinion. A combination of bears and bulls makes the site healthy.

One thing to bear in mind when looking halifax is that they have vested interests so they often produce 'spin' on figures (but not always). Look at the VI threads to see how they do this.

FH

[SpoonUnit]

Knightsbridge Court Madness

Wtf is going on with the asking prices of the flats in this place?

If you had to, which would you buy:

A one (or two, depends which bit you believe on Rightmove) bedroom flat for 210k?

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/viewdetails-477...a_n=14&tr_t=buy

Or a two bedroom flat for 160k?

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/viewdetails-945...a_n=31&tr_t=buy

Ok, so the first one has a balcony (it must be made of gold judging by the price difference)

Have a look on Rightmove for the prices of other flats in Knightsbridge court. They are all over the place.

SpoonUnit

[njwd]

To be honest, I wouldn't pay £100K for either.

Busy Roundabout, High School, Metro/Bus Interchange literally on your doorstep.

I know good transport links are a plus, but not that close

[SpoonUnit]

To be honest, I wouldn't pay £100K for either.

Busy Roundabout, High School, Metro/Bus Interchange literally on your doorstep.

I know good transport links are a plus, but not that close

Me neither, perhaps the caveat "if you had to" should have been "if someone was holding a gun to your head"

[neilrich]

To be honest, I wouldn't pay £100K for either.

Busy Roundabout, High School, Metro/Bus Interchange literally on your doorstep.

I know good transport links are a plus, but not that close

As has been mentioned before there are certainly many apartments For Sale at Knightsbridge Court, Pattinson estate agents currently list 11 For Sale, nethouseprices.com show that NO sales have been completed there this year! How come prices are NOT falling? Over supply and Zero Demand, so why don't they start dropping prices!!

[undersupply]

Thought some of you would like to read this from saturdays homemaker.

Prices climb as market recovers Oct 8 2005

By Karen Wilson, The Journal

The North-East has bucked the national trend as house prices rose by 6.6% in the third quarter of this year, compared to a drop of 0.6% in the previous quarter.

The annual rate of inflation in the region is up to 5.6% (from 4.9%) - almost 100% higher than the national average of 3%, according to the latest Halifax survey.

Neil Foster, of Foster Maddison Estate Agents, said: "This is yet another indication that the market in the North is robust. While there appears to be oversupply in some sectors of the urban market, rural property remains in short supply.

"Upward pressure on rural prices is unlikely to abate, with some local planning authorities exercising a moratorium on new-house building.

"We envisage a situation where the falling rate of new building will fuel domestic house price inflation over the next few years.

"The market relies on balance between supply and demand, and while demand had been extraordinarily high in recent years, during a period of unprecedented house price inflation, we are now experiencing the impact of excessive restriction on the supply of new homes in many areas.

"We predicted that house price inflation in the North-East would run to around 5% for 2005, and these latest findings continue to support that."

Chris Stonock, regional manager of Halifax Estate Agency, said the North had seen the biggest house price rises of all 12 UK regions over the past three years, with prices almost doubling.

He said: "The slowdown in prices has brought renewed interest from first-time buyers who have started to creep back as properties have become more affordable."

The strongest performer in the North in the past year was Barrow-in-Furness, with 28% growth, which ranked it among the best performing in the UK. Property prices have risen by 23% in Bishop Auckland, Redcar saw strong growth of 24%, prices in Sunderland increased by 13% while Newcastle has seen a 5% rise. The most expensive town in the North is Morpeth (£187,730).

Another survey, from Propertyfinder.com, suggests that the gulf is closing between unrealistic, stubborn sellers and bargain-hunting buyers.

The website's research shows that the gap was almost completely closed in September, as buyers were offering an average of 4.5% below asking price, while sellers said they would accept 4.3% below.

Sales had hit their lowest point in January when the gap between buyer and seller expectations was widest - but now it would seem that buyers and sellers are more prepared to negotiate on price.

[flash harry]

How can sellers be dropping prices and prices being going up ??

Apollo. You seem to have a fair take on the north east what do you think?

[Pent Vaer]

How can sellers be dropping prices and prices being going up ??

Apollo. You seem to have a fair take on the north east what do you think?

Don't worry about it, apparently Halifax live in a different world than the rest of us. Their last two monthly reports have gone against all the other price indices (they say up by a lot, others say down by a little).

Here are Nationwide's regional quarterly figures, thanks to KoN on

TMF:

NORTH

Q1 2002 £59,504 8.7%

Q2 2002 £65,842 22.0%

Q3 2002 £70,928 18.7%

Q4 2002 £75,657 27.1%

Q1 2003 £81,226 36.5%

Q2 2003 £87,082 32.3%

Q3 2003 £93,334 31.6%

Q4 2003 £98,448 30.1%

Q1 2004 £108,255 33.3%

Q2 2004 £115,790 33.0%

Q3 2004 £121,378 30.0%

Q4 2004 £120,859 22.8%

Q1 2005 £122,827 13.5%

Q2 2005 £125,374 8.3%

Q3 2005 £124,488 2.6%

Looks much brighter doesn't it ? YoY falling constantly and peak price in Q2. Fits much better with what I'm observing personally with EA monitoring too.

How surprising that the 'Journal Homemaker' doesn't mention other indices that don't sound so positive for the market.

Pent

Edited October 9, 2005 by Pent Vaer

[flash harry]

These figures are more reflective of what I'm seeing on the ground.

Houses in gateshead have stopped moving. A Few Sh**holes are moving at aroung the £65,000 range but they are way overpriced and the poor people buying them are probably restricted to that pricerange and influenced by the insrcruplous PR spin being churned out by halifax and now The Journal.

It would be interesting to see if the Journal has an Ethics Statement in its corporate values and whether they have ditched it in pursuit of sales revenue (they publish that magazine)

FH

Edited October 9, 2005 by flash harry

[njwd]

In my opinion the Journal have a vested interest in the market due to the Homemaker and its advertising. It's amazing the propoganda it spouts.

A nice example is the cost of the Homemaker itself. Back in 2001/2002 it used to cost 50p. I think these days it's £1. Nice to see they are keeping the increase in "value" in line with the houses/developments/ that it promotes.

Edited October 9, 2005 by njwd

[undersupply]

Any ideas who is, Neilrich?

Neil Foster, of Foster Maddison Estate Agents, said: "This is yet another indication that the market in the North is robust. While there appears to be oversupply in some sectors of the urban market, rural property remains in short supply.

"Upward pressure on rural prices is unlikely to abate, with some local planning authorities exercising a moratorium on new-house building.

"We envisage a situation where the falling rate of new building will fuel domestic house price inflation over the next few years.

"The market relies on balance between supply and demand, and while demand had been extraordinarily high in recent years, during a period of unprecedented house price inflation, we are now experiencing the impact of excessive restriction on the supply of new homes in many areas.

"We predicted that house price inflation in the North-East would run to around 5% for 2005, and these latest findings continue to support that."

[neilrich]

Any ideas who is, Neilrich?

Neil Foster, of Foster Maddison Estate Agents, said: "This is yet another indication that the market in the North is robust. While there appears to be oversupply in some sectors of the urban market, rural property remains in short supply.

"Upward pressure on rural prices is unlikely to abate, with some local planning authorities exercising a moratorium on new-house building.

"We envisage a situation where the falling rate of new building will fuel domestic house price inflation over the next few years.

"The market relies on balance between supply and demand, and while demand had been extraordinarily high in recent years, during a period of unprecedented house price inflation, we are now experiencing the impact of excessive restriction on the supply of new homes in many areas.

"We predicted that house price inflation in the North-East would run to around 5% for 2005, and these latest findings continue to support that."

Are you suggesting that I might be Neil Foster? Well I'm sorry to disapoint, the SPIN that you quote, I don't write bol**cks!

[neilrich]

Another Property Ladder style makeover for number 3 Lincoln Green, according to nethouseprices.com this house SOLD 07/08/2005 for £170k. It was back on the market within a couple of weeks for £210k!!! However within the last week the price has been reduced to offers over £199,950!

3 Lincoln Green, Gosforth

Edited December 6, 2005 by neilrich