Northern Ireland Quarterly House Price Index Reports

[BelfastVI]

I haven't kept track of the different house types in this report over the years. Someone may already have this which would save me going over it again.

It appears, which will be no surprise that there are several different markets within the market. Apartments, again unsurprisingly have fallen more. Too many of them, were too dear, high service charge and the ageing FTB'er has shifted his/her focus to a house. I imagine that has some more distance to travel. The repo's is playing its part. You can see this coming through in North (-25% in the quarter!) and East Belfast (-20% in the Quarter) where the investors have run and the banks are offloading.

However, the traditional housing markets on Lisburn, South Belfast and East Antrim have all done well. Lisburn showing a y/y rise of 8%. This is too high to be correct but is a strong positive reflection of that area. East Antrim (exact boundary of this region is unknown to me), returned a positive annual growth. South Belfast, North and South Down showed small drops over the year. These are the areas that I build in and if you were to take the repo's and apartments out of the study the market would perhaps be even stronger. The results show that volume (of the sample) was 15% up on last year, which in turn was 15% up on the previous. However, I'm sure repo's account for alot of this. West of the Bann is now finally adjusting with most regions at -20% or above for the year on year figures

[2buyornot2buy]

Ah who remembers the good old days "south Belfast and Down will never fall"?

You're fond of using peak as your reference point BVI, how far have these areas dropped? What are transaction levels at now compared to peak?

[Shotoflight]

BBc 5 0clock news radio ulster. Conor Cooke director ups v Alan Bridle Bank of Ireland - presented as 2 experts.

Q - What can we do to stop prices haemhorraging?

Connor - confidence is back, appetite is back, sales up, viewings up - viewings into the thousands - can barely cope, affordability, run off their feet, but would like to see more finance and 95% deals.

In fairness, Seamus mckee probed and asserted sales from a very low base. Conor (or was it Alan?) stated prices were now correct for the condition of the economy - he has a house which was (would have been valued at?) £450k at peak which currently had an offer of £202k.

Rejoice, the boom times are back - get your chequebooks out. Don't miss the boat. Buy with confidence.

No doubt ups contribute to UUJ figures. Makes you wonder.

Alan (not known as a cheerleader for price falls) was a little more cautious, circumspect and realistic - prices will drop a further 5-10% in the next yr to 18 months. When pushed on bank finance he agreed reticence was because of the expected further price falls amongst other things.

I know it's a bit nerdy, but if you want a laugh, catch it on the iplayer. Not up as yet.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b007cpv5 6.40 in

Edited February 9, 2012 by Shotoflight

[2buyornot2buy]

Cheers. I was asking about this on the hpc media thread.

[Shotoflight]

Cheers. I was asking about this on the hpc media thread.

http://www.u.tv/utvplayer/

Not up yet but this was good. Linked to northern losses stating bigger developers now getting sucked in. Bridle on again predicting -10% in 18 months. Delargy stated some think it will be worse than this - one of his 'contacts' in the industry (probably bridle in candid off camera mode) expects further bigger falls. Shocking, says Delargy.

Northern bank rep stated land down 70 to 90% and the further out of belfast you go, the closer to 90% it gets. Loan writedown a big and continuing issue.

And not an EA in sight, which made for a more informative piece.

Tuning in to bbc now, sad basket that i am.

[2buyornot2buy]

Sentiment sentiment sentiment. It all helps get the message through but I think many will carry on saying it's a great time to buy. we need regulation to save people from themselves.

[Shotoflight]

Sentiment sentiment sentiment. It all helps get the message through but I think many will carry on saying it's a great time to buy. we need regulation to save people from themselves.

EA given little time on BBC Newsline and asked for smaller deposits and 95% ers - it's too hard to save 20 or even 10%, obviously . No time for the same BS as his radio piece.

Piece highlighted 11% drops with more on the way to the bottom - 10% from Bridle the optomist.

I can live with that. For the time being.

[Shotoflight]

Newsline wasn't great . EA Connor -- more bank lending - smaller deposits. They haven't worked out yet if someone can't save up a 10% deposit then they don't have much chance of paying a mortgage reliably either.

3/4 sales under 150K -- they did pint out the drop in average price among different styles of houses.

They seemed to think that because a house was being sold at a percentage of 2007 prices that it was value for money.

11% last year, further 10% this year.

Tough audience this HPC crowd

Edited February 9, 2012 by Shotoflight

[Vespasian]

I haven't kept track of the different house types in this report over the years. Someone may already have this which would save me going over it again.

It appears, which will be no surprise that there are several different markets within the market. Apartments, again unsurprisingly have fallen more. Too many of them, were too dear, high service charge and the ageing FTB'er has shifted his/her focus to a house. I imagine that has some more distance to travel. The repo's is playing its part. You can see this coming through in North (-25% in the quarter!) and East Belfast (-20% in the Quarter) where the investors have run and the banks are offloading.

However, the traditional housing markets on Lisburn, South Belfast and East Antrim have all done well. Lisburn showing a y/y rise of 8%. This is too high to be correct but is a strong positive reflection of that area. East Antrim (exact boundary of this region is unknown to me), returned a positive annual growth. South Belfast, North and South Down showed small drops over the year. These are the areas that I build in and if you were to take the repo's and apartments out of the study the market would perhaps be even stronger. The results show that volume (of the sample) was 15% up on last year, which in turn was 15% up on the previous. However, I'm sure repo's account for alot of this. West of the Bann is now finally adjusting with most regions at -20% or above for the year on year figures

Blah, Blah, Blah

Change the record, man

Asking prices are still being slashed across the board week after week, until this changes prices will never stabilise

[2buyornot2buy]

Free advertising for Templeton yet again.

[PJ1977]

Connor later added: ''There are no American infidels in Baghdad. Their infidels are committing suicide by the hundreds on the gates of Baghdad. Be assured, Baghdad is safe, protected.'

[PJ1977]

BBc 5 0clock news radio ulster. Conor Cooke director ups v Alan Bridle Bank of Ireland - presented as 2 experts.

Q - What can we do to stop prices haemhorraging?

Connor - confidence is back, appetite is back, sales up, viewings up - viewings into the thousands - can barely cope, affordability, run off their feet, but would like to see more finance and 95% deals.

In fairness, Seamus mckee probed and asserted sales from a very low base. Conor (or was it Alan?) stated prices were now correct for the condition of the economy - he has a house which was (would have been valued at?) £450k at peak which currently had an offer of £202k.

Rejoice, the boom times are back - get your chequebooks out. Don't miss the boat. Buy with confidence.

No doubt ups contribute to UUJ figures. Makes you wonder.

Alan (not known as a cheerleader for price falls) was a little more cautious, circumspect and realistic - prices will drop a further 5-10% in the next yr to 18 months. When pushed on bank finance he agreed reticence was because of the expected further price falls amongst other things.

I know it's a bit nerdy, but if you want a laugh, catch it on the iplayer. Not up as yet.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b007cpv5

With things knocking on so well for UPS and their thousands of viewings I can only assume they accounted for the bulk of Belfast completions last year. Doubtless their rivals will soon announce the game is up.

[2buyornot2buy]

Connor later added: ''There are no American infidels in Baghdad. Their infidels are committing suicide by the hundreds on the gates of Baghdad. Be assured, Baghdad is safe, protected.'

Lol. Very good.

[Shotoflight]

Full report.

http://www.rpp.ulster.ac.uk/housing-index.php

[2buyornot2buy]

Full report.

http://www.rpp.ulster.ac.uk/housing-index.php

Whole page on the report dedicated to the Housing Benefit changes and how this will be awful, blah blah blah.

The NIHE and DSD have commissioned research to determine the effect the changes will have on LLs.

Seriously has NIHE become a lobby group for private landlords? It wants to actively promote changes to the legislation.

HOUSING BENEFIT UNDERPINS CAPTICAL VALUES AND SETS A RENT CELLING.

[BelfastVI]

Ah who remembers the good old days "south Belfast and Down will never fall"?

You're fond of using peak as your reference point BVI, how far have these areas dropped? What are transaction levels at now compared to peak?

No problem, although I normally get told off for making any reference to peak prices.

Going by the UUJ NI, on average is down 45%. The areas I mentioned are down between 35% and 55%. They were by no means immune to the drops. However Lisburn, South Belfast and Mid and south down stand out. They increased the by the least, in percentage terms during the period 2003 Q1 and the peak. They subsequently seem to have fallen the least since the peak. This of course makes some sense. Over the last year, even allowing for the continuing fall in apartment prices and the repos in these areas, the prices have held up and even increased, if the figures are reflective.

Volume

During the Peak of 2007 volume, as recorded by the UUJ Sample was 7,400.

In 2009 the sample size was 42% of the 2007 Volume

In 2010 the sample size was 48% of the 2007 Volume

In 2011 the sample size was 55% of the 2007 Volume

[BelfastVI]

Whole page on the report dedicated to the Housing Benefit changes and how this will be awful, blah blah blah.

The NIHE and DSD have commissioned research to determine the effect the changes will have on LLs.

Seriously has NIHE become a lobby group for private landlords? It wants to actively promote changes to the legislation.

HOUSING BENEFIT UNDERPINS CAPTICAL VALUES AND SETS A RENT CELLING.

The big issue for the HE is that it is the biggest single landlord. Up to now the money was issued but via electronic means came directly back to them. Under this single payment proposal it will now be paid directly to the householder along with all their other payments. The HE, alone with every other land lord will have quite a job getting it off them.

[BelfastVI]

Blah, Blah, Blah

Change the record, man

Asking prices are still being slashed across the board week after week, until this changes prices will never stabilise

Going by this report this is not across the board.

[2buyornot2buy]

The big issue for the HE is that it is the biggest single landlord. Up to now the money was issued but via electronic means came directly back to them. Under this single payment proposal it will now be paid directly to the householder along with all their other payments. The HE, alone with every other land lord will have quite a job getting it off them.

Its been paid this way for a number of years already.

[Shotoflight]

However Lisburn, South Belfast and Mid and south down stand out. They increased the by the least, in percentage terms during the period 2003 Q1 and the peak. They subsequently seem to have fallen the least since the peak.

So far.

This fragmented market thing, for a place as small as NI, has only so much mileage in it. There are more linkages in the overall picture than fragmentation. Yes we have rough areas and more salubrious areas, yes we have different house types, yes we have urban and rural. But there was little talk of fragmantation on the way up, apart from the obvious luxury pads, high demand areas and dumps (and even they were 'snapped up').

I fully expect the correction to seep from the very top and the very bottom into the middle market (which I believe is already happening) - be that by house type or location.

If the correction had have been a short sharp snap, this may not have been the case. But it wasn't and won't be, and the machinegun fire is now being directed at the areas and types once thought to be immune from the flak. It's the continuing length of this correction as much as the severity that is catching out the nice people and the nice houses. And this part has some catching up to do.

[pajd]

BBc 5 0clock news radio ulster. Conor Cooke director ups v Alan Bridle Bank of Ireland - presented as 2 experts.

Connor - confidence is back, appetite is back, sales up, viewings up - viewings into the thousands - can barely cope, affordability, run off their feet, but would like to see more finance and 95% deals.

So thousands of viewings but he still wants 95% mortgages. Why is that? None of your viweings turning into actual sales then?

[2buyornot2buy]

No problem, although I normally get told off for making any reference to peak prices.

Going by the UUJ NI, on average is down 45%. The areas I mentioned are down between 35% and 55%. They were by no means immune to the drops. However Lisburn, South Belfast and Mid and south down stand out. They increased the by the least, in percentage terms during the period 2003 Q1 and the peak. They subsequently seem to have fallen the least since the peak. This of course makes some sense. Over the last year, even allowing for the continuing fall in apartment prices and the repos in these areas, the prices have held up and even increased, if the figures are reflective.

Volume

During the Peak of 2007 volume, as recorded by the UUJ Sample was 7,400.

In 2009 the sample size was 42% of the 2007 Volume

In 2010 the sample size was 48% of the 2007 Volume

In 2011 the sample size was 55% of the 2007 Volume

South Belfast went from Q1 2003 £135,500 TO Q2 2007 £302,500 AND NOW Q4 2011 £224,000

I think South Belfast has much further to go. I think those big detached house are skewing the average and always will.

As you say transactions are around half those of “peak”.

[Shotoflight]

So thousands of viewings but he still wants 95% mortgages. Why is that? None of your viweings turning into actual sales then?

Sadly for EA's and vendors banks now actually check if people can afford the repayments, and many can't - never mind scrape up a 5% deposit. For those that can, there's co-ownership.

The cheap and easy money where everyone and his dog got a mortgage just isn't coming back at whatever deposit level and whatever percentage level or through some new 'innovative' product. The tap has been turned off. That train has left. Responsible lending and diligent checks are the new norm.

Adapt or die.

[2buyornot2buy]

Sadly for EA's and vendors banks now actually check if people can afford the repayments, and many can't - never mind scrape up a 5% deposit. For those that can, there's co-ownership.

The cheap and easy money where everyone and his dog got a mortgage just isn't coming back at whatever deposit level and whatever percentage level or through some new 'innovative' product. The tap has been turned off. That train has left. Responsible lending and diligent checks are the new norm.

Adapt or die.

I don't know shoto, I'm still seeing 95% mortgages becoming more common with Northern and 5X being available with 4X being the norm. Reckless lending IMPO.

[Shotoflight]

I don't know shoto, I'm still seeing 95% mortgages becoming more common with Northern and 5X being available with 4X being the norm. Reckless lending IMPO.

http://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/business/business-news/northern-bank-to-close-more-branches-as-losses-hit-217m-16115983.html

"However, personal lending was up by 2% on 2010, which Mr Mallon said was due to improved mortgage products".

2% YOY increase with limited market share, from a low base and not necessarily all on mortgages - and mickey mouse interest rates. There will allways be suitable cases for 95% ers I suppose - and perhaps the bank is placing too much credibility on 'secure' public sector jobs (watch this space). Whatever, I think you'll find many who would have got one of these and worse 4 or 5 yrs ago will be shown the door now. There are still good risks and good bets for the banks out there - just much fewer and more care is taken to identify.

Not that I place too much credibility with the banks, Northern included, who are perversely under pressure to lend from the govt.

And with confidence and sentiment poor if people don't want to buy a house no matter how 'attractive' the banks make it for them (given their role in all of this) then it is for the most part irrelevant - apart from the effect of storing up even more trouble down the line.

I think the EA fraternity are barking up the wrong tree with this one.

Average salary £22k. Average price £137k.

I love the way they all say with hindsight prices were too high and couldn't continue. Do any of them have any foresight?

Ps, I don't doubt what you say and you are right of course it is reckless. It is also a sign of a disfunctional 'market' and, as far as I'm concerned, it's not the answer.

It's an attempt to ringfence and put a firebreak round the housing market from the stormy economy - it wont work and a high price will be paid down the line.

Edited February 10, 2012 by Shotoflight