B B C Breakfast With Declan 25.10.07

[TWOTREES]

30-40 nominal

FP - on Sky News back in mid September you said that you expected small falls in property prices next year and that you expected that to continue for several years (I seem to remember you mentioning 3% for next year) - have you changed your view since then or will that actually equate to 40% nominal drop within 5 years?

[Killer Bunny]

FP - on Sky News back in mid September you said that you expected small falls in property prices next year and that you expected that to continue for several years (I seem to remember you mentioning 3% for next year)

Not quite.

1. I didn't say 3%. I said small fall next year and this will carry on for a number of years. I wanted to say will get bigger but didn't have the opportunity.

2. I said 25% on BBC with Evan Davis BEFORE the credit crunch.

3. Due to CC, happy to forecast 30-40% in 4-6 years.

The asset class of res prop will need at least this to bring back to LT trend.

On verra.

fp

[Killer Bunny]

,,,you really have to be able to back it up with a projection for the impact on the economy and unemployment.

Certainly not wishful. I do not wish a crash - it will however happen. I didn't wish for a boom either but it happened.

I see your case however I don't need specifics - just that it will be painful and unemp will rise, as will personal and corp bankruptcies etc

I do expect 00s of 000s of extra unemployed.

Last time saw 300k repos -more than doublye likely this time, of which BTL will be > 250k alone!

Recession - > 50% proby. Could go either way. I do think US is in recession right now.

cheers

fp