HovelinHove Posted April 19, 2017 Share Posted April 19, 2017 18 hours ago, munchkjn said: When China blows, we are all in the sh1t. Having said that China is run by some pretty clever people who aren't just the usual PPE 'trained', weasel-word brigade. They have engineers and scientists making long term, strategic decisions at the top level. You are right though, NZ is a small country (Finland sized) and its stuck out in the Pacific Ocean and used to being self sufficient. Auckland prices have increased dramatically over the last few years but I do wonder whether Aucks really is a bubble as so many state or whether it was previously undervalued and it has now slightly overshot. As I said the land value per m2 is roughly akin to semi-desirable suburbs in the North of England, which doesn't sound as bad when you put it in those terms. International house price comparisons don't take into account the quality of the actual product just the "house price". NZ is still a popular destination for migrants due to its natural beauty, relatively strong economy, innate resilience, english language and western culture. Take a look at a graph of world population over time and you'll see there is a looming problem. A nice, quiet, stable, empty country like NZ is only going to continue to attract migrants from all around the world. I'm sure you know all this which is why you are planning to head out in the future It's more to do with family as my wife is from Auckland, but we are currently priced out, and yes, it is a lovely place. WRT China...are you serious?! They are doing exactly the same as the US did in noughties and Japan did in the 90s...taking on more and more debt to keep the bubble inflated...there is nothing intelligent about that! Personally I think mass immigration from the third world has proved a disaster for once civilized countries. Why should we have to suffer for all those who are incapable of controlling their populations. With robots we don't really need cheap labor anymore either. I think the backlash against the open borders policies of the progressive movement is well underway (Brexit, Trump etc), and it will definitely have a positive effect on house prices if you want them to go down. New Zealand won't be far behind Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HovelinHove Posted April 20, 2017 Share Posted April 20, 2017 (edited) More details today, but looks to be a sensible approach. Not sure it will have a huge impact as I think most of the Toronto growth is from home grown "demand" especially in the SFH market, but it may put the breaks on the condo market for a while. I would expect the market to grow more slowly now, but SFH to still see double digit growth, especially in cities that are commutable and are lagging behind. http://www.cbc.ca/beta/news/canada/toronto/kathleen-wynne-housing-market-home-prices-rent-control-1.4076283 Edited April 20, 2017 by HovelinHove Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dean Posted April 20, 2017 Share Posted April 20, 2017 8 minutes ago, HovelinHove said: More details today, but looks to be a sensible approach. Not sure it will have a huge impact as I think most of the Toronto growth is from home grown "demand" especially in the SFH market, but it may put the breaks on the condo market for a while. I would expect the market to grow more slowly now, but SFH to still see double digit growth, especially in cities that are commutable and are lagging behind. http://www.cbc.ca/beta/news/canada/toronto/kathleen-wynne-housing-market-home-prices-rent-control-1.4076283 I was just about to post this myself. Personally, happy about the rent control stuff, because I will probably be renting for a little while 2-3 years to build up the savings pot some more. It worries me that from afar Toronto feels like watching London all over again. The other measures foreign buyers tax etc, it just feels like, will have a slowing effect, but won't bring down prices per se, this is pretty much what happened in Vancouver, where currently everything currently seems to be just stagnated, until you have people needing to sell, then price falls will not happen. As you say in particular regarding Single Family Homes, the fact that myself and my GF, who will both be earning decent/ok wages in TO ( by the looks of things so far ) would be borderline on mortgage affordability for Oshawa and the surrounding areas ( even with 50% down payment ) suggests that something fishy/silly is going on in the SFH market. Ok fair enough the mortgage terms we have been looking at are about 12-13 year maximum term, so we could stretch further if we needed to, but, I am incredibly reluctant to take on debt on a longer term. I believe the SFH problems are being caused by people just saying "what is the maximum possible I can borrow with the lowest monthly payments" and getting insane 30 year mortgage terms at super low rates on five year fixes. All the above said, it is still cheaper like for like than London and the surrounding areas and better quality in size terms. Globally, high house prices driven by loose credit standards are a disease, a crack up boom of epic proportions. Without raising the interest rates to normal circa 5-10% levels, I can't see anything changing in a major fashion anywhere. However any measures by any government at this stage, have to be welcomed, even as a short term fix. I am also encouraged that Canada seems to have a slightly different attitude to the UK regarding House Prices to the moon and at least attempts to rein it in. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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