Vancouver and Toronto will blow to 'complete and utter smithereens'

[AvoidDebt]

Love it.

Calling out the criminals. Add ponzi London to the list too. This guy gets it. Crime on an unprecedented scale. 

Ex-Wall Street trader predicts Vancouver housing market implosion

Marc Cohodes says housing markets in Vancouver and Toronto will blow to 'complete and utter smithereens'

http://www.cbc.ca/player/play/899968067635

[Freki]

Alright, there is a bubble agreed ...

But what keeps the bubble alive? Market liquidity? So unless there is a massive recession in China, what will force those people to sell.

Is there much flipping that allows the money to be laundered?

[spyguy]

2 minutes ago, Freki said:

Alright, there is a bubble agreed ...

But what keeps the bubble alive? Market liquidity? So unless there is a massive recession in China, what will force those people to sell.

Is there much flipping that allows the money to be laundered?

Its not Chinse economic growth, its Chinese money laundering.

 

[Si1]

On Carney's Canadian legacy:

 

http://www.financialpost.com/m/wp/news/economy/blog.html?b=business.financialpost.com/news/economy/canadas-housing-bubble-can-be-traced-to-mark-carney-and-his-bias-for-easy-policy-jared-dillian

 

 

[Errol]

Vancouver and Toronto will blow to 'complete and utter smithereens'

 

Steady on, I don't think North Korea has that sort of capability at the present time.

 

[crazypabs]

1 hour ago, Freki said:

Alright, there is a bubble agreed ...

But what keeps the bubble alive? Market liquidity? So unless there is a massive recession in China, what will force those people to sell.

Is there much flipping that allows the money to be laundered?

Aren't the Chinese restricting the flow of money out of the country?

[billybong]

2 hours ago, AvoidDebt said:

Love it.

Calling out the criminals. Add ponzi London to the list too. This guy gets it. Crime on an unprecedented scale. 

Ex-Wall Street trader predicts Vancouver housing market implosion

Marc Cohodes says housing markets in Vancouver and Toronto will blow to 'complete and utter smithereens'

http://www.cbc.ca/player/play/899968067635

Whichever city that is behind the CBC interviewer it looks like an awful overbuilt dump.

Whichever country Carney touches seems to be blighted by greed, criminality and overseas money laundering.

Edited April 13, 2017 by billybong

[spyguy]

44 minutes ago, crazypabs said:

Aren't the Chinese restricting the flow of money out of the country?

They are trying to now.

Seems to have the opposite effect - i.e. people are getting more desperate to get money out.

 

[StAlex]

How do the income multiples compare in these two cities to London? 

[billybong]

25 minutes ago, StAlex said:

How do the income multiples compare in these two cities to London? 

.

https://www.numbeo.com/property-investment/

London 25.34

Vancouver 13.68

Toronto 8.76

I don't know the exact basis for the figures or how accurate it is but I guess it's at least reasonably indicative of the relative multiples.  

Edited April 13, 2017 by billybong

[billybong]

Slightly off the Canada topic the link below is a useful one for comparing price/income multiples worldwide and to compare loan affordability amongst other things.  

London being 8th highest out of 257 in the multiple league and pretty high on the Loan Affordabilty Index as well (the higher in the leagues the less affordable it is).  

London's bedfellows in the table are pretty surprising and some might say rather revealing
 

https://www.numbeo.com/property-investment/rankings.jsp

 

For some reason the figures seem to differ slightly from the earlier numbeo link but apparently not enough to make much difference.

Edited April 13, 2017 by billybong

[maverick73]

Hmmm... affordable housing.. I may migrate over... At one point I was looking towards living on Mars ?

[BorrowToLeech]

On 4/13/2017 at 9:54 AM, Si1 said:

On Carney's Canadian legacy:

 

http://www.financialpost.com/m/wp/news/economy/blog.html?b=business.financialpost.com/news/economy/canadas-housing-bubble-can-be-traced-to-mark-carney-and-his-bias-for-easy-policy-jared-dillian

 

 

Nothing to do with Carney, it's a housing shortage:

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/sec.theglobeandmail.com/news/british-columbia/vancouvers-housing-shortage-worsened-by-rental-crackdown/article34197665/%3Fservice%3Damp

 

http://www.cknw.com/2017/04/03/inefficient-use-of-land-to-blame-for-vancouvers-housing-shortage-says-new-report/

It's always a housing shortage. 

[Si1]

20 minutes ago, DrBuyToLeech said:

Nothing to do with Carney, it's a housing shortage:

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/sec.theglobeandmail.com/news/british-columbia/vancouvers-housing-shortage-worsened-by-rental-crackdown/article34197665/%3Fservice%3Damp

 

http://www.cknw.com/2017/04/03/inefficient-use-of-land-to-blame-for-vancouvers-housing-shortage-says-new-report/

It's always a housing shortage. 

My bad

[giggler000]

I'd like to gloat since they killed my visa app with 280K bagdadi's waiting with me but I still like there housing, large plots, rooms able to swing a cat etc.

[HovelinHove]

Vancouver is the city in the background. It is overbuilt, but it is a stunning city.

In my city, Barrie, which is a commuter town for Toronto, house prices have risen 37% in one year on high volumes. Every house is selling over asking within days of listing, sometimes by 30-40%. Inventory is now down to less than a month. It is completely insane. Everyone says it will go bang. It will, which is why I'm thinking of selling up. However, my home is a 4 bed house in the older part of town. It has a huge lot, a pool, and a granny flat. I might get 400,000 pounds. I couldn't get a fecking shed for that in Sussex, where I come from, and yet we are about the same distance from Toronto as Brighton is from London. Unlike Vancouver, Toronto has a multi-dimensional, huge economy as is becoming a global financial center (number 7 or 8 I think). Be interesting to see if it really does go pop here...never did in Brighton.

[Exiled Canadian]

58 minutes ago, HovelinHove said:

Vancouver is the city in the background. It is overbuilt, but it is a stunning city.

In my city, Barrie, which is a commuter town for Toronto, house prices have risen 37% in one year on high volumes. Every house is selling over asking within days of listing, sometimes by 30-40%. Inventory is now down to less than a month. It is completely insane. Everyone says it will go bang. It will, which is why I'm thinking of selling up. However, my home is a 4 bed house in the older part of town. It has a huge lot, a pool, and a granny flat. I might get 400,000 pounds. I couldn't get a fecking shed for that in Sussex, where I come from, and yet we are about the same distance from Toronto as Brighton is from London. Unlike Vancouver, Toronto has a multi-dimensional, huge economy as is becoming a global financial center (number 7 or 8 I think). Be interesting to see if it really does go pop here...never did in Brighton.

I wouldn't sell...your chance of calling it right is minimal (this shit is totally random and Carney wants to be PM). Your family will always need a house and Barrie is a nice place to live.

[HovelinHove]

Yay, someone who appreciates Barrie. It is lovely here, much nicer than Toronto or Hamilton etc. Our issue is moving back to the UK for family reasons. But going to stick it out here for a few more years now, who knows, if things carry on like this we may be able to afford to by a house in Sussex!

[spyguy]

7 hours ago, HovelinHove said:

Yay, someone who appreciates Barrie. It is lovely here, much nicer than Toronto or Hamilton etc. Our issue is moving back to the UK for family reasons. But going to stick it out here for a few more years now, who knows, if things carry on like this we may be able to afford to by a house in Sussex!

One thing that everyone seems to miss in the South of the UK at the mo is - jobs. You might have missed it too.

There are very few well paying jobs in he S0uth now. 15+ years ago financial services used to underpin most towns. name a town, and the top 2 or 3 employees would be financial, who propped up the rest of the local jobs.

These jobs have pretty much all gone.

The only thing propping up the South, like the rest of he UK, is about 40% of families on tax credits.

 

[Tempus]

9 minutes ago, spyguy said:

The only thing propping up the South, like the rest of he UK, is about 40% of families on tax credits.

There is also a very buoyant and affluent BOMAD and BOGAG. From the generation that could actually buy their houses using actual work. 

[Dean]

This would be pretty great for me, if it were to implode ( given that I will be out in Canada from about September of this year  ) while I really want a HPC in the UK for my family and friends who are priced out, my personal plan has always been to move to North America, which is where I am about a couple of months out of each year, so the recently bearish news articles are good news for me. 

I have noticed anecdotally, that the Toronto bubble, seems to have gone into overdrive since about Summer of last year, I haven't found any good data sources for the Canadian market, so only have websites like Realtor.Ca to go by, Vancouver I have not been watching as closely. 

Not looking to buy for about one or two years and that is dependent on prices feeling right/wherever I end up settling, so a 2018 bubble pop semi-posited by some http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/top-business-stories/torontos-housing-bubble-when-the-stinky-stuff-hits-the-fan/article34694950/  would be pretty perfect timing. 

One thing I have noticed, which is vastly different to the UK, is that I rarely see a Canadian news article selling high prices as a good thing, sentiment being such a big factor in a crash this could be important, I often read their news outlets discussing the housing market, as, a market, subject to rises and falls. Although, for balance, I do see in the comments on such articles, a lot of people have the view "we see articles every year saying the Canadian bubble will burst and it never does". 

I do think, even with taxation aimed at curbing speculation, that the only way to see a real correction, would be in the event of a base rate rise, as the current psychology I am hearing from friends, is, borrow as much as you can at current low rates, buy a property at any price, its all about the monthly payments, Toronto also seems to have a supply problem in terms of "single unit family homes" and freeholds, as I am guessing most people are not interested in apartments with ever growing monthly service fees. 

I am liking hearing about "HovelInHoves" experience in Barrie, as I did look at Barrie, but the commute to Downtown TO, seems pretty serious. Maybe set up a Canadian branch of HPC with an obligatory Tim Horton's inside it 

[Guest TheBlueCat]

On 13/04/2017 at 6:05 AM, billybong said:

Whichever city that is behind the CBC interviewer it looks like an awful overbuilt dump.

Whichever country Carney touches seems to be blighted by greed, criminality and overseas money laundering.

I don't think it's either of Toronto or Vancouver, which is weird. Parts of Toronto are becoming overbuilt up in my opinion, although nothing like the scale of New York, but Vancouver, nose-bleed house prices aside, is still a very attractive city.

[Guest TheBlueCat]

14 hours ago, HovelinHove said:

Vancouver is the city in the background. It is overbuilt, but it is a stunning city.

Really? I struggled to identify the view on street view. Where do you think it was filmed from approximately?

[billybong]

50 minutes ago, TheBlueCat said:

I don't think it's either of Toronto or Vancouver, which is weird. Parts of Toronto are becoming overbuilt up in my opinion, although nothing like the scale of New York, but Vancouver, nose-bleed house prices aside, is still a very attractive city.

I thought it might be Ottawa as CBC apparently has headquarters there but likely it has studios with views all over the place in Canada.  

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Canadian_Broadcasting_Corporation

Whichever city it is in saying it looked like an overbuilt dump I was judging on the admittedly narrow image in the background of the youtube video.  Without the yachts in the foreground to pretty it up it looked very grim - and of course people have to live and work there.  It didn't seem to be much of an advert.

The view seemed so reminiscent of the old images of soviet architecture.  Of course beauty is the beholder's opinion and it's also quite possible that behind those buildings and out of image there's a very attractive city in terms of architecture and so on.

 

 

 

Edited April 15, 2017 by billybong

[Guest TheBlueCat]

2 minutes ago, billybong said:

I thought it might be Ottawa as CBC apparently has headquarters there but likely it has studios with views all over the place in Canada.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Canadian_Broadcasting_Corporation

Whichever city it is in saying it looked like an overbuilt dump I was judging on the admittedly narrow image in the background of the youtube video.  Without the yachts in the foreground to pretty it up it looked very grim - and of course people have to live and work there.  It didn't seem to be much of an advert.

The view seemed so reminiscent of the old images of soviet architecture.  Of course beauty is the beholder's opinion and it's also quite possible that behind those buildings and out of image there's a very attractive city in terms of architecture and so on.

Definitely not Ottawa, that has very little high rise. There are some parts of Toronto that do look a bit soviet but there isn't a single dense block like that visible from the lake anywhere that I can think of. This is more typical Vancouver high-ish density housing:

https://goo.gl/maps/YiRjCRK9ABx

Not particularly pretty I'd say, and not worth the insane prices, but not awful either. The scarier thing about Vancouver from my perspective is how a 2 bed duplex somewhere like this will go for 1.5M CAD:

https://goo.gl/maps/8M7uLCANZW72

That I find truly shocking!