Oxford

[Edhutch]

Edhutch, I understand exactly what's happening. Finally people that agree with you are here. But volume of posts on this site is meaningless as I'm sure you'll know.

Falling Buzzard, I really hope for your sake you do understand, because if your buying agent is telling you nothing is selling in N. Oxford then you aren't getting very up to the minute information!

[thehowler]

At a rough count, there are 13 estate agent offices in Summertown.

No post office. One horrible pub. A wine bar. One scraggy playground for kids. No fish and chip shop.

And 13 estate agents.

It could be that the sale of family houses to wealthy people has become an important industry for the local area. That industry is perhaps independent of normal house buying issues for purchasers - quality of local services, employment opportunities, bedrock of first time buyers, standard of housing etc. It is perhaps unaffected by rising unemployment, ineluctable rise in interest rates, pay freezes and escalating taxation, dismal national economic situation etc. It is perhaps skewed by massive shortage of available housing throughout the city - 22% of homes let or owned as social housing, 4,600 households on council housing waiting list, all way above regional average - a shambolic and perhaps intentionally awful transport system which effectively segregates North Oxford from the other city quadrants, and most of all, by a weird local psychology - known as OPD, or Oxford Personality Disorder - which manifests itself in pinched faced social awkwardness, delusions of grandeur, unhelpfully large IQs and the worst haircuts in the UK.

North Oxford is a village, for people who think they're not the kind of people who live in villages.

Prices might be rising, but that doesn't stop this being a very silly place to live. And Newton had a point. I wouldn't bat an eyelid if prices crashed 30-40% over the next year or two. Who could say it should be any other way?

[Edhutch]

At a rough count, there are 13 estate agent offices in Summertown.

No post office. One horrible pub. A wine bar. One scraggy playground for kids. No fish and chip shop.

And 13 estate agents.

It could be that the sale of family houses to wealthy people has become an important industry for the local area. That industry is perhaps independent of normal house buying issues for purchasers - quality of local services, employment opportunities, bedrock of first time buyers, standard of housing etc. It is perhaps unaffected by rising unemployment, ineluctable rise in interest rates, pay freezes and escalating taxation, dismal national economic situation etc. It is perhaps skewed by massive shortage of available housing throughout the city - 22% of homes let or owned as social housing, 4,600 households on council housing waiting list, all way above regional average - a shambolic and perhaps intentionally awful transport system which effectively segregates North Oxford from the other city quadrants, and most of all, by a weird local psychology - known as OPD, or Oxford Personality Disorder - which manifests itself in pinched faced social awkwardness, delusions of grandeur, unhelpfully large IQs and the worst haircuts in the UK.

North Oxford is a village, for people who think they're not the kind of people who live in villages.

Prices might be rising, but that doesn't stop this being a very silly place to live. And Newton had a point. I wouldn't bat an eyelid if prices crashed 30-40% over the next year or two. Who could say it should be any other way?

Agree that there are too many estate agents on the current turnover of properties. N. Oxford, is safe, green, fairly quiet, free of pubs, chip shops etc because councillors who themselves often live here have deliberately kept it that way for the sake of the residents. It's the schools, the commutability and the educated upper middle classness that keeps people here. I joked about kids learning Sanskrit but a playmate of my daughter was heard to utter 'koax' when asked by her father what noise a frog makes (a ref. to Aristophanes' The Frogs). The little girl in question was three years old! Frightfully precious not to say precocious, but there's a certain kind of educated Englishness which just doesn't exist in many places any more. You might think it silly (and in some ways it probably is), but many of us want our children to grow up to be educated, literate, thinking people and N. Oxford is an ideal environment for this. If you don't get it, fine, but there is clearly still a big demand for all this, hence prices on the up again.

[thehowler]

It's the schools, the commutability and the educated upper middle classness that keeps people here...

Oh EdHutch, that's a shocking case of OPD you've got - and I bet you're proud of it.

commutability - er, is that the same as saying there are no jobs here, or, sorry, no jobs that would pay enough for people to buy a house in north Oxford? A delicious example of positive thinking.

Perhaps for you it's all wood-panelled dining rooms, high table, dancing dons and butter dripping from crumpets onto faded passages by Milton? I understand the myth, EdHutch, I've been exploring it for years. But I can't revel in the parochial, retrograde smugness you exude. To me the idea of "educated englishness" seems rather limited, irrelevant, misguided - and erroneous. For one thing, to suggest the area is anything but international in character is idiotic. You describe the patch as though it's some theme park for Caractacus Potts types, bumbling around in their basements. But to me, they've all been chased out by you "opinion makers" and the 13 agents of doom. You see, money has been a dirty word in Oxford for a very long time. For me, it still is, but for you educated englishers it clearly isn't.

[thehowler]

On reflection...'pologies, I've no right to attack you for your vision of the area.

It's a subjective business, this house price analysis...

[fallingbuzzard]

Vision being the appropriate word.

On reflection...'pologies, I've no right to attack you for your vision of the area.

It's a subjective business, this house price analysis...

[Edhutch]

Vision being the appropriate word.

Clearly your buying agents are on valium if they can't see what is happening. Because I am nosy (and too lazy to unsubscribe from email circulars) I still get the mailshots from the Summertown Savills. Their latest is quite an interesting read:

"This year has seen a positive change in buyer sentiment and the market now looks very different from the gloom of September 2008. Oxford is among those areas that has remained buoyant with a record number of sales agreed in July. We have also seen a 34 per cent rise in transactions to the end of September compared to 2008, and viewing numbers have returned to 2006-07 levels.

House prices in Oxfordshire have proved resilient. For realistically priced properties, we are generally exchanging at close to guide price; for the best houses, competitive bidding has returned. We are seeing good interest at the top end of the market from South East Asia, benefiting hugely from our strong presence in that region.

Our commitment to our buyers is to ensure the best choice, delivered in the most efficient manner and the dividend to our sellers is a professionally conducted, successful sale.

We hope that you enjoy this selection of houses currently available for sale and would be delighted to discuss the local market in greater detail with you at any time.

Giles Lawton

Head of Office

Summertown Oxford"

A friend has just exchanged on a large house in Kingston Rd, roomy but rather tired, with lots of scope for being spruced up. The asking price was £985K and he is paying £980K (!) Will be v. interesting to see the Land Registry figures for Sept. and October for N. Oxford transactions.

Edited October 8, 2009 by Edhutch

[thehowler]

A friend has just exchanged on a large house in Kingston Rd, roomy but rather tired, with lots of scope for being spruced up. The asking price was £985K and he is paying £980K (!) Will be v. interesting to see the Land Registry figures for Sept. and October for N. Oxford transactions.

Is that the house up by the Anchor? If so, it came on the market at £1.1mill about four months back and was the cover story on the Ox Times property section in desperate bid for publicity...

[fallingbuzzard]

I'm absolutely certain its that house. And they've probably overpayed by £120-150k in my agents opinion.

[Edhutch]

Falling Buzzard your 'agent'/alter ego is having a laugh. Another bidder on this house (yes The Anchor one) bid v. Close to asking (950k). The fair priced stuff is selling fast (look at the 995k bainton rd house that went sstc within a week of going up recently). You are just deluding yourself and your comments reveal that you have no understanding of the current state of the market in N. Oxford.

[thehowler]

Yes indeed, freakish times with pricing in OX2 - something weird and wicked is afoot.

I've been watching Frenchay Rd for a while. Three storey semi used as student housing sold there in the summer for around £900K, after a series of drops. Builders came in and fitted new bathrooms and a kitchen and it came back on at £1.2 or thereabouts a few weeks ago. It's now under offer.

I remember thinking at the time that it was odd the developer was confident of a big return, given that the market seemed moribund. Why were they banking on there being a surge in September?

Some 'family' has bought that house, but that family was not around four or five months ago to get it for £300K less.

Four/five bed places that were static and price-dropping in the Summer are shifting at prices close to peak, and quickly. So where's that influx of new money come from, so suddenly?

And it's not from London. I've got buddies trying to sell there with no nibbles.

A paranoid is someone in possession of all the facts...

[fallingbuzzard]

mini-bubble from QE going to the wrong place, into leveraged assets (houses and shares) rather than the real economy. good news for anyone looking to buy a house in the future.

Yes indeed, freakish times with pricing in OX2 - something weird and wicked is afoot.

I've been watching Frenchay Rd for a while. Three storey semi used as student housing sold there in the summer for around £900K, after a series of drops. Builders came in and fitted new bathrooms and a kitchen and it came back on at £1.2 or thereabouts a few weeks ago. It's now under offer.

I remember thinking at the time that it was odd the developer was confident of a big return, given that the market seemed moribund. Why were they banking on there being a surge in September?

Some 'family' has bought that house, but that family was not around four or five months ago to get it for £300K less.

Four/five bed places that were static and price-dropping in the Summer are shifting at prices close to peak, and quickly. So where's that influx of new money come from, so suddenly?

And it's not from London. I've got buddies trying to sell there with no nibbles.

A paranoid is someone in possession of all the facts...

[capability]

I expected that there would be some exit form the BTLrs. If there is it doesn't seem to be on a scale large enough to deflate prices. the conundrum of the shortage in houses in OX2 is probably at play. If anything the trend of conversion of student houses to family residences as with the Frenchay road property indicates further gentrification of OX2 (if that was possible)..

Edited October 10, 2009 by capability

[capability]

There certainly is something abnormal afoot. Actually I thing it is starting to become clear. There were probably a large number of wealthy individuals who have been renting in expectation of the crash. It would appear now in OX2 the prices will not 'crash' .. and the spectators are returning to play the game.

There is a house on Chalfont Road £995k B & B which has sold in a week.. a price which for the size is matching the peak. I three storey four bed in Stone Meadow has just gone under offer.. asking price was £640k... this is setting a new level for these Berkeley homes houses.. and Stone Meadow is not even the best of the locations compared to rest of Waterways..

We have bottomed and at the most negative we shall get stagnation next year. Falling Buzzard.. I think the time to swoop was in February 2009..

Edited October 10, 2009 by capability

[fallingbuzzard]

A strange explanation of things becoming clear. Wealthy individuals renting in expectation of a crash? More likely that printed money is chasing assets because of a belief in future inflation, and banks are lending to low LTV consumers with better ability to pay off debts without lending to business as was intended. I won't explain the corollaries to you because I know that you Oxford people are all supposed to be very smart albeit not quite as wealthy as me.

There certainly is something abnormal afoot. Actually I thing it is starting to become clear. There were probably a large number of wealthy individuals who have been renting in expectation of the crash. It would appear now in OX2 the prices will not 'crash' .. and the spectators are returning to play the game.

There is a house on Chalfont Road £995k Breakfast & Breakfast which has sold in a week.. a price which for the size is matching the peak. I three storey four bed in Stone Meadow has just gone under offer.. asking price was £640k... this is setting a new level for these Berkeley homes houses.. and Stone Meadow is not even the best of the locations compared to rest of Waterways..

We have bottomed and at the most negative we shall get stagnation next year. Falling Buzzard.. I think the time to swoop was in February 2009..

[ReJoyce]

There certainly is something abnormal afoot. Actually I thing it is starting to become clear. There were probably a large number of wealthy individuals who have been renting in expectation of the crash. It would appear now in OX2 the prices will not 'crash' .. and the spectators are returning to play the game.

...

We have bottomed and at the most negative we shall get stagnation next year. Falling Buzzard.. I think the time to swoop was in February 2009..

+1

Back in the late winter / early spring sentiment still pointed to more falls. As that has turned around people are coming back into the market and because of the shortage of properties and the ramping in the area prices are remarkably robust (read: ludicrously high by any sensible standard).

regards

J

[thehowler]

+1

Back in the late winter / early spring sentiment still pointed to more falls. As that has turned around...

High end houses might be selling now but it's way too soon to call the end of price drops for OX2. My peers are already struggling buckwise, unemployment's rising, rates have to go up and the election will mark the end of QE.

This is an aberration and might just be a sign that the uni is buying back in.

[fallingbuzzard]

If you read some HIPs for OX2, and I've probably read every one that I could for the last six months, you'll find that the property heavy colleges are selling out. Not stupid either since its foolish to have too much of your investment in depreciating (yet overpriced) illiquid assets held in a devaluing currency. Its a simple choice. Why own houses when you can create your own buildings at a fraction of the unit cost and provide a genuine legacy for the future.

+1

Back in the late winter / early spring sentiment still pointed to more falls. As that has turned around...

High end houses might be selling now but it's way too soon to call the end of price drops for OX2. My peers are already struggling buckwise, unemployment's rising, rates have to go up and the election will mark the end of QE.

This is an aberration and might just be a sign that the uni is buying back in.

[thehowler]

I see Trinity has just dropped £24mill on the Dome...

[fallingbuzzard]

Exactly

I see Trinity has just dropped £24mill on the Dome...

[Edhutch]

+1

Back in the late winter / early spring sentiment still pointed to more falls. As that has turned around...

High end houses might be selling now but it's way too soon to call the end of price drops for OX2. My peers are already struggling buckwise, unemployment's rising, rates have to go up and the election will mark the end of QE.

This is an aberration and might just be a sign that the uni is buying back in.

You keep telling yourselves that!

Colleges buy and sell properties all the time, though it is true that cash-strapped Colleges have ditched stuff needed a lot of refurbishment recently. But guess what? Spec. developers have bought them , done them up and flipped them within 6 months!

James Penney and others are starting to post the dreaded ('if you are considering selling please do they are going like hotcakes' circulars). They weren't bothering to do this 6 months ago. Lots of sold signs in Navigation Way (nr Phil and Jim Primary School) have just appeared on the houses themselves (these are mid-range/cheap for N. Oxford, i.e. 450--600K). So much for Falling buzzard's theory that only the expensive stuff is selling (and, wait a minute, didn't he claim that £1 mill. plus stuff wasn't selling either last week!) FB doesn't have a clue and every word he posts bespeaks desperate denial of what is happening in the real world atm, rather than in his imagination ( or that of his mysterious 'buying agent'!)

PS Not sure what on earth Trinity CAMBRIDGE buying the rental rights to the Dome has to do with it other than Trinity arre clearly expecting low interest rates for a while (otherwise how would spending 24 mill. on arental rights which generated 842K last year make sense?

[FamilyGuy]

ame='thehowler' date='12 October 2009 - 12:39 PM' timestamp='1255347542' post='2190104']

You keep telling yourselves that!

Colleges buy and sell properties all the time, though it is true that cash-strapped Colleges have ditched stuff needed a lot of refurbishment recently. But guess what? Spec. developers have bought them , done them up and flipped them within 6 months!

James Penney and others are starting to post the dreaded ('if you are considering selling please do they are going like hotcakes' circulars). They weren't bothering to do this 6 months ago. Lots of sold signs in Navigation Way (nr Phil and Jim Primary School) have just appeared on the houses themselves (these are mid-range/cheap for N. Oxford, i.e. 450--600K). So much for Falling buzzard's theory that only the expensive stuff is selling (and, wait a minute, didn't he claim that £1 mill. plus stuff wasn't selling either last week!) FB doesn't have a clue and every word he posts bespeaks desperate denial of what is happening in the real world atm, rather than in his imagination ( or that of his mysterious 'buying agent'!)

PS Not sure what on earth Trinity CAMBRIDGE buying the rental rights to the Dome has to do with it other than Trinity arre clearly expecting low interest rates for a while (otherwise how would spending 24 mill. on arental rights which generated 842K last year make sense?

I'm not sure about your arguments as to why prices will now only go up in North Oxford.

So far:

1. North Oxford is a desirable area to live due to schools, demographic of locals and...

2. Inflation is on it's way, so buy now before your cash isn't worth as much

1 doesn't explain why you think prices will now only go up. I agree with you that North Oxford is the most desirable suburb of Oxford for the majority of people. However, this held true when prices were going down. If your argument is that demand from wealthy locals, commuters and foreign students will now always outstrip supplyI would also like to know why you think this is true. I agree that this is happening at the moment, but why do you think that it will hold true for the foreseeable future?

2 might be a reason for you - seems very dubious reason to bank a lot of money on it . If your money was in better returning (and hence more inflation proof) investments it may not be such a good idea - as pointed out by an earlier poster renting is much cheaper than buying in North Oxford

Edited October 13, 2009 by FamilyGuy

[pharm]

Colleges buy and sell properties all the time, though it is true that cash-strapped Colleges have ditched stuff needed a lot of refurbishment recently. But guess what? Spec. developers have bought them , done them up and flipped them within 6 months!

Further down the food chain, a number of the houses round us were snapped up by developers at what seemed to me at the time fairly toppy prices. Some have sold, and some have come back on the market after going Sold STC over the spring / summer.

PS Not sure what on earth Trinity CAMBRIDGE buying the rental rights to the Dome has to do with it other than Trinity arre clearly expecting low interest rates for a while (otherwise how would spending 24 mill. on arental rights which generated 842K last year make sense?

It's not as bad as that: The Independent claims 2008 rent was £1.5 million. The £842k figure comes from the income to Quintain alone, who held a 49% share in the holding company, but their press release says that Trinity bought all of the outstanding shares for £24million, of which Quintain received £11 million. Trinity have got their hands on a 6% yield which is fairly inflation proof to boot. Not bad going in the current climate.

It seems that supply is tighter than a gnat's whisker in Oxford, just as in the rest of the country, which is supportive of prices assuming availability of finance. The neutral / bearish view is that current pricing is a reflection of cash rich buyers deciding that they may as well buy now, and that given that there is a limited supply of said buyers, prices will probably grind lower over the next few years. The counterveiling influence is of course QE & the depreciation in the £ which is bringing in foreign buyers for whom the drop in the £ means the UK HPC has already happened. My personal suspicion is that 'prime' areas (of which N.Oxford is clearly one) will benefit disproportionately from the latter effect: I'm not sure I believe that Chinese / Far-eastern buyers are going to be buying up suburbian 3-bedders in the Midlands or the NE, but Kensington / Chelsea / N.Oxford? Sure.

[Edhutch]

I'm not sure about your arguments as to why prices will now only go up in North Oxford.

So far:

1. North Oxford is a desirable area to live due to schools, demographic of locals and...

2. Inflation is on it's way, so buy now before your cash isn't worth as much

1 doesn't explain why you think prices will now only go up. I agree with you that North Oxford is the most desirable suburb of Oxford for the majority of people. However, this held true when prices were going down. If your argument is that demand from wealthy locals, commuters and foreign students will now always outstrip supplyI would also like to know why you think this is true. I agree that this is happening at the moment, but why do you think that it will hold true for the foreseeable future?

2 might be a reason for you - seems very dubious reason to bank a lot of money on it . If your money was in better returning (and hence more inflation proof) investments it may not be such a good idea - as pointed out by an earlier poster renting is much cheaper than buying in North Oxford

1, Significant pent-up demand. In 2008 noone knew what was happening and everyone held off for fear of futher falls, the end of capitalism as we know it etc. The money is now returning to the market an a lot of people who were sitting on cash have been smoked out by the recent turn in the market/return of cautious optimism. The people with money/good jobs will do relatively well out of the current recession. Low interest rates for the next 18 months will help, too. I see continued £ devaluation in the short-medium term, inflation not kicking off until 2011.

2. Agree if you can find such investments (Swiss francs anyone?), but this is far easier said than done, esp. when it is your housing stash you are playing with. Money in the bank is losing out bigtime against property in the last 8 months (not only are you paying rent and getting minimal interest, but you are also falling behing as the housing indices pick up again).

I have said before that I don't see rapid increases ahead, just a slow but steady recovery with periods of stagnation. On recent evidence, I just don't see prices falling again in nominal terms for quite a while, whereas Falling Buzzard and co. seem to think that the 15-20% from Autun 07 to Jan 09 was just the start. I'm saying that the evidence of the market for the past 6 months is that that's as good as it gets guys. I will admit though that even I have been slightly surprised at just how strongly N. Oxford seems to be bouncing back. The truth is that money attracts money. My friends in West London tell me that the more desirable areas there have bottomed out and are starting to rise again so I guess that the upper middle classes are currently weathering the recession pretty well. I thought the point of the local boards was to give an impression of the local markets as they stand, but clearly others would prefer to make them an exercise in group denial. If the world stops doing what we think it ought to be doing then sometimes the best option is to admit what is happening, to work out why this is happening and to change tack or to formulate a defensive counter-strategy. Leaving ear-marked housing money in £s in the bank is just for mugs at the moment and certainly not a wise medium-term strategy.

[thehowler]

I thought the point of the local boards was to give an impression of the local markets as they stand, but clearly others would prefer to make them an exercise in group denial.

The boards serve all kind of rant purposes I reckon, Edhutch, largely subjective and usually governed by whether someone's bought or not in the last year. I've agreed with you in recent posts that the market is strong and rising at the mo - though I think it's shakier than you sometimes make out - but my personal slant is that it's disastrous that prices have reached these levels, ergo that's what I express in posts.

I was looking at 4/5 bedroom houses on Southmoor Rd four years ago at around the £550/600K mark. In the end I dropped out of a buy - trivial though it surely is in the scheme of the universal throb, I didn't fancy parking on the street. There were other reasons why I'm not fond of the street. Anyway, as you know, those same houses are now going for around £300K above that sum.

In market terms, it would have made a lot of sense to have bought one of those houses. But I still don't want to live there. A house I don't even want to live in has gone up by almost 50 percent over four years.

So, it's really not hard for me to imagine that house losing 50 percent of its value in the next few years. I see the price rises but when I look at the ungodly mess we're in I can't see the corollary between the two.

We differ in our anecdotal observations also. The guys I know who were in banking, creative media and management are all talking about digging their own veg. So it goes. We see in things the things we wish to see.

It could well be that you have the last laugh and prices continue to rise, level off, rise etc. In fact, I'd say it's likely, as I begin to suspect I'm caught in a longer epoch of predestined twists and turns that traps me in Oxford and robs me of the kind of habitat I wish to live in - another story. However, the levels of risk at this price level - and what you have yourself staked on your hunch proving right - are staggering. These risks and consequent pressures and social effects spawn all kinds of changes in the atmosphere and demography of the few streets in OX2 which I pace, and I think it's worth opining on these changes at times.