More Action By Another Group

[Alfie Moon]

It's slowly happening regardless of lack of awareness of the reasons why lower house prices can be a good thing. It's happening even if the majority, or those who've taken on big mortgages or those who own outright houses of high value prefer higher house prices.

Petrol prices are seeing some people my parents know not make the car journey they used to make to a club they belong to as frequently. Others who now have cars older than 3 years who always used to trade them in every 3 years. A rumour is going round not all is well for a landlord my parents are acquainted with who has 38 BTLs, who for years has never been shy about talking of his BTL success. They've been advised to avoid him because he's acting strangely. It could be an illness but I don't think so. Household energy bills on the rise again.

My parents own outright but support lower house prices. They know all the good reasons as do so many of us here.

You're not going to get that support from those who've already flicked the Vs to cautious HPC saver types and eagerly taken on a £1/4 million mortgage, either to buy for the first time or to trade up. Or from those who've already MEWed to give their kids a big deposit to pay over the odds in a 2006 market. Or from those with no kids and owning a valuable house. They have their own self-interest you can not break. They don't care for your reasons why. The market has to forcibly break them.

Shapps vile mates' mortgages. He'd prefer that to keep prices high, whilst base rates remain held at 0.5% five hundred year lows and mostly low SVRs for existing owners rather than have prices come down to prices younger people can afford to pay. It's breaking. Even the EAs are mostly against his idea like you say. Then we'll have a new batch of graduates coming out of university in a few years time loaded with tens of thousands of debt.

Yes, there is the choice for waiting for it to happen - but there isn't a 'natural' timescale on this, it isn't all down to economic fundamentals. For the last 25 years or so Economists have recognised more and more the importance that the discourse environment plays in financial/commercial markets and how there is a dynamic relationship involved in the way that the (traditional) economic fundamentals and the discourse environment interact with each other and help shape the overall way in which markets operate. It is very hard for small groups & the public to directly challenge and have significant impact on economic fundamentals. However, small groups, and the public can target and have a significant impact on the discourse environment much, much more easily. At a very basic level think about the impact of rumours on stocks and shares trading - amazing what one well put together rumour can do, and how it can interact and change the direction of economic fundamentals. The same can occur in the property market via its discourse environment. There are very good reasons to believe that we could, if we made the effort (and it doesn't require huge amounts of effort individually, and certainly very few resources - we already have our computers and access to the web) have a (very) significant impact on the property market discourse environment which will lead to significant impact on the markets participants behaviour which then leads to ..... impact on the market and prices. It happens naturally but it is possible for small action groups to significantly push the process along, and even create changes of direction and so on.

Yes there are groups of people who would be very resistant to changing their attitudes, beliefs and behaviour - but so what? There are many millions who are primed and ready to hear the HPCF'esque perspective and to participate in the change of the discourse environment - which as you correctly point out will happen one way or another (even with those resistant groups you identify present).

We should, and could do this. At worst it is better to have tried than to have not tried at all - why let the VI's dominate and shape the discourse environment when we don't have to?