A Store Of Value.

[Mark Uttley]

gold just hit $1000.

I'm glad I bought my toga when I did.

[grumpy-old-man-returns]

I'm glad I bought my toga when I did.

funninly enough I was just thinking about you......& a few others.

[grumpy-old-man-returns]

must be due for another take down soon

yes I must admit there seems to be a common consensus from some of the goldbugs that it's still not time yet & a drop is expected, before charging through $1000.

I have been sat hovering over the buy button for a few days now.......

[lowrentyieldmakessense(honest!)]

yes I must admit there seems to be a common consensus from some of the goldbugs that it's still not time yet & a drop is expected, before charging through $1000.

I have been sat hovering over the buy button for a few days now.......

worth listening to

link

Should You Buy Gold Now?

What was the SEC doing...?

But first, what the stock market and the economy are doing...

In the past two days, the price of gold has shot up more than $40. It's now near $1,000 an ounce.

Why? We don't know. Rumors, talk, noise...there's plenty of that. But as for why investors are suddenly putting so much money into gold, we'll have to wait to find out.

But should you buy gold now? The answer is simple: yes and no.

The Trade of the Decade is still buy gold/sell stocks. And the decade isn't over. If you have US stocks, this is a good time to sell. The Dow went up 63 points yesterday – a weak bounce after several days of losses.

This is no time to hold stocks – for the reasons we outlined yesterday.

But gold? Should you buy gold and hope to get rich when gold shoots up to $3,000 an ounce? A bad idea, in our opinion. You should buy gold to protect your assets. The risk is in the paper money...because they can create as much of it as they please. And they're under pressure now to create a lot. You buy gold as insurance against inflation, a dollar bust, a bear market in stocks and bonds, or a financial crisis. Gold is nature's money. It is better than manmade money. Because, with gold, what you have is what you've got. They can't artificially depreciate it or easily increase the quantity of it. That's why the feds don't like it. It won't support their cause du jour – whether it is a war, a bailout, stimulus, health care, or whatever. Gold doesn't cooperate with the financial engineers. That's why it's a good thing to hold when you think the financial engineers are making a mistake.

But our view is that while the engineers are making a mistake, they're not very good at it even when they're making a mistake they're good at. Typically, they're pretty good at causing inflation. But now the credit bubble is deflating, not inflating. It will take them a few years before they become reckless enough to move prices up again. And then, they'll probably overshoot their objectives considerably.

In the meantime, there's no inflation to speak of...no dollar crisis...no bond bust. So we wouldn't expect the price of gold to soar...not just yet. That's the big surprise – that this period of deflation will last longer than expected. Then, when it begins to seem permanent, inflation will suddenly come roaring back.

By then, most investors will have given up on gold...especially those who were speculating on it going to $3,000. It will go to $3,000, but only after speculators have dropped their positions.

[grumpy-old-man-returns]

a very funny vid coutesy of bigtbigt from GEI;

[Minos]

worth listening to

link

I've gone off Bill Bonner a bit since he said, in one of his publications, that Mr Frisby was one of the most respected analysts in the gold investment business. It's funny, because I thought that only a couple of years ago DF was a stand up comedian.

[grumpy-old-man-returns]

worth listening to

thanks for the bill bonner link, just skimmed it.

I have also just (literally) watched a denninger vid, thought it was you that gave me the link, can't find where I got it from now.....

I have waaaay to many tabs open today in firefox.

I have pm'd you lowrent.

Edited September 8, 2009 by grumpy-old-man-returns

[grumpy-old-man-returns]

I've gone off Bill Bonner a bit since he said, in one of his publications, that Mr Frisby was one of the most respected analysts in the gold investment business. It's funny, because I thought that only a couple of years ago DF was a stand up comedian.

oh err, controversial Mr Minos.

never realised you were watching that closely.......

[Minos]

oh err, controversial Mr Minos.

never realised you were watching that closely.......

I'm cursed with a memory. I remember so many things I wish I never knew in the first place.

No disrespect to Mr Frisby intended btw.

[grumpy-old-man-returns]

I'm cursed with a memory. I remember so many things I wish I never knew in the first place.

No disrespect to Mr Frisby intended btw.

I always keep an open mind wrt to everything I do.

If I walk into a company as a new employee, I tend to make my own mind up about people, not taking current long standing employees views as my own. It holds back my promotion opportunities but sits well with my moral conscience.

I never give credence just because others have stated it is so.

[Minos]

I always keep an open mind wrt to everything I do.

If I walk into a company as a new employee, I tend to make my own mind up about people, not taking current long standing employees views as my own. It holds back my promotion opportunities but sits well with my moral conscience.

I never give credence just because others have stated it is so.

Your own man. Way to go.

[grumpy-old-man-returns]

anyone watching HSBC's chairman Green talking on gloomburg atm ?

fook me, top bankers who have been taking the p1ss, discussing moral ethics, down with capitalism type comments (not literally of course) etc....

[wren]

I've gone off Bill Bonner a bit since he said, in one of his publications, that Mr Frisby was one of the most respected analysts in the gold investment business. It's funny, because I thought that only a couple of years ago DF was a stand up comedian.

I thought he was a TV narrator.

[lowrentyieldmakessense(honest!)]

an old one from Max

[lowrentyieldmakessense(honest!)]

oops

has barrick been barricked

I am still not committed to the conspiracy theory according to which Barrick has allowed itself to be used by policymakers in the U.S. to cap the price of gold, although I must admit that the circumstantial evidence has become a notch more circumstantial with this latest announcement. To me it looks like the desperation of a passenger aboard the sinking Titanic who has lost his life saver. I base my judgment on the timing. To make such an announcement at a time when the gold price is challenging the $1000 level is a miscalculation of Babelian proportions, not to say a suicidal dash to the exit. All this time was wasted, while the gold price was under pressure, when exactly the same announcement would have been helpful to Barrick — as it has to Newmont. It is too late now. I do not see how Barrick can remain a viable business entity once it has lost its tether, real or imagined, tying it to the U.S. Treasury. My sympathy is with the shareholders of Barrick, who are going to fare no better than those of Lehmann Brothers. What people do not seem to understand is that gold locked up in ore is one thing, and gold locked up in vaults is another. There are times, such as now, when their values part company. Why? Because too many gold mines are just a conduit to make the shareholder and his money part company. Remember Mark Twain having said that a gold mine is a hole in the ground with a liar standing guard? Remember Bre-X? It is so much easier to fool people than doing the back-breaking work of bringing up gold locked in the ores deep underground.

Aaron Regent, the new President and CEO of Barrick, commented on the company’s announcement as follows:

“The gold hedge-book has been a particular concern among our shareholders and the broader market which we believe has obscured the many positive developments within the company. As a result of today’s decision we have addressed that concern and maintained our financial flexibility. With the industry’s largest production and reserves, Barrick provides exceptional leverage to the gold price, which we expect will be further enhanced as we build our new generation of low-cost mines.â€

But leverage works both ways. In the case of Barrick it has always worked the other way. Mr. Regent sounds as if the troubles of Barrick were now over as management has finally decided to bite the bullet. They are not. The agony will last until the last vestiges of the nightmare of “hedging†will be erased. Even in the optimistic appraisal of management it will take at least one year. In reality, it will take much longer, as ever higher gold prices will frustrate efforts to close the hedge-book for once and all. The fact is that the wolf is at the door and refuses to leave. The problem of the hedge-book will keep resurfacing, until everybody will understand that it is unmanageable. The cat is chasing its own tail.

The job cut out for Barrick is the job of Sysiphus. He was a king who betrayed Zeus’ secrets. As a punishment he was confined to Tartarus and made to roll up a boulder to the top of the mountain only to see it falling back, and his travail would start all over again.

When everybody sees Barrick as the latter-day Sysiphus, the company will give up the ghost, and the cheerful creditors will happily carve up the rich caracass, with former shareholders looking on in dismay.

that sounds like a good job for brown and blair

Edited September 15, 2009 by lowrentyieldmakessense(honest!)

[wren]

Below we list the popular consensus about gold that we heard over the years since 2000, prefaced by the cumulative average gold price that year.

What they said, when they said it, and the gold price that year:

1. Gold $271: "Gold will continue to decline as it has for 20 years to $200 or lower."

2. Gold $275: "Gold is certain to continue its decline to $200 or lower due to deflation following the collapse of the stock market bubble." (That was the year we backed up the truck.)

3. Gold $310: "Despite a modest recent rise due to increased gold demand driven by investors�€™ fear associated with the 9/11 attacks, gold will soon resume its decline to $200 or lower once the fear subsides."

4. Gold $363: "The rise in the gold price since 2001 is due to a combination of temporary factors, such as investors�€™ fears about oil and inflation related to the War in Iraq and a weak dollar. Soon the positive outcome of the war will be clear, the dollar will strengthen, and gold demand will drop off, pushing prices back down toward $200."

5. Gold $410: "Economic recovery is pushing up gold demand and prices. The Treasury department has restated its strong dollar policy. Gold will soon lose its luster and fall back to $300."

6. Gold $445: "Gold prices increased only slightly this year over last year, indicating a topping in the gold price. Next year gold prices will fall to $300 or lower."

7. Gold $604: "The spike in the price of gold this year is due to short term dollar weakness. Look for the dollar to rally and gold to decline back to more normal levels below $400 starting next year."

8. Gold $695: "Gold traded mostly sideways over the last year, indicating a topping in the gold price. Look for gold to decline to well under $500 next year."

9. Gold $872: Early in the year, "Gold is participating in a bubble in commodities. When the commodity bubble pops, gold will fall more than 50% along with oil and other commodities." Later in the year: "Gold has crashed to $716 along with stocks and commodities and will continue to decline to $500 next year."

10. Gold $924: "The gold price reflects widespread concern about the financial system in the wake of the global financial crisis. As the system steadies, the gold price will drift down to under $700."

What does each popular consensus position about gold have in common? One, wrong every time. Two, every few years the prediction of the following year's price "bottom" was increased in ratchet-like fashion. Waiting to buy based on the consensus has been a mistake eight years running.

http://www.itulip.com/forums/showthread.ph...1715#post121715

[lowrentyieldmakessense(honest!)]

[lowrentyieldmakessense(honest!)]

where are the deflationistas

[grumpy-old-man-returns]

where are the deflationistas

in that beach hut above.

edited - oops, forgot it was the comex hut. In the hut's behind then ? then change the 'demand' tsunami to 'inflation'

Edited September 17, 2009 by grumpy-old-man-returns

[Number79]

where are the deflationistas

at home counting all of their cash, cash is king dontyaknow

[wren]

Below we list the popular consensus about gold that we heard over the years since 2000, prefaced by the cumulative average gold price that year.

What they said, when they said it, and the gold price that year:

1. Gold $271: "Gold will continue to decline as it has for 20 years to $200 or lower."

2. Gold $275: "Gold is certain to continue its decline to $200 or lower due to deflation following the collapse of the stock market bubble." (That was the year we backed up the truck.)

3. Gold $310: "Despite a modest recent rise due to increased gold demand driven by investors�€™ fear associated with the 9/11 attacks, gold will soon resume its decline to $200 or lower once the fear subsides."

4. Gold $363: "The rise in the gold price since 2001 is due to a combination of temporary factors, such as investors�€™ fears about oil and inflation related to the War in Iraq and a weak dollar. Soon the positive outcome of the war will be clear, the dollar will strengthen, and gold demand will drop off, pushing prices back down toward $200."

5. Gold $410: "Economic recovery is pushing up gold demand and prices. The Treasury department has restated its strong dollar policy. Gold will soon lose its luster and fall back to $300."

6. Gold $445: "Gold prices increased only slightly this year over last year, indicating a topping in the gold price. Next year gold prices will fall to $300 or lower."

7. Gold $604: "The spike in the price of gold this year is due to short term dollar weakness. Look for the dollar to rally and gold to decline back to more normal levels below $400 starting next year."

8. Gold $695: "Gold traded mostly sideways over the last year, indicating a topping in the gold price. Look for gold to decline to well under $500 next year."

9. Gold $872: Early in the year, "Gold is participating in a bubble in commodities. When the commodity bubble pops, gold will fall more than 50% along with oil and other commodities." Later in the year: "Gold has crashed to $716 along with stocks and commodities and will continue to decline to $500 next year."

10. Gold $924: "The gold price reflects widespread concern about the financial system in the wake of the global financial crisis. As the system steadies, the gold price will drift down to under $700."

What does each popular consensus position about gold have in common? One, wrong every time. Two, every few years the prediction of the following year's price "bottom" was increased in ratchet-like fashion. Waiting to buy based on the consensus has been a mistake eight years running.

http://www.itulip.com/forums/showthread.ph...1715#post121715

[TheEmperorHasNoClothes]

This thread brings a song into my head...

SILENCE IS GOLDEN!

[grumpy-old-man-returns]

This thread brings a song into my head...

SILENCE IS GOLDEN!

indeed.

those waiting for a big collapse in gold are in for a huge shock.

Edited September 23, 2009 by grumpy-old-man-returns

[dr ray]

Odd that this thread survived on here.

Generally any discussion on real money gets shunted to the gold and PM forum

[grumpy-old-man-returns]

Odd that this thread survived on here.

Generally any discussion on real money gets shunted to the gold and PM forum

I did say they could move it if they wanted too, can't remember what page that was on.

Errol wanted it to stay here though iirc.