Uk Oil Output Down 10%

[Timberrrrrrrr]

ThisisMoney

OIL production in the UK dropped by 10% last year, one of the biggest falls seen among oil producers.

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The UK pumped out 228,000 fewer barrels of oil from the North Sea and the UK became a net importer of oil for the first time in 13 years.

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New figures from BP show that only Austrlaia saw a bigger fall in the rate of oil production – 13.9%. According to analysts, mature fields in the North Sea came online thanks to the application of high-tech exploration and production techniques. As a result, the downturn when fields start to decline is all the faster.

Strange coincidence that Aus are also ahead when it comes to house prices falls

[clv101]

UK falls could have been larger than 10%

Also see here for excellent month by month oil production figures. Show's Australian oil production falling ~40% since a peak early 2000.

[OnlyMe]

Great Link!

[ajh]

UK falls could have been larger than 10%

Also see here for excellent month by month oil production figures.  Show's Australian oil production falling ~40% since a peak early 2000.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

However, if you look at overall ENERGY production, rather than just oil, Australia is going ahead by leaps and bounds. Very large coal and natural gas industries, plus a large percentage of the world's uranium which could become significant if Asian plans for large-scale nuclear power generation go ahead. (I believe China is talking about HUNDREDS of reactors over the next 10-15 years.)

Edited June 17, 2005 by ajh

[clv101]

Today could see a new dollar record but in other currencies we're already in record territory.

The previous high on April 2nd at $58.20 corresponded to a Euro price of E45.17, UK Pound price of £30.99 and Japanese Yen price of Y6,242.

Todays price of $57.60 corresponds to a Euro price of E47.12, UK Pound price of $31.47 and Japanese Yen price of 6,251.

http://www.nymex.com/jsp/markets/lsco_fut_cso.jsp

[Smurf1976]

However, if you look at overall ENERGY production, rather than just oil, Australia is going ahead by leaps and bounds.  Very large coal and natural gas industries, plus a large percentage of the world's uranium which could become significant if Asian plans for large-scale nuclear power generation go ahead.  (I believe China is talking about HUNDREDS of reactors over the next 10-15 years.)

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

That's all true but just one rather big problem. You can't use any of these energy sources as a direct replacement for oil with the machinery etc. that we have today or even the cars etc that we are still building. And there is no reasonable prospect of commencing production of coal-fired aircraft or nuclear trucks in the foreseeable future. Hence whilst there are long term solutions, a short term crisis seems unavoidable IMHO. We simply aren't anywhere near ready to even begin the switch to something else.

[Bee Bear]

Today could see a new dollar record but in other currencies we're already in record territory.

The previous high on April 2nd at $58.20 corresponded to a Euro price of E45.17, UK Pound price of £30.99 and Japanese Yen price of Y6,242.

Todays price of $57.60 corresponds to a Euro price of E47.12, UK Pound price of $31.47 and Japanese Yen price of 6,251.

When oil goes up in price (in whatever denomination) doesn't the UK pound usually go up against the dollar. or is this just a recent thing? Any idea why?

[ajh]

That's all true but just one rather big problem. You can't use any of these energy sources as a direct replacement for oil with the machinery etc. that we have today or even the cars etc that we are still building. And there is no reasonable prospect of commencing production of coal-fired aircraft or nuclear trucks in the foreseeable future. Hence whilst there are long term solutions, a short term crisis seems unavoidable IMHO. We simply aren't anywhere near ready to even begin the switch to something else.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Point taken.

GTL and CTL are currently only about 50% efficient (on an ENERGY basis, that is). I once read somewhere that the Chevron/SASOL process could produce very clean-burning diesel for about 20$US/bbl plus the cost of the synthesis gas. Now that there is reasonable certainty that oil prices are going to stay over 40$US/bbl for the medium term, you could see some plants built in various places. I predict CTL rather than GTL because I suspect Natural Gas prices are going to stay high also.

C/LNG and LPG are OK for commercial land vehicles, but certainly couldn't work for aircraft and CNG doesn't work very well for cars.

The point I was making before was that Australia won't suffer economic problems because of falling oil production and high oil prices, because our oil import costs are met by other energy exports. The UK situation might be different.

[zzg113]

The point I was making before was that Australia won't suffer economic problems because of falling oil production and high oil prices, because our oil import costs are met by other energy exports.

This argument doesn't stand up for me. Australia has one of the highest rates of oil consumption per capita in the world (for much the same reasons as America: it's a big continent). Oil prices are likely to remain high ($40 bbl+) for the forseeable future. It's reserves of coal are less than a third the size of those in America or Russia. China has plenty of coal of it's own. Yes, if China goes for nuclear in a big way, Oz will be sitting pretty.

A ) that (China going the nuclear route) would be likely to make the US very nervous (see concerns about Iran)

B ) I think China will exploit their coal resources before nuclear.

http://www.nationmaster.com/graph-T/ene_oil_con_cap

[Smurf1976]

Point taken. 

GTL and CTL are currently only about 50% efficient (on an ENERGY basis, that is).  I once read somewhere that the Chevron/SASOL process could produce very clean-burning diesel for about 20$US/bbl plus the cost of the synthesis gas.  Now that there is reasonable certainty that oil prices are going to stay over 40$US/bbl for the medium term, you could see some plants built in various places.  I predict CTL rather than GTL because I suspect Natural Gas prices are going to stay high also.

C/LNG and LPG are OK for commercial land vehicles, but certainly couldn't work for aircraft and CNG doesn't work very well for cars.

The point I was making before was that Australia won't suffer economic problems because of falling oil production and high oil prices, because our oil import costs are met by other energy exports.  The UK situation might be different.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Agreed about GTL and CTL. It will happen IMO but I think that significant GTL development utilising otherwise stranded gas will be the first. Shell have already looked at the idea of floating production - ship sits above the gas field and exports liquids (GTL) to tankers which "dock" beside it. Completely self contained on a ship. Economically, they would just see it as an alternative to LNG or pipeline to the nearest gas networks as a means of developing the gas field. It's certainly not a total solution to worldwide liquid fuel needs though. Not by a long shot. (Similar floating production facilities are already used with conventional oil production.)

Aircraft - yes, big problem there. Actually that's the single biggest "end use" problem which comes to mind. If you make aviation expensive then to my understanding it becomes largely unviable - the discount airlines like Virgin Blue and Jetstar (Oz, no idea what airlines you have in UK ) work on the principle of high volumes to lower costs in a self-sustaining process. Make it cheaper and that increases volume which lowers costs which makes fares cheaper which increases volume which lowers costs wich makes fares cheaper which increases volume... Aviation has been a major souce of oil demand growth in recent years and that could easily reverse IMO.

As for CNG vehicles, I think that we might not have much choice. Lots of problems yes, but unlike all the other alternatives it's a "here and now" option. Just get a few factories in China to start churning out conversion kits and you can refuel at home... Not great but as an alternative it's by far the most readily available. LPG is far better in practical terms but is fairly limited since it's a byproduct - useful but limited in scale.

Given the likely need for gas for transport and also for fertiliser production, industrial use etc. I really do think we should stop using it for electricity generation which could relatively easily be done using other energy sources. Simply not building any more gas-fired power plants and giving operational priority to non-oil or gas plants would be largely effective and not overly expensive in most situations. Not expensive compared to running out of gas anyway. Gas is limited just like oil after all and the best guess at this stage suggests that in 25 years time we will be with gas where we are with oil now.

As for Australia's economy, I think you need to consider the order of events. Australia already exports coal, LNG and Uranium in relatively large volumes, particularly in the case of coal. The country is already totally dependent on this revenue - in fact Australia's current account deficit at about 7.2% of GDP is amongst the worst in the world - even the US looks better. Large scale oil imports are, however, a relatively recent occurrence. That they are now occurring is thus a negative when it comes on top of an already bad trade situation.

I would agree that Australia might do better economically than the net energy importers. Revenue from coal etc. will certainly be a help. But once it gets to the point where the large physical size of Oz and the freight distances start to become a real issue for non-energy industris then I think the physically more compact countries will have an advantage. Of course, heavy investment in Australian railways would help reduce problems.

Just my two cents worth. I could be wrong.

Edited June 17, 2005 by Smurf1976

[ajh]

Just my two cents worth. I could be wrong. 

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Mine also ,

I should have made it clearer I am also posting from Oz (Canberra).

Cheers

[Harry Sacks]

Mine also    ,

I should have made it clearer I am also posting from Oz (Canberra).

Cheers

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

No way! I'm posting from Wagga.