BearNecessities

Definate hold Not enough data to justify a rise. A cut would be inflationery suicide.

I agree and hope you (we) are correct

She is a bit of a known uber-bear to be honest. What did Declan say to that? and why isn't he at a fried egg making factory or something like that?

which rag comes up with the Headline "Crash Gordon" and a suitably dour picture of him to accompany him. My money is on the independant! Back to the Land Registry figs, if what we want is going to happen then we need overall no better than static (down from +0.4% last month) and we need a majority of regions in negative terrority (MoM). By November, when last autumn's strong growth will have worked it's way out of the figures, we need to see 30% + of the counties in negative YoY growth and the first of the regions going negative YoY. Otherwise, I fear a soft landing.

I can assure everyone that 8.02% is not available anywhere in the UK residential market as of today. It possibly is in the commercial market but it will be risky - ie. crap tenants, low or zero development potential, poor lettings market.

I'm much more interested in the monthly LR report due out the day before at 1100hrs as it drills down into much more detail. I am expecting static growth with a majority of regions either static or negative. There won't be any YoY falls yet - you will have to wait until September for the 1st of those (Powys, Monmouthshire) However by November 2007 (against strong growth in Autumn 2006), I expect 20-30% of areas to be YoY negative. The first of the regions will go negative YoY on that month too (either Wales, West Midlands or East Midlands) don't know if the above will prove to be correct, but we need something like that if we are going to see the sharp correction that this site and it's users crave.

Age 36 Was on the property market at 21 but gave away my home to my first wife when we divorced in 2002 in return for reasonable maintenance arrangement. House had £60K equity then - now £220K. Will not be buying until c.2009/10

Generally they will take what you can pay them without adding interest - it is however difficult to put a time limit on it - I had to go the IVA route because most of the debt was to the state.

I think IVAs are a disgrace (and I have one) I failed to pay the government £100K in VAT and Tax and also Nat West allowed my personal current account to go £30K overdrawn. That together with various loans and credit card bills added up to nearly £200K I will pay back in the course of 5 years (3 years gone now) around £85K - The administrator gets about £12K, so £120K or so gets written off. I don't own a home, but am director of 3 companies which is why bankrupcty was not really an option. In some countries, I'd would have been thrown off a cliff for doing what I did. And before anyone asks - I spunked the money on coke and gambling. Both additions are thnakfully in remission as I write today.

I had an AST that ended about 5 years ago. It was in a great location (West End of London) but in a very poor state of repair (the kitchen, bathroom, decor and carpets were all original features - house was built in 1950s or 1960s) which meant the rent was suppressed. Various people had lived there over a period of 5 to 6 years and my name was the last one on the AST. About 2 years after I left, I got a letter from solicitors claiming £32,500 in dilapidations including a new kitchen, bathroom, carpeting and decoration! I had to laugh. I reminded the solicitor in writing of a number of points of law, not least that their claim was illegal and timed out. I never heard from them again, which is a shame as I was ready to counter sue for harrassment.

Quite a good call I think - although RPI may be a touch on the high side (don't forget two IR rises in 2006 will work their way out by then) Following on, I think we will see by the start of Q3, 2008 (i.e roughly one year from now) CPI @ 3.0% RPI @ 5.9% Base Rate 6.75% HPI - Halifax and Nationwide between -1.0% and 1.0% (however in reality this will mean 10% less than now, as improvements to homes skew that stats slightly and cheap houses at auction won't necessarily be in their figures) GDP - 1.2% and falling Commercial Property - 17% less (direct link between yields and IRs)